Logo: to the web site of Uppsala University

uu.sePublications from Uppsala University
Change search
Link to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Alternative names
Publications (10 of 40) Show all publications
Davies, S., Pettersson, T. & Öberg, M. (2023). Organized violence 1989-2022, and the return of conflict between states. Journal of Peace Research, 60(4), 691-708
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Organized violence 1989-2022, and the return of conflict between states
2023 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 60, no 4, p. 691-708Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2022, fatalities from organized violence increased by a staggering 97%, compared to the previous year, from 120,000 in 2021 to 237,000 in 2022, making 2022 the deadliest year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The increase was driven by two, particularly deadly, state-based armed conflicts: the Russia-Ukraine war, and the war in Ethiopia against TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front). With more than 81,500 and 101,000 fatalities respectively, these are the two most deadly state-based conflict-years recorded in the post-1989 period. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years, and the first interstate armed conflict since World War II where a major power in the international system seeks both territorial gains for itself and the subjugation of another state through regime change. We have witnessed an emerging trend of increased conflict between states in the last decade, including cases where major powers support opposite sides in internationalized intrastate conflict. UCDP recorded 55 active state-based armed conflicts in 2022, an increase of one compared to the previous year. Eight of these conflicts reached the level of war. While the fatalities caused by non-state conflict decreased somewhat when compared to 2021, the number of non-state conflicts, as well as both the number of civilians killed in one-sided violence and the number of actors carrying out such violence, increased in 2022.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2023
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, interstate rivalry, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, war
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies) Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-510981 (URN)10.1177/00223433231185169 (DOI)001024407400001 ()
Available from: 2023-09-06 Created: 2023-09-06 Last updated: 2023-09-06Bibliographically approved
Davies, S., Pettersson, T. & Öberg, M. (2022). Organized violence 1989-2021 and drone warfare. Journal of Peace Research, 59(4), 593-610
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Organized violence 1989-2021 and drone warfare
2022 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 59, no 4, p. 593-610Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed between 2014 and 2019, was decisively reversed in 2021 as fatalities increased significantly. UCDP registered more than 119,100 deaths in organized violence in 2021, a 46% increase from the previous year. The increase was largely driven by escalating conflicts in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Yemen. Fatalities increased in all three categories of organized violence, despite a decrease in the number of active state-based conflicts, as well as the number of actors carrying out one-sided violence against civilians. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2021, a decrease by two compared to the previous year. Five of the conflicts were active at the intensity of war, the lowest number of wars since 2010. Violence in 2021 was thus concentrated to fewer but bloodier conflicts. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, have become increasingly important features of modern conflicts, and the trend in their usage is discussed in the special feature section. UAV usage has since 2019 dispersed among a significant larger number of actors, even as the downscaling in the involvement of the United States in the war on terror has led to a decrease in drone-related fatalities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2022
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, drone, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, war
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-481426 (URN)10.1177/00223433221108428 (DOI)000821080900001 ()
Available from: 2022-08-12 Created: 2022-08-12 Last updated: 2023-08-23Bibliographically approved
Pettersson, T., Davies, S., Deniz, A., Engström, G., Hawach, N., Högbladh, S., . . . Öberg, M. (2021). Organized violence 1989-2020, with a special emphasis on Syria. Journal of Peace Research, 58(4), 809-825, Article ID 00223433211026126.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Organized violence 1989-2020, with a special emphasis on Syria
Show others...
2021 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 58, no 4, p. 809-825, article id 00223433211026126Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed for five consecutive years, broke upwards in 2020 and deaths in organized violence seem to have settled on a high plateau. UCDP registered more than 80,100 deaths in organized violence in 2020, compared to 76,300 in 2019. The decrease in violence in Afghanistan and Syria was countered by escalating conflicts in, for example, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Azerbaijan and Tigray, Ethiopia. Moreover, the call for a global ceasefire following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic failed to produce any results. In fact, the number of active state-based and non-state conflicts, as well as the number of actors carrying out one-sided violence against civilians, increased when compared to 2019. UCDP noted a record-high number of 56 state-based conflicts in 2020, including eight wars. Most of the conflicts occurred in Africa, as the region registered 30 state-based conflicts, including nine new or restarted ones.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage PublicationsSAGE Publications, 2021
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, Syria, war
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-451417 (URN)10.1177/00223433211026126 (DOI)000671413200001 ()
Available from: 2021-09-07 Created: 2021-09-07 Last updated: 2024-01-15Bibliographically approved
Hall, J., Kahn, D. T., Skoog, E. & Öberg, M. (2021). War exposure, altruism and the recalibration of welfare tradeoffs towards threatening social categories. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 94, Article ID 104101.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>War exposure, altruism and the recalibration of welfare tradeoffs towards threatening social categories
2021 (English)In: Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, ISSN 0022-1031, E-ISSN 1096-0465, Vol. 94, article id 104101Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

How does war shape human altruism? Some find warfare increases generosity within groups only. Others maintain that war’s prosocial effects extend to outgroup members as well. To make sense of these disparate findings, we offer a theoretical framework that highlights the role of threat sensitivity in altruism. Refugees from Syria and Iraq (N = 1521) completed a welfare tradeoff task and threat perceptions scale where the other's group identity, gender and age were experimentally varied. We found that individuals belonging to social categories associated with more threat (outgroup members, males, and younger individuals) were afforded less altruism compared to individuals belonging to non-threatening social categories (ingroup members, females and the elderly). War exposure enhanced bias against threatening social categories through increased threat-sensitivity. Our results have implications for understanding how warfare shapes altruism and welfare tradeoffs in light of cross-cutting social categories and for policies promoting post-conflict cooperation.

Keywords
war exposure, threat perceptions, welfare tradeoff ratio, altruism
National Category
Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-430810 (URN)10.1016/j.jesp.2021.104101 (DOI)000638053800009 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2015-06564
Available from: 2021-01-12 Created: 2021-01-12 Last updated: 2021-05-24Bibliographically approved
Pettersson, T. & Öberg, M. (2020). Organized violence, 1989-2019. Journal of Peace Research, 57(4), 597-613
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Organized violence, 1989-2019
2020 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, no 4, p. 597-613Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities, almost 75,600, to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, this de-escalation in Syria is countered by increased violence in Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have relocated their efforts there. Furthermore, violence has continued to increase in Afghanistan; UCDP recorded more than 31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the globe. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts, which remained on a historically high level. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2019, including seven wars. Twenty-eight state-based conflicts involved IS (Islamic State), al-Qaida or their affiliates. In the past decade, conflicts involving these transnational jihadist groups have driven many of the trends in organized violence.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2020
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, transnational jihadist, war
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-418834 (URN)10.1177/0022343320934986 (DOI)000542311200001 ()
Available from: 2020-09-04 Created: 2020-09-04 Last updated: 2020-09-04Bibliographically approved
Pettersson, T., Högbladh, S. & Öberg, M. (2019). Organized violence, 1989-2018 and peace agreements. Journal of Peace Research, 56(4), 589-603
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Organized violence, 1989-2018 and peace agreements
2019 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 56, no 4, p. 589-603Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article reports on trends in organized violence and peace agreements collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The number of fatalities in organized violence decreased for the fourth consecutive year, to reach the lowest level since 2012. In 2018, UCDP recorded almost 76,000 deaths: a decrease of 20% compared to 2017, and 43% compared to the latest peak in 2014. State-based armed conflict drives this downward trend in organized violence, with Syria accounting for much of the change. The number of civilians killed in one-sided violence also dropped in 2018, reaching its lowest level since 2012. In contrast, non-state conflict remained on a high level. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts. In fact, the world has seen a new peak in the number of conflicts after 2014, matched only by the number of conflicts in the early 1990s. In 1991, the peak in the number of armed conflicts corresponded with a similar peak in the number of signed peace agreements. This was followed by a decrease in the number of conflicts in the late 1990s and early 2000s. However, the most recent rise in armed conflicts has not been matched by a similar rise in the number of peace agreements. Two circumstances that characterize the recent rise in conflicts have also been found to make conflicts harder to solve: explicit religious claims and high levels of internationalization.

Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, peace agreements, war
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies) Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-390907 (URN)10.1177/0022343319856046 (DOI)000474240300009 ()
Available from: 2019-08-19 Created: 2019-08-19 Last updated: 2020-08-14Bibliographically approved
Öberg, M., Taub, S. & Möller, F. (2011). Challenges from within: Introducing the Uppsala Coup Events Dataset. In: : . Paper presented at Research seminar, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, May 12, 2011..
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Challenges from within: Introducing the Uppsala Coup Events Dataset
2011 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Other academic)
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-166207 (URN)
Conference
Research seminar, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, May 12, 2011.
Note

Paper prepared for presentation at the research seminar, at the Department of peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, May 12, 2011.

Available from: 2012-01-11 Created: 2012-01-11 Last updated: 2019-12-11Bibliographically approved
Höglund, K. & Öberg, M. (2011). Doing Empirical Peace Research. In: Kristine Höglund and Magnus Öberg (Ed.), Understanding Peace Research: Methods and Challenges: (pp. 3-13). London and New York: Routledge
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Doing Empirical Peace Research
2011 (English)In: Understanding Peace Research: Methods and Challenges / [ed] Kristine Höglund and Magnus Öberg, London and New York: Routledge , 2011, p. 3-13Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London and New York: Routledge, 2011
Keywords
peace research. methodology
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-147872 (URN)978-0-415-57198-2 (ISBN)
Available from: 2011-03-01 Created: 2011-03-01 Last updated: 2019-12-11
Öberg, M. & Sollenberg, M. (2011). Gathering conflict information using news resources. In: Kristine Höglund and Magnus Öberg (Ed.), Understanding peace research: methods and challenges (pp. 47-73). London: Routledge
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Gathering conflict information using news resources
2011 (English)In: Understanding peace research: methods and challenges / [ed] Kristine Höglund and Magnus Öberg, London: Routledge, 2011, p. 47-73Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Every minute of every day, hundreds if not thousands of journalists around the world are working to collect and disseminate information on matters related to armed conflicts. Journalists provide ‘a first rough draft of history that will never really be completed about a world we can never really understand.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: Routledge, 2011
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-148029 (URN)9780415571975 (ISBN)9780203828557 (ISBN)
Available from: 2011-03-01 Created: 2011-03-01 Last updated: 2019-12-11Bibliographically approved
Höglund, K. & Öberg, M. (2011). Improving Information Gathering and Evaluation. In: Kristine Höglund and Magnus Öberg (Ed.), Understanding Peace Research: Methods and Challenges (pp. 185-198). London: Routledge
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Improving Information Gathering and Evaluation
2011 (English)In: Understanding Peace Research: Methods and Challenges / [ed] Kristine Höglund and Magnus Öberg, London: Routledge , 2011, p. 185-198Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: Routledge, 2011
Keywords
peace research, methodology
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-147873 (URN)978-0-415-57197-5 (ISBN)
Available from: 2011-03-01 Created: 2011-03-01 Last updated: 2019-12-11
Projects
Forced Expulsion of Civilians in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict ResearchForced Migration in Armed Conflicts: Scope and Duration; Uppsala University; Publications
Melander, E., Öberg, M. & Hall, J. (2009). Are ‘New Wars’ More Atrocious?: Battle Severity, Civilians Killed and Forced Migration Before and After the End of the Cold Wa. European Journal of International Relations, 15(3), 505-536Melander, E. & Öberg, M. (2007). The Threat of Violence and Forced Migration: Geographical Scope Trumps Intensity of Fighting. Civil Wars, 9(2), 156-173Melander, E., Öberg, M. & Hall, J. (2006). The ‘New Wars’ Debate Revisited: An Empirical Evaluation of the Atrociousness of ‘New Wars’. Department of peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, UppsalaMelander, E. & Öberg, M. (2006). Time to Go?: Duration Dependence in Forced Migration. International Interactions, 32(2), 129-152Melander, E. & Öberg, M. (2004). Forced Migration: the Effects of Magnitude and Scope of Fighting. Uppsala universitet
Political Systems, Resource Distribution and Civil War; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Öberg, M. & Strøm, K. (2008). Introduction. In: Resources, governance and civil conflict: . Oxford: RoutledgeMelander, E. (2005). Gender Eqaulity and Intrastate Armed Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 49(4), 695-714Melander, E. (2005). Political Gender Equality and State Human Rights Abuse. Journal of Peace Research, 42(5), 149-166
​Governance, Democratization, and Civil War; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Sollenberg, M. (2008). From Bullets to Ballots: Using the People as Arbitrators to Settle Civil Wars. In: Governance, Resources and Civil Conflict: . Routledge, OxfordÖberg, M. & Strøm, K. (2008). Introduction. In: Resources, governance and civil conflict: . Oxford: RoutledgeSollenberg, M. (2005). From Bullets to Ballots: Using the People as Arbitrators to Settle Civil Wars. In: : . Öberg, M. & Melander, E. (2005). Quality of Government and Civil War. In: : . Paper presented at The conference on the Quality of Government Conference: What It Is, How to Get It, Why It Matters, November 17-19, 2005, Göteborg.
Conflict and Democracy Program; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict ResearchPatrimonialism, Globalisation and Civil Conflict; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict ResearchProgramme on Governance, Conflict and Peacebuilding; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Nilsson, D. (2012). Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace. International Interactions, 38(2), 243-266Ohlson, T. (Ed.). (2012). From Intra-State War to Durable Peace: Conflict and Its Resolution in Africa after the Cold War. Dordrecht: Republic of Letters PublishingNilsson, D. & Söderberg Kovacs, M. (2011). Revisiting an Elusive Concept: A Review of the Debate on Spoilers in Peace Processes. International Studies Review, 13(4), 606-626Lindgren, M. (2011). Sexual Violence Beyond Conflict Termination: Impunity for Past Violations as a Recipe for New Ones?. Durban, South Africa: ACCORD (15)Höglund, K. & Jarstad, A. K. (2011). Toward Electoral Security: Experiences from KwaZulu-Natal. Africa Spectrum, 46(1), 33-59Themnér, A. (2011). Violence in Post-Conflict Societies: Remarginalization, Remobilizers and Relationships. Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon: RoutledgeNilsson, D. (2010). Agreements and Sustainability. In: Nigel J. Young (Ed.), The Oxford International Encyclopedia of Peace: Volume I (pp. 30-32). New York: Oxford University PressHöglund, K. & Söderberg Kovacs, M. (2010). Beyond the Absence of War: The Diversity of Peace in Post-Settlement Societies. Review of International Studies, 36(2), 367-390Höglund, K. & Jarstad, A. K. (2010). Strategies to Prevent and Manage Electoral Violence: Considerations for Policy. Durban: ACCORDNilsson, D. (2010). Turning Weakness into Strength: Military Capabilities, Multiple Rebel Groups and Negotiated Settlements. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27(3), 253-271
Transnational Linkages and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict [2009-01903_VR]; Uppsala UniversityPaul Huth föreslås till innehavare av Olof Palme-professuren för år 2012 [2011-07819_VR]; Uppsala UniversityThe Moral Psychology of Grievances in Intrastate Conflict [2018-02108_VR]; Uppsala UniversitySocieties at risk: The impact of armed conflict on human development [M21-0002_RJ]; Uppsala University; Publications
Döring, S., Kim, K. & Swain, A. (2024). Integrating socio-hydrology, and peace and conflict research. Journal of Hydrology, 633, Article ID 131000.
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-5127-9369

Search in DiVA

Show all publications