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Publications (10 of 30) Show all publications
Fjelde, H., Hultman, L. & Nilsson, D. (2019). Protection through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians. International Organization, 73(1), 103-131
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Protection through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians
2019 (English)In: International Organization, ISSN 0020-8183, E-ISSN 1531-5088, Vol. 73, no 1, p. 103-131Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Are UN peacekeepers effective in protecting civilians from violence? Existing studies examine this issue at the country level, thereby making it difficult to isolate the effect of peacekeepers and to assess the actual mechanism at work. We provide the first comprehensive evaluation of UN peacekeeping success in protecting civilians at the subnational level. We argue that peacekeepers through their sizable local presence can increase the political and military costs for warring actors to engage in civilian targeting. Since peacekeepers’ access to civilian populations rests on government consent, peacekeepers will primarily be effective in imposing these costs on rebel groups, but less so for government actors. To test these conjectures we combine new monthly data on the location of peacekeepers with data on the location and timing of civilian killings in Africa. Our findings suggest that local peacekeeping presence enhances the effectiveness of civilian protection against rebel abuse, but that UN peacekeeping struggles to protect civilians from government forces.

National Category
Political Science Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354931 (URN)10.1017/S0020818318000346 (DOI)000455664400004 ()
Funder
The Royal Swedish Academy of Letters, History and Antiquities (KVHAA)Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, P12-0787:1EU, European Research Council, ERC ADG 694640
Available from: 2018-06-25 Created: 2018-06-25 Last updated: 2019-02-04Bibliographically approved
Hegre, H., Allansson, M., Basedau, M., Colaresi, M., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., . . . Vestby, J. (2019). ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), 155-174
Open this publication in new window or tab >>ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
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2019 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 56, no 2, p. 155-174Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.

Keywords
Africa, armed conflict, forecasting
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-377187 (URN)10.1177/0022343319823860 (DOI)000461239400001 ()
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 694640Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC)
Available from: 2019-02-15 Created: 2019-02-15 Last updated: 2019-04-11Bibliographically approved
Svensson, I. & Nilsson, D. (2018). Disputes over the Divine: Introducing the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975–2015. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(5), 1127-1148
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Disputes over the Divine: Introducing the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975–2015
2018 (English)In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, ISSN 0022-0027, E-ISSN 1552-8766, Vol. 62, no 5, p. 1127-1148Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article introduces the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975 to 2015, which is a new data set suitable for analyzing the causes, dynamics, and resolution of religious conflicts. It contains information about key religious dimensions of conflicts: whether the issue at stake is religious, the actors’ religious identity, and fine-grained data about the type and salience of religious claims. The article presents the major features of the data set and describes patterns and trends that shed new light on religious conflicts, for example, by demonstrating that conflicts over Islamist claims have become more prevalent. We also illustrate the utility of the data. For instance, we show that there is great variation in lethality across conflicts with different types of Islamist claims, thereby offering a more nuanced understanding of the deadliness of religious conflicts. RELAC should be a valuable resource for scholars, examining religious dimensions of intrastate armed conflicts.

National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-337584 (URN)10.1177/0022002717737057 (DOI)000429866900009 ()
Funder
Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, NHS 14-1701:1
Available from: 2018-01-02 Created: 2018-01-02 Last updated: 2019-02-04Bibliographically approved
Jarstad, A. & Nilsson, D. (2018). Making and keeping promises: regime type and powersharing pacts in peace agreements. Peace and Change, 43(2), 1-27
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Making and keeping promises: regime type and powersharing pacts in peace agreements
2018 (English)In: Peace and Change, ISSN 0149-0508, E-ISSN 1468-0130, Vol. 43, no 2, p. 1-27Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Power sharing is increasingly recognized as an important tool forcreating sustainable peace in war-torn societies. However, we have limitedknowledge concerning why political, territorial, and military power-sharingpacts are reached and implemented. This article addresses this gap by providinga global study examining the signing and implementation of powersharing pactsin intrastate armed conflicts. We focus on how the type of political regime caninfluence these choices and theorize about the strategic incentives for warringparties in different types of regimes to sign and implement different pacts.Our large-N analysis is based on data on power-sharing provisions in eighty-threepeace accords in forty intrastate armed conflicts between 1989 and 2004. Inline with our theoretical expectations, we find that political and militarypacts are more likely to be signed in autocracies, whereas territorial pactsare more common in democracies. Somewhat surprisingly, we find no difference inthe implementation patterns across regimes.

National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-348360 (URN)10.1111/pech.12285 (DOI)
Funder
Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, M16-0297:1Swedish Research Council, 2013-6334Swedish Research Council, 2014-03847
Available from: 2018-04-12 Created: 2018-04-12 Last updated: 2018-04-12Bibliographically approved
Fjelde, H. & Nilsson, D. (2018). The Rise of Rebel Contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars. Journal of Peace Research, 55(5), 551-565
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Rise of Rebel Contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars
2018 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 55, no 5, p. 551-565Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-337943 (URN)10.1177/0022343318767497 (DOI)000441283400001 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2015-01235Swedish Research Council, 421-2009-1833Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, NHS 14-1701:1Swedish Research Council, Norska forskningsrådet, 250-441
Available from: 2018-01-05 Created: 2018-01-05 Last updated: 2019-06-27
Nilsson, D. & Svensson, I. (2017). Mapping armed conflicts over Islamist claims: exploring regional variations. In: SIPRI Yearbook 2017: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security: (pp. 58-65). London: Oxford University Press
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mapping armed conflicts over Islamist claims: exploring regional variations
2017 (English)In: SIPRI Yearbook 2017: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, London: Oxford University Press, 2017, p. 58-65Chapter in book (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: Oxford University Press, 2017
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-331157 (URN)
Funder
Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, NHS 14-1701:1
Available from: 2017-10-11 Created: 2017-10-11 Last updated: 2019-05-17
Nilsson, D. (2014). Civil society in peace accords and the durability of peace. Accord : an international review of peace initiatives, 25
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Civil society in peace accords and the durability of peace
2014 (English)In: Accord : an international review of peace initiatives, ISSN 1365-0742, Vol. 25Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.)) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: Conciliation Resources, 2014
National Category
Social Sciences Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-248224 (URN)
Available from: 2015-03-30 Created: 2015-03-30 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, D. & Kovacs Söderberg, M. (2013). Different Paths of Reconstruction: Military Reform in Post-War Sierra Leone and Liberia. International Peacekeeping, 20(1), 2-16
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Different Paths of Reconstruction: Military Reform in Post-War Sierra Leone and Liberia
2013 (English)In: International Peacekeeping, ISSN 1353-3312, E-ISSN 1743-906X, Vol. 20, no 1, p. 2-16Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Security Sector Reform (SSR) has developed into a key component of international peacebuilding agendas. However, there is a lack of sufficient knowledge of the advantages and drawbacks of different reform processes. This study offers a comparative analysis of two post-war states with diverse approaches to the reconstruction of the national armed forces after a civil war: Sierra Leone after the 1999 Lome Peace Accord, where the competing warring parties were integrated into a single force; and Liberia following the 2003 Accra Peace Agreement, where the old army was disbanded and a new force was recruited and built from scratch. The findings show that each approach was associated with distinct benefits and risks during the implementation process. However, the outcomes are also similar in many important respects, and raise questions about the long-term sustainability of these reforms.

National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-198633 (URN)10.1080/13533312.2013.761825 (DOI)000315865700002 ()
Available from: 2013-04-22 Created: 2013-04-22 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, D. (2012). Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace. International Interactions, 38(2), 243-266
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace
2012 (English)In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 38, no 2, p. 243-266Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Is peace more likely to prevail when the peace accord includes civil society actors such as religious groups, women's organizations, and human rights groups? This is the first statistical study that explores this issue. The article develops key claims in previous research regarding the role of civil society actors and durable peace, and proposes a set of hypotheses that focus on legitimacy in this process. The hypotheses are examined by employing unique data on the inclusion of civil society actors in all peace agreements in the post-Cold War period. The statistical analysis shows that inclusion of civil society actors in the peace settlement increases the durability of peace. The results further demonstrate that peace accords with involvement from civil society actors and political parties in combination are more likely to see peace prevail. The findings also suggest that inclusion of civil society has a particularly profound effect on the prospects for overall peace in nondemocratic societies.

Keywords
armed conflict, civil society, civil war, inclusion, peace agreement
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-174613 (URN)10.1080/03050629.2012.659139 (DOI)000302788400005 ()
Available from: 2012-05-22 Created: 2012-05-22 Last updated: 2017-12-07Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, D. (2012). Inclusive Peace Deals: A Path to Durable Peace in Africa?. In: Thomas Ohlson (Ed.), From Intra-State War to Durable Peace: Conflict and its Resolution in Africa after the Cold War. Dordrecht: Republic of Letters Publishing
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Inclusive Peace Deals: A Path to Durable Peace in Africa?
2012 (English)In: From Intra-State War to Durable Peace: Conflict and its Resolution in Africa after the Cold War / [ed] Thomas Ohlson, Dordrecht: Republic of Letters Publishing, 2012Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Dordrecht: Republic of Letters Publishing, 2012
Series
International Relations Studies Series ; 12
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-141312 (URN)9789089790460 (ISBN)
Available from: 2011-01-11 Created: 2011-01-11 Last updated: 2013-01-21Bibliographically approved
Projects
Conflicts, Connections, Complexities: Towards a Multi-layered Understanding of Civil War [2015-01235]; Uppsala University; Publications
Fjelde, H. & Nilsson, D. (2018). The Rise of Rebel Contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars. Journal of Peace Research, 55(5), 551-565
ViEWS: a political Violence Early Warning System; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Hultman, L., Nygård, H. M. & Hegre, H. (2019). Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations. Journal of Politics, 81(1), 215-232Hegre, H., Allansson, M., Basedau, M., Colaresi, M., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., . . . Vestby, J. (2019). ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), 155-174
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-0205-2843

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