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Eschmann, N. & Nilsson, D. (2023). Better together?: Civil society coordination during peace negotiations. Cooperation and Conflict, 58(1), 42-60
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Better together?: Civil society coordination during peace negotiations
2023 (English)In: Cooperation and Conflict, ISSN 0010-8367, E-ISSN 1460-3691, Vol. 58, no 1, p. 42-60Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Extensive research has been conducted in the field of peacebuilding concerning the role of civil society in peace negotiations. However, although research has stressed the importance of coordination among civil society groups, we have limited knowledge concerning the impact civil society coordination can have on the content of a peace agreement. This article addresses this gap by examining how the extent of coordination among civil society groups during peace negotiations influences the reflectiveness of a peace agreement in regard to civil society viewpoints. We argue that a high extent of coordination, where civil society actors coordinate tasks and spearhead viewpoints together, can help facilitate peace agreements that are more reflective of civil society group views. Based on a comparative analysis of Guatemala and El Salvador, the findings show that whereas coordination between different civil society groups was quite extensive in both peace processes, civil society viewpoints were inscribed into the peace agreement to a larger extent in the Guatemalan case. We identify two factors that contribute in shaping how coordination influences the content of peace accords: symmetrical transfer of information, and openness from the negotiation parties to consider suggestions from civil society.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2023
Keywords
civil society, civil war, coordination, peace agreement, peace negotiation
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-472644 (URN)10.1177/00108367221077638 (DOI)000769946700001 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2014-3847
Available from: 2022-04-13 Created: 2022-04-13 Last updated: 2023-07-11Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, D., Svensson, I. & Sandyarani, U. (2023). Civil society protests and inclusive peace talks. Stockholm: Folke Bernadotte Academy
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Civil society protests and inclusive peace talks
2023 (English)Other, Policy document (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Abstract [en]

What are the drivers of inclusion in peace negotiations? How can meaningful participation in peace processes be ensured? This research brief shows that civil society engagement, in the form of non-violent protests, demonstrations, or other forms of street action can help shape the conditions for inclusive peace talks in civil wars. We also present trends and patterns based on data on civil society engagement across civil wars in Africa, the Americas, and the Middle East. We propose three recommendations directed at international peacebuilding actors who strive to promote inclusive peace processes.

This brief is part of a research brief series generated by a joint initiative by the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA) and the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD). The aim of the series is to contribute to policy development by bringing cutting-edge research on key issues within mediation to the attention of policy makers and practitioners. The topics to be explored in the series were selected during joint discussions within the FBA initiative “Improving Mediation Effectiveness” throughout 2021-2023. The Initiative brought together policymakers, practitioners, and researchers within the mediation field to discuss challenges and opportunities for greater effectiveness in mediation. The editorial committee has consisted of Dr. Niklas Hultin, Agnes Cronholm, Dr. Johanna Malm and Maja Jakobsson from FBA, and Andrea Prah from ACCORD. We would like to thank the members of the Mediation Support Network for comments. The views and opinions expressed in the brief series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the collaborating partners.

Place, publisher, year, pages
Stockholm: Folke Bernadotte Academy, 2023. p. 8
Series
Joint brief series: The performance of peacekeeping
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-517181 (URN)10.61880/NNDB6777 (DOI)
Available from: 2023-12-05 Created: 2023-12-05 Last updated: 2023-12-05Bibliographically approved
Brosché, J., Nilsson, D. & Sundberg, R. (2023). Conceptualizing Civil War Complexity. Security Studies, 32(1), 137-165
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Conceptualizing Civil War Complexity
2023 (English)In: Security Studies, ISSN 0963-6412, E-ISSN 1556-1852, Vol. 32, no 1, p. 137-165Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Civil wars that appear to observers to be the most complex—even using a colloquial understanding of the concept—are also those that seem to register the most intense fighting, the most prolonged spells of war, and the most resistance to durable conflict resolution. But what does it really mean for a civil war to be complex? We currently lack a concept of “civil war complexity” that can help us better understand the most important variations in civil wars across time and space. To address this gap we develop a conceptualization of “civil war complexity” consisting of three dimensions—“actor complexity,” “behavior complexity,” and “issue complexity”—and demonstrate how they manifest empirically. We also highlight this conceptualization’s utility—and the danger of overlooking it—through the case of Darfur. This conceptualization paves the way for a new research agenda that explores how civil wars differ in terms of their complexity, the causes and consequences of civil war complexity, and how to refine conflict resolution techniques and strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis Group, 2023
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-500175 (URN)10.1080/09636412.2023.2178964 (DOI)000942200400001 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2015-01235Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, 2018-0018Swedish Research Council Formas, 2015-01235Forte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, 2015-01235
Available from: 2023-04-12 Created: 2023-04-12 Last updated: 2024-01-26Bibliographically approved
Nilsson, D. & Kovacs, M. S. (2023). Dealing with Divergence: Intra-party Dynamics and Spoiler Management in Civil Wars. Journal of Global Security Studies, 8(2), Article ID ogad003.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Dealing with Divergence: Intra-party Dynamics and Spoiler Management in Civil Wars
2023 (English)In: Journal of Global Security Studies, ISSN 2057-3170, E-ISSN 2057-3189, Vol. 8, no 2, article id ogad003Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Civil war peace processes are frequently accompanied by spoiler behavior relating to intra-party divergence, such as leadership struggles or breakaway groups, which risk undermining the implementation of a peace accord. However, previous literature has not sufficiently explored how third-party actors can address spoiler behavior linked to such intra-party aspects. This study addresses this gap by providing an empirical analysis of a few illustrative cases of spoiler behavior by armed actors in two peace processes in West Africa—Sierra Leone after the 1999 Lomé peace accords and Liberia after the 2003 Accra peace agreement. We find that in contexts where there is a vertical divergence between the leader and the rest of the group, divisive strategies—aimed to divide and rule or marginalize—are effective. In contrast, in situations of horizontal divergence between different factions that are more equal in power, integrative strategies—aimed at unifying the ranks or reconciling a divided leadership—are more appropriate. This study enhances our understanding of how third-party strategies can be devised to manage intra-party divisions that otherwise may threaten a transition from war to peace.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2023
Keywords
spoilers, intra-party, civil war, Liberia, Sierra Leone, third-party management
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-500114 (URN)10.1093/jogss/ogad003 (DOI)000950298900001 ()
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, 2007-235Swedish Research Council, 2015-01235
Available from: 2023-04-12 Created: 2023-04-12 Last updated: 2023-05-16Bibliographically approved
Martínez Lorenzo, L. & Nilsson, D. (2023). Paths to Inclusion: Civil Society Involvement during the Peace Process in Algeria. In: Ibrahim Freihat & Isak Svensson (Ed.), Mediation in the Arab World: (pp. 357-381). Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Paths to Inclusion: Civil Society Involvement during the Peace Process in Algeria
2023 (English)In: Mediation in the Arab World / [ed] Ibrahim Freihat & Isak Svensson, Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 2023, p. 357-381Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 2023
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-517182 (URN)
Available from: 2023-12-05 Created: 2023-12-05 Last updated: 2024-01-03
Nilsson, D. & Svensson, I. (2023). Pushing the doors open: Nonviolent action and inclusion in peace negotiations. Journal of Peace Research, 60(1), 58-72
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Pushing the doors open: Nonviolent action and inclusion in peace negotiations
2023 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 60, no 1, p. 58-72Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Whereas previous research shows that peace agreements which include a broad segment of society are more likely to lead to sustainable peace, little effort has gone into explaining inclusion itself. We address this gap in the literature by providing the first large-N study to examine the causes of inclusive peace negotiations across civil wars. We argue that civil society actors can gain leverage through mobilization of civilian protest, or build trust through dialogue efforts, thereby enhancing the chances of inclusion of non-warring actors at the negotiation table. The argument is examined by analysing unique and new monthly data on peacemaking efforts in all intrastate armed conflicts in Africa and the Americas, 1989–2018, including measures beyond mere nominal participation, such as whether civil society actors or political parties had substantive roles as either mediators or full participants at the peace talks. Our findings show that protests by civil society actors increase the likelihood that non-warring actors will have a seat at the negotiation table, whereas we find no such effect concerning dialogue efforts. The article contributes by providing new insights into how nonviolent action can shape peace processes by opening the doors to negotiations and is thus part of an emerging research agenda that seeks to bring together the fields of civil resistance and inclusive peace processes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2023
Keywords
armed conflict, civil society, inclusion, nonviolent action, peace negotiation
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-497239 (URN)10.1177/00223433221141468 (DOI)000929135400001 ()
Funder
Stiftelsen Folke Bernadottes minnesfond, 17-00297Swedish Research Council, 03847Swedish Research Council, 03247Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, 2013.0025
Available from: 2023-02-24 Created: 2023-02-24 Last updated: 2023-05-10Bibliographically approved
Svensson, I. & Nilsson, D. (2022). Capitalizing on Cleavages: Transnational Jihadist Conflicts, Local Fault Lines and Cumulative Extremism. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 1-19
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Capitalizing on Cleavages: Transnational Jihadist Conflicts, Local Fault Lines and Cumulative Extremism
2022 (English)In: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, ISSN 1057-610X, E-ISSN 1521-0731, p. 1-19Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Trans-national jihadist groups have established themselves across many contexts. However, we have limited knowledge about the larger picture of how such groups tap into various inter-religious, sectarian, or ethnic divisions. To address this research gap, we explore: How do trans-national jihadist groups mobilize on the basis of different forms of identity cleavages? Our empirical analysis focuses on all trans-national jihadist groups who have challenged governments in civil wars. We find that mobilization along ethnic divisions is the most common cleavage, and is increasing most over time. We also find that sectarian mobilization is rare, but associated with significant escalation of violence.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis Group, 2022
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-473577 (URN)10.1080/1057610X.2022.2058350 (DOI)000783411100001 ()
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 870769Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, NHS 14-1701:1
Available from: 2022-04-28 Created: 2022-04-28 Last updated: 2022-10-18
Hultman, L., Leis, M. & Nilsson, D. (2022). Employing Local Peacekeeping Data to Forecast Changes in Violence. International Interactions, 48(4), 823-840
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Employing Local Peacekeeping Data to Forecast Changes in Violence
2022 (English)In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 48, no 4, p. 823-840Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

One way of improving forecasts is through better data. We explore how much we can improve predictions of conflict violence by introducing data reflecting third-party efforts to manage violence. By leveraging new sub-national data on all UN peacekeeping deployments in Africa, 1994–2020, from the Geocoded Peacekeeping (Geo-PKO) dataset, we predict changes in violence at the local level. The advantage of data on peacekeeping deployments is that these vary over time and space, as opposed to many structural variables commonly used. We present two peacekeeping models that contain several local peacekeeping features, each with a separate set of additional variables that form the respective benchmark. The mean errors of our predictions only improve marginally. However, comparing observed and predicted changes in violence, the peacekeeping features improve our ability to identify the correct sign of the change. These results are particularly strong when we limit the sample to countries that have seen peacekeeping deployments. For an ambitious forecasting project, like ViEWS, it may thus be highly relevant to incorporate fine-grained and frequently updated data on peacekeeping troops.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis Group, 2022
Keywords
Civil war, forecasting, peacekeeping, sub-national
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-472645 (URN)10.1080/03050629.2022.2055010 (DOI)000779255400001 ()2-s2.0-85129151499 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 694640Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2018.0455
Available from: 2022-04-13 Created: 2022-04-13 Last updated: 2022-12-07Bibliographically approved
Elfversson, E. & Nilsson, D. (2022). The pursuit of inclusion: Conditions for civil society inclusion in peace processes in communal conflicts in Kenya. Cooperation and Conflict, 57(2), 171-190
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The pursuit of inclusion: Conditions for civil society inclusion in peace processes in communal conflicts in Kenya
2022 (English)In: Cooperation and Conflict, ISSN 0010-8367, E-ISSN 1460-3691, Vol. 57, no 2, p. 171-190Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Why are some peace processes in communal conflicts more inclusive of civil society actors than others? Inclusion of civil society actors, such as churches and religious leaders, women’s organizations, or youth groups, is seen as important for normative reasons, and studies also suggest that civil society inclusion can improve the prospects for durable peace. Yet, we have a very limited understanding of why we observe inclusion in some communal conflicts but not others. We address this gap by theorizing about various forms of civil society inclusion in local peace processes, and examining to what extent involvement by different types of third-party actors—governments, inter-governmental organizations (IGOs), and non-governmental organizations (NGOs)—may contribute to inclusion. Empirically, we draw on a combination of cross-case and in-depth data covering peace negotiations in communal conflicts in Kenya. The findings show that civil society was less frequently included as facilitators when the government was involved as a third party, while inclusion in the form of direct participation of civil society in negotiations, or via involvement in the implementation phase, was equally common across different types of third-party actors. Our study thus provides important new insights regarding how inclusion plays out in communal conflicts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2022
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-455974 (URN)10.1177/00108367211047136 (DOI)000708602400001 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2014-03847
Available from: 2021-10-14 Created: 2021-10-14 Last updated: 2023-08-23Bibliographically approved
Höglund, K. & Nilsson, D. (2022). Violence and Peace Processes (3rded.). In: Roger Mac Ginty & Anthony Wanis-St. John (Ed.), Contemporary Peacemaking: Peace Processes, Peacebuilding and Conflict (pp. 289-306). Palgrave Macmillan
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Violence and Peace Processes
2022 (English)In: Contemporary Peacemaking: Peace Processes, Peacebuilding and Conflict / [ed] Roger Mac Ginty & Anthony Wanis-St. John, Palgrave Macmillan, 2022, 3rd, p. 289-306Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Car bombings, kidnappings, political assassinations, conventional battles and street protests. These are all types of violence that can occur conjointly with efforts to negotiate and implement peace. This chapter addresses the role of violence as an influence on peace negotiations. We look at its main characteristics in terms of the actors involved, targets and motives, as well as chart the main modes by which domestic and international actors seek to prevent and stop violence that threaten to undermine peace efforts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Palgrave Macmillan, 2022 Edition: 3rd
Keywords
peace, violence, negotiations, conflict resolution
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-465647 (URN)978-3-030-82961-2 (ISBN)978-3-030-82962-9 (ISBN)
Available from: 2022-01-18 Created: 2022-01-18 Last updated: 2023-08-23Bibliographically approved
Projects
​From Intra-State War to Durable Peace. Conflict and Conflict Resolution in Africa, 1989-2004; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Ohlson, T. (2008). Understanding causes of war and peace. European Journal of International Relations, 14(1), 133-160Ohlson, T. & Söderberg, M. (2005). From Intra-State War to Democratic Peace in Africa. In: Africa: A Future Beyond the Crises and Conflicts: . Nordic Africa Institute: UppsalaSöderberg, M. & Ohlson, T. (2003). Democratisation and Armed Conflicts in Weak States. Stockholm: SidaOhlson, T. & Söderberg Kovacs, M. (2002). From Intra-State War to Democratic Peace in Weak States. Universitetsförlaget, Uppsala
​Power Sharing after Civil War; Uppsala University; Publications
Jarstad, A. K. & Nilsson, D. (2008). From words to deeds: the implementation of power-sharing pacts in peace accords. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 25(3), 206-223Jarstad, A. & Sundberg, R. (2006). Peace by Pact: The Theory and Data of Peace Agreement Implementation. In: Paper prepared for the 2006 Conference on Globalization and Peacebuilding, arranged by the Swedish Network of Peace, Conflict and Development Research, Uppsala, 6–8 November 2006: . Jarstad, A. & Nilsson, D. (2006). Political Pacts- No Promise of Peace?: no promise of peace. In: Paper prepared for the 2006 Conference on Globalization and Peacebuilding, arranged by the Swedish Network of Peace, Conflict and Development Research, Uppsala, 6–8 November 2006, and for the 40th Annual Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Columbus, Ohio, 10–12 November 2006.: . Jarstad, A. (2006). The logic of power sharing after civil war. In: Paper prepared for the workshop on Power-sharing and Democratic Governance in Divided Society, Center for the Study of Civil War, PRIO, Oslo, Norway, 21–22 August 2006.: .
Peace by Piece - Multiple Actors in Peace Processes in Civil Wars; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Nilsson, D. (2012). Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace. International Interactions, 38(2), 243-266Nilsson, D. (2010). Turning Weakness into Strength: Military Capabilities, Multiple Rebel Groups and Negotiated Settlements. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27(3), 253-271Nilsson, D. (2009). Crafting a Secure Peace: Evaluating Liberia’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement 2003. Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala UniversityNilsson, D. (2008). Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements. Journal of Peace Research, 45(4), 479-495Nilsson, D. (2008). Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements. World Bank
Turning Spoilers into Statesmen: Third Party Strategies for Sustainable Peace in West Africa; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Nilsson, D. & Kovacs Söderberg, M. (2013). Different Paths of Reconstruction: Military Reform in Post-War Sierra Leone and Liberia. International Peacekeeping, 20(1), 2-16Nilsson, D. & Söderberg Kovacs, M. (2011). Revisiting an Elusive Concept: A Review of the Debate on Spoilers in Peace Processes. International Studies Review, 13(4), 606-626Söderberg Kovacs, M. (2010). Bringing in the Good, the Bad and the Ugly into the Peace Fold: The Transformation of the Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces after the Lomé Peace Agreement. In: Roy Licklider (Ed.), Authors’ conference at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, USA: . Paper presented at New Armies from Old: Merging Competing Military Forces after Civil Wars. Nilsson, D. (2009). Crafting a Secure Peace: Evaluating Liberia’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement 2003. Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala UniversitySöderberg Kovacs, M. & Nilsson, D. (2005). Breaking the Cycle of Violence?: Promises and Pitfalls of the Liberian Peace Process. Civil Wars, 7(4), 19Nilsson, D. (2003). Liberia - The Eye of the Storm: A Review of the Literature on Internally Displaced, Refugees and Returnees. Uppsala, Nordiska afrikainstitutetNilsson, D. & Söderberg, M. (2003). På väg mot fred i Liberia?. Stockholm: Utrikespolitiska Institutet (11)
Programme on Governance, Conflict and Peacebuilding; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Nilsson, D. (2012). Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace. International Interactions, 38(2), 243-266Ohlson, T. (Ed.). (2012). From Intra-State War to Durable Peace: Conflict and Its Resolution in Africa after the Cold War. Dordrecht: Republic of Letters PublishingNilsson, D. & Söderberg Kovacs, M. (2011). Revisiting an Elusive Concept: A Review of the Debate on Spoilers in Peace Processes. International Studies Review, 13(4), 606-626Lindgren, M. (2011). Sexual Violence Beyond Conflict Termination: Impunity for Past Violations as a Recipe for New Ones?. Durban, South Africa: ACCORD (15)Höglund, K. & Jarstad, A. K. (2011). Toward Electoral Security: Experiences from KwaZulu-Natal. Africa Spectrum, 46(1), 33-59Themnér, A. (2011). Violence in Post-Conflict Societies: Remarginalization, Remobilizers and Relationships. Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon: RoutledgeNilsson, D. (2010). Agreements and Sustainability. In: Nigel J. Young (Ed.), The Oxford International Encyclopedia of Peace: Volume I (pp. 30-32). New York: Oxford University PressHöglund, K. & Söderberg Kovacs, M. (2010). Beyond the Absence of War: The Diversity of Peace in Post-Settlement Societies. Review of International Studies, 36(2), 367-390Höglund, K. & Jarstad, A. K. (2010). Strategies to Prevent and Manage Electoral Violence: Considerations for Policy. Durban: ACCORDNilsson, D. (2010). Turning Weakness into Strength: Military Capabilities, Multiple Rebel Groups and Negotiated Settlements. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27(3), 253-271
Partnership Project; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict ResearchFrom Wars of the Weak to Strong Peace [P2008-0732:1-E]; Uppsala UniversityFrom Wars of the Weak to Strong Peace. On the Conditions for High-Quality Peace in Sub-Saharan Africa [P2008-0732:1-E_RJ]; Uppsala UniversityWho, Where and Why: Understanding Microfoundations of Civil War [2009-01833]; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Fjelde, H. & Østby, G. (2014). Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2008. International Interactions, 40(5), 737-762Fjelde, H. & Hultman, L. (2014). Weakening the Enemy: A Disaggregated Study of Violence against Civilians in Africa. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 58(7), 1230-1257Hultman, L. (2012). Attacks on Civilians in Civil War: Targeting the Achilles Heel of Democratic Governments. International Interactions, 38(2), 164-181Hultman, L. (2012). Military Offensives in Afghanistan: A Double-Edged Sword. International Area Studies Review, 15(3), 230-248Fjelde, H. & Nilsson, D. (2012). Rebels against Rebels: Explaining Violence between Rebel Groups. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 56(4), 604-628
Who, Where and Why: Understanding Microfoundations of Civil War [2009-01833_VR]; Uppsala UniversityAn Impediment or Inducement to Peace? The Inclusion of Civil Society Actors in the Peace Processes in Sierra Leone and Liberia [2014-03847_VR]; Uppsala UniversityConflicts, Connections, Complexities: Towards a Multi-layered Understanding of Civil War [2015-01235]; Uppsala University; Publications
Fjelde, H. & Nilsson, D. (2018). The Rise of Rebel Contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars. Journal of Peace Research, 55(5), 551-565
Conflicts, Connections, Complexities: Towards a Multi-layered Understanding of Civil War [2015-01235_VR]; Uppsala UniversityResolving Jihadists Conflicts? Religion, Civil War, and Prospects for Peace [NHS14-1701:1_RJ]; Uppsala UniversityViEWS: a political Violence Early Warning System; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Hegre, H., Akbari, F., Croicu, M., Dale, J., Gåsste, T., Jansen, R., . . . Vesco, P. (2022). Forecasting fatalities. Hegre, H., Lindqvist-McGowan, A., Dale, J., Croicu, M., Randahl, D. & Vesco, P. (2022). Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025. Blocher, J., Destrijcker, L., Fischer, B., Gleixner, S., Gornott, C., Hegre, H., . . . Zvolsky, A. (2022). Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS). United Nations Office of the Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel (OSCDS); United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)Hegre, H., Nygård, H. M. & Landsverk, P. (2021). Can We Predict Armed Conflict?: How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality. International Studies Quarterly, 65(3), 660-668Vesco, P., Kovacic, M., Mistry, M. & Croicu, M. (2021). Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production. Journal of Peace Research, 58(1), 98-113Vesco, P. & Buhaug, H. (2020). Climate and Conflict. In: Hampson, Fen Osler; Azerdem, Alpaslan & Kent, Jonathan (Ed.), Routledge handbook of peace, security and development: (pp. 105-120). Abingdon; New York: RoutledgeHegre, H., Croicu, M., Eck, K. & Högbladh, S. (2020). Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset. Research & Politics, 7(3), 1-8Hegre, H., Hultman, L. & Nygård, H. M. (2019). Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations. Journal of Politics, 81(1), 215-232Hegre, H., Allansson, M., Basedau, M., Colaresi, M., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., . . . Vestby, J. (2019). ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), 155-174
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