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Hultman, Lisa, ProfessorORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-6410-1551
Publications (10 of 40) Show all publications
Hatz, S. & Hultman, L. (2023). Particularized Preferences for Civilian Protection?: A Survey Experiment. Foreign Policy Analysis, 20(1), Article ID orad031.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Particularized Preferences for Civilian Protection?: A Survey Experiment
2023 (English)In: Foreign Policy Analysis, ISSN 1743-8586, E-ISSN 1743-8594, Vol. 20, no 1, article id orad031Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Even as the protection of civilians becomes a widely held norm, there is substantial variation in public support for humanitarian policy efforts. We use a survey experiment in Sweden to gain insights into this puzzle. Our survey confirms that citizens generally support military, but particularly non-military, means of civilian protection. Yet, we also find that support is partly particularized. Specifying that civilians may have ties to extremist groups (as victims or supporters) reduces support for proposals to provide humanitarian aid, contribute to UN observer missions and accept refugees. We trace this reduced support to lower moral obligation and higher threat perceptions. In contrast to expectations, respondents do not prioritize the protection of co-nationals, or women and children. Manipulation checks suggest the explanation that perceptions of who constitutes a civilian are subjective. Our findings provide insights into the domestic political determinants of atrocity prevention abroad.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2023
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-518380 (URN)10.1093/fpa/orad031 (DOI)001109460700001 ()
Funder
Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2014.0162Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2018.0455Swedish Research Council, 2018–00835
Available from: 2023-12-18 Created: 2023-12-18 Last updated: 2023-12-19Bibliographically approved
Duursma, A., Bara, C., Wilén, N., Hellmüller, S., Karlsrud, J., Oksamytna, K., . . . Wenger, A. (2023). UN Peacekeeping at 75: Achievements, Challenges, and Prospects. International Peacekeeping, 30(4), 415-476
Open this publication in new window or tab >>UN Peacekeeping at 75: Achievements, Challenges, and Prospects
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2023 (English)In: International Peacekeeping, ISSN 1353-3312, E-ISSN 1743-906X, Vol. 30, no 4, p. 415-476Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This year marks the 75th anniversary of what the UN itself understands to be its first peacekeeping operation. It is therefore an appropriate time to reflect on the track record of UN peacekeeping in its efforts to try to maintain and realize peace and security. Moreover, this milestone invites us to ponder what lies ahead in the realm of peacekeeping. For this reason, this forum article brings together both academics and UN officials to assess the achievements and challenges of UN peacekeeping over the past 75 years. Through a dialogue among peacekeeping scholars and practitioners, we hope to identify current trends and developments in UN peacekeeping, as well as explore priorities for the future to improve the effectiveness of peacekeeping operations in terms of achieving their mandate objectives, such as maintaining peace, protecting civilians, promoting human rights, and facilitating reconciliation. This forum article is structured into six thematic sections, each shedding light on various aspects of UN peacekeeping: (1) foundational principles of UN peacekeeping - namely, consent, impartiality, and the (non-)use of force; (2) protection of civilians; (3) the primacy of politics; (4) early warning; (5) cooperation with regional organizations; and (6) the changing geopolitical landscape in which UN peacekeeping operates.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2023
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-514023 (URN)10.1080/13533312.2023.2263178 (DOI)001084188100001 ()
Available from: 2023-10-13 Created: 2023-10-13 Last updated: 2023-11-17Bibliographically approved
Hultman, L., Leis, M. & Nilsson, D. (2022). Employing Local Peacekeeping Data to Forecast Changes in Violence. International Interactions, 48(4), 823-840
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Employing Local Peacekeeping Data to Forecast Changes in Violence
2022 (English)In: International Interactions, ISSN 0305-0629, E-ISSN 1547-7444, Vol. 48, no 4, p. 823-840Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

One way of improving forecasts is through better data. We explore how much we can improve predictions of conflict violence by introducing data reflecting third-party efforts to manage violence. By leveraging new sub-national data on all UN peacekeeping deployments in Africa, 1994–2020, from the Geocoded Peacekeeping (Geo-PKO) dataset, we predict changes in violence at the local level. The advantage of data on peacekeeping deployments is that these vary over time and space, as opposed to many structural variables commonly used. We present two peacekeeping models that contain several local peacekeeping features, each with a separate set of additional variables that form the respective benchmark. The mean errors of our predictions only improve marginally. However, comparing observed and predicted changes in violence, the peacekeeping features improve our ability to identify the correct sign of the change. These results are particularly strong when we limit the sample to countries that have seen peacekeeping deployments. For an ambitious forecasting project, like ViEWS, it may thus be highly relevant to incorporate fine-grained and frequently updated data on peacekeeping troops.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis Group, 2022
Keywords
Civil war, forecasting, peacekeeping, sub-national
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-472645 (URN)10.1080/03050629.2022.2055010 (DOI)000779255400001 ()2-s2.0-85129151499 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 694640Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2018.0455
Available from: 2022-04-13 Created: 2022-04-13 Last updated: 2022-12-07Bibliographically approved
Bara, C. & Hultman, L. (2020). Just Different Hats? Comparing UN and Non-UN Peacekeeping. International Peacekeeping, 27(3), 341-368
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Just Different Hats? Comparing UN and Non-UN Peacekeeping
2020 (English)In: International Peacekeeping, ISSN 1353-3312, E-ISSN 1743-906X, Vol. 27, no 3, p. 341-368Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the past two decades, regional organizations and coalitions of states have deployed more peace operations than the UN. Yet most quantitative studies of peacekeeping effectiveness focus on UN peacekeeping exclusively, a decision owed to data availability more than to theories about the differential impact of UN and non-UN missions. As a result, we know little about the effectiveness of non-UN peacekeeping in mitigating violence. In this paper, we introduce and analyse monthly data on the approximate number of troops, police, and observers in both UN and non-UN peacekeeping operations between 1993 and 2016. Using these data, we show that when accounting for mission size and composition, UN and regional peacekeeping operations are equally effective in mitigating violence against civilians by governments, but only UN troops and police curb civilian targeting by non-state actors. We offer some theoretical reflections on these findings, but the main contribution of the article is the novel dataset on non-UN peacekeeping strength and personnel composition to overcome the near-exclusive focus on UN missions in the scholarship on peacekeeping effectiveness.

National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-430690 (URN)10.1080/13533312.2020.1737023 (DOI)000524042900001 ()
Funder
Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, KAW2014.0162
Available from: 2021-01-12 Created: 2021-01-12 Last updated: 2021-01-13Bibliographically approved
Cil, D., Fjelde, H., Hultman, L. & Nilsson, D. (2020). Mapping Blue Helmets: Introducing the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 57(2), 360-370
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mapping Blue Helmets: Introducing the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) dataset
2020 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 57, no 2, p. 360-370Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this article, we introduce the Geocoded Peacekeeping Operations (Geo-PKO) dataset, which presents new data on subnational peacekeeping deployment for all UN missions to Africa, 1994–2014. The Geo-PKO dataset is the most comprehensive dataset of its kind and enables scholars to address new questions about peacekeeping operations and their effects by exploring variations in peacekeeping at the subnational level. The dataset offers information on several key features of peacekeeping deployment at the local level, such as data on the size of deployments and how these vary over time, as well as information on the location of mission headquarters, the type of peacekeepers deployed, and which troop-contributing countries deploy to each location. This article describes the data collection process and illustrates some of the many utilities of this dataset for the scholarly community. For example, we show that peacekeeping troops are able to reduce battle-related violence in areas with high road density, suggesting that peacekeepers’ ability to project their power is stronger when they can increase their reach and more easily patrol larger territories. Hence, our data can fruitfully be combined with information such as socio-economic, geographical or demographic characteristics, to further explore how peacekeeping operations can contribute to peace and security in the areas where they operate. By providing fine-grained data on the location of peacekeepers across time and space, the Geo-PKO dataset should help facilitate important inquires that can push the research agenda on peacekeeping forward.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SAGE Publications, 2020
Keywords
civil conflict, peacekeeping, subnational data
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-400470 (URN)10.1177/0022343319871978 (DOI)000491752200001 ()
Funder
Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2014.0162Swedish Research Council, 2015-01235
Available from: 2019-12-20 Created: 2019-12-20 Last updated: 2023-03-29Bibliographically approved
Hultman, L. & Tidblad-Lundholm, K. (2020). What Do We Really Know about Local Peacekeeping Effects?: Reply to “Violence reduction or relocation? Effects of United Nations troops presence on local levels of violence” by Laura Peitz and Gregor Reisch [Letter to the editor]. Zeitschrift für Friedens- und Konfliktforschung (9), 211-217
Open this publication in new window or tab >>What Do We Really Know about Local Peacekeeping Effects?: Reply to “Violence reduction or relocation? Effects of United Nations troops presence on local levels of violence” by Laura Peitz and Gregor Reisch
2020 (English)In: Zeitschrift für Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, ISSN 2524-6976, no 9, p. 211-217Article in journal, Letter (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The article “Violence reduction or relocation? Effects of United Nations troops presence on local levels of violence” by Laura Peitz and Gregor Reisch is one of several recent articles that explore the local effects of peacekeeping deployments. We provide an overview of accumulated knowledge and conflicting findings, and identify a few remaining gaps in the literature. The finding that more peacekeepers are better at reducing violence has been replicated by several studies, although a few studies have identified conditional effects. Taken together, studies find that peacekeepers can reduce both violence between armed actors and violence against civilians. While Peitz and Reisch do not make a distinction between different perpetrators, previous work suggest that peacekeepers are better at reducing violence against civilians by non-state actors. Peitz and Reisch are thus far one of the few studies that explores the impact of the type of peacekeepers – although the findings are ambiguous. Lastly, there is a tension in the literature between Peitz and Reisch, who claim that peacekeepers diffuse violence to nearby location, and other studies that find no such relocation effect, or even the opposite. Future work should continue to explore the local effects of peacekeeping, directing attention to questions about types of peacekeepers, local conditions as enabling factors, the role of military capabilities (as opposed to capacity), and actions taken on the ground.

Keywords
UN peacekeeping, Local peacekeeping effects, violence against civilians, conflict violence, spatial analysis
National Category
Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-400393 (URN)10.1007/s42597-019-00020-1 (DOI)
Available from: 2019-12-20 Created: 2019-12-20 Last updated: 2023-10-26Bibliographically approved
Hegre, H., Hultman, L. & Nygård, H. M. (2019). Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations. Journal of Politics, 81(1), 215-232
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations
2019 (English)In: Journal of Politics, ISSN 0022-3816, E-ISSN 1468-2508, Vol. 81, no 1, p. 215-232Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Several studies show a beneficial effect of peacekeeping operations (PKOs). However, by looking at individual effect pathways (intensity, duration, recurrence, diffusion) in isolation, they underestimate the peacekeeping impact of PKOs. We propose a novel method of evaluating the combined impact across all pathways based on a statistical model of the efficacy of UN PKOs in preventing the onset, escalation, continuation, and recurrence of internal armed conflict. We run a set of simulations based on the statistical estimates to assess the impact of alternative UN policies for the 2001-13 period. If the UN had invested US$200 billion in PKOs with strong mandates, major armed conflict would have been reduced by up to two-thirds relative to a scenario without PKOs and 150,000 lives would have been saved over the 13-year period compared to a no-PKO scenario. UN peacekeeping is clearly a cost-effective way of increasing global security.

National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354690 (URN)10.1086/700203 (DOI)000455040500020 ()
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 694640Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2014.0162
Available from: 2018-06-21 Created: 2018-06-21 Last updated: 2020-08-17Bibliographically approved
Hultman, L. (2019). Mediation and the prevention of violence against civilians. In: Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Kyle Beardsley, David Quinn (Ed.), Research Handbook on Mediating International Crises: (pp. 296-309). Edward Elgar Publishing
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mediation and the prevention of violence against civilians
2019 (English)In: Research Handbook on Mediating International Crises / [ed] Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Kyle Beardsley, David Quinn, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2019, p. 296-309Chapter in book (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Edward Elgar Publishing, 2019
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-400469 (URN)978 1 78811 069 3 (ISBN)
Available from: 2019-12-20 Created: 2019-12-20 Last updated: 2020-03-31Bibliographically approved
Hultman, L., Kathman, J. & Shannon, M. (2019). Peacekeeping in the Midst of War. Oxford: Oxford University Press
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Peacekeeping in the Midst of War
2019 (English)Book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Civil wars have caused tremendous human suffering in the last century, and the United Nations is often asked to send peacekeepers to stop ongoing violence. Yet despite being the most visible tool of international intervention, policymakers and scholars have little systematic knowledge about how well peacekeeping works. Peacekeeping in the Midst of War offers the most comprehensive analyses of peacekeeping on civil war violence to date. With unique data on different types of violence in civil wars around the world, Peacekeeping in the Midst of War offers a rigorous understanding of UN intervention by analysing both wars with and without UN peacekeeping efforts. It also directly measures the strength of UN missions in personnel capacity and constitution. Using large-n quantitative analyses, the book finds that UN peacekeeping missions with appropriately constituted force capacities mitigate violence in civil wars. The authors conclude by analyzing the broader context of UN intervention effectiveness, and conclude that peacekeeping is a more generally effective way to reduce the human suffering associated with civil war.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019. p. 256
Keywords
UN peacekeeping effectiveness, peacekeeping capacity, civil war, battle deaths, conflict intensity, one-sided violence, civilians protection
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-400392 (URN)10.1093/oso/9780198845577.001.0001 (DOI)9780198845577 (ISBN)
Funder
Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, P12-0787Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2014.0162
Available from: 2019-12-20 Created: 2019-12-20 Last updated: 2020-08-17Bibliographically approved
Fjelde, H., Hultman, L. & Nilsson, D. (2019). Protection Through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians. International Organization, 73(1), 103-131
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Protection Through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians
2019 (English)In: International Organization, ISSN 0020-8183, E-ISSN 1531-5088, Vol. 73, no 1, p. 103-131Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Are UN peacekeepers effective in protecting civilians from violence? Existing studies examine this issue at the country level, thereby making it difficult to isolate the effect of peacekeepers and to assess the actual mechanism at work. We provide the first comprehensive evaluation of UN peacekeeping success in protecting civilians at the subnational level. We argue that peacekeepers through their sizable local presence can increase the political and military costs for warring actors to engage in civilian targeting. Since peacekeepers' access to civilian populations rests on government consent, peacekeepers will primarily be effective in imposing these costs on rebel groups, but less so for government actors. To test these conjectures we combine new monthly data on the location of peacekeepers with data on the location and timing of civilian killings in Africa. Our findings suggest that local peacekeeping presence enhances the effectiveness of civilian protection against rebel abuse, but that UN peacekeeping struggles to protect civilians from government forces.

National Category
Political Science Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354931 (URN)10.1017/S0020818318000346 (DOI)000455664400004 ()
Funder
The Royal Swedish Academy of Letters, History and Antiquities (KVHAA)Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, P12-0787:1EU, European Research Council, ERC ADG 694640
Note

Author names are listed alphabetically and equal authorship applies.

Available from: 2018-06-25 Created: 2018-06-25 Last updated: 2020-08-14Bibliographically approved
Projects
Who, Where and Why: Understanding Microfoundations of Civil War [2009-01833]; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Fjelde, H. & Østby, G. (2014). Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2008. International Interactions, 40(5), 737-762Fjelde, H. & Hultman, L. (2014). Weakening the Enemy: A Disaggregated Study of Violence against Civilians in Africa. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 58(7), 1230-1257Hultman, L. (2012). Attacks on Civilians in Civil War: Targeting the Achilles Heel of Democratic Governments. International Interactions, 38(2), 164-181Hultman, L. (2012). Military Offensives in Afghanistan: A Double-Edged Sword. International Area Studies Review, 15(3), 230-248Fjelde, H. & Nilsson, D. (2012). Rebels against Rebels: Explaining Violence between Rebel Groups. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 56(4), 604-628
Protection of Civilians: UN Peacekeeping Strategies and Their Effectiveness [P12-0787:1_RJ]; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Fjelde, H., Hultman, L. & Nilsson, D. (2019). Protection Through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians. International Organization, 73(1), 103-131Hultman, L. (2017). Action for Protection: What Peacekeepers Do to Protect Civilians: In "The known knowns and known unknowns of peacekeeping data" (ed G Clayton). International Peacekeeping, 24(1), 28-32Hultman, L., Kathman, J. & Shannon, M. (2014). Beyond Keeping Peace: United Nations Effectiveness in the Midst of Fighting. American Political Science Review, 108(4), 737-753Hultman, L. (2013). UN peace operations and protection of civilians: Cheap talk or norm implementation?. Journal of Peace Research, 50(1), 59-73Hultman, L., Kathman, J. & Shannon, M. (2013). United Nations Peacekeeping and Civilian Protection in Civil War. American Journal of Political Science, 57(4), 875-891
Threatening Ties: Understanding wartime civilian targeting along ethnic lines [2014-01365_VR]; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Fjelde, H., Hultman, L., Sollenberg, M. & Sundberg, R. (2018). Spatial Patterns of Violence against Civilians. In: Backer, David A., Ravi Bhavnani, & Paul K. Huth (Ed.), Peace and Conflict 2017: . New York, NY: RoutledgeFjelde, H., Hultman, L. & Sollenberg, M. (2016). Violence against Civilians in Civil War. In: David A. Backer, Ravi Bhavnani, and Paul K. HUth (Ed.), Peace and Conflict 2016: (pp. 42-49). RoutledgeFjelde, H. & Hultman, L. (2014). Weakening the Enemy: A Disaggregated Study of Violence against Civilians in Africa. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 58(7), 1230-1257
ViEWS: a political Violence Early Warning System; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Hegre, H., Akbari, F., Croicu, M., Dale, J., Gåsste, T., Jansen, R., . . . Vesco, P. (2022). Forecasting fatalities. Hegre, H., Lindqvist-McGowan, A., Dale, J., Croicu, M., Randahl, D. & Vesco, P. (2022). Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025. Blocher, J., Destrijcker, L., Fischer, B., Gleixner, S., Gornott, C., Hegre, H., . . . Zvolsky, A. (2022). Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS). United Nations Office of the Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel (OSCDS); United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)Hegre, H., Nygård, H. M. & Landsverk, P. (2021). Can We Predict Armed Conflict?: How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality. International Studies Quarterly, 65(3), 660-668Vesco, P., Kovacic, M., Mistry, M. & Croicu, M. (2021). Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production. Journal of Peace Research, 58(1), 98-113Vesco, P. & Buhaug, H. (2020). Climate and Conflict. In: Hampson, Fen Osler; Azerdem, Alpaslan & Kent, Jonathan (Ed.), Routledge handbook of peace, security and development: (pp. 105-120). Abingdon; New York: RoutledgeHegre, H., Croicu, M., Eck, K. & Högbladh, S. (2020). Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset. Research & Politics, 7(3), 1-8Hegre, H., Hultman, L. & Nygård, H. M. (2019). Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations. Journal of Politics, 81(1), 215-232Hegre, H., Allansson, M., Basedau, M., Colaresi, M., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., . . . Vestby, J. (2019). ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), 155-174
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ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-6410-1551

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