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Publications (10 of 35) Show all publications
Buhaug, H., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H. & von Uexkull, N. (2020). A conditional model of local income shock and civil conflict. Journal of Politics
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A conditional model of local income shock and civil conflict
2020 (English)In: Journal of Politics, ISSN 0022-3816, E-ISSN 1468-2508Article in journal (Refereed) Accepted
Abstract [en]

Common political economy models point to rationalist motives for engaging in conflict but say little about how income shocks translate into collective violence in some cases but not in others. Grievance models, in contrast, focus on structural origins of shared frustration but offer less insight into when the deprived decide to challenge the status quo. Addressing these lacunae, we develop a theoretical model of civil conflict that predicts income loss to trigger violent mobilization primarily when the shock can be linked to pre-existing collective grievances. The conditional argument is supported by results of a comprehensive global statistical analysis of conflict involvement among ethnic groups. Consistent with theory, we find that this relationship is most powerful among recently downgraded groups, especially in the context of agricultural dependence and low local level of development, whereas political downgrading in the absence of adverse economic changes exerts less influence on ethnic conflict risk.

Keywords
Civil war; grievance; ethnicity; economic shock; opportunity cost
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research; Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-397447 (URN)
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, 2016- 06389Swedish Research Council Formas, 2016- 06389Swedish Research Council, 2016- 06389EU, European Research Council, 648291EU, European Research Council, 694640
Available from: 2019-11-20 Created: 2019-11-20 Last updated: 2019-11-27Bibliographically approved
Brosché, J., Fjelde, H. & Höglund, K. (2019). Electoral violence and the legacy of authoritarian rule in Kenya and Zambia. Journal of Peace Research
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Electoral violence and the legacy of authoritarian rule in Kenya and Zambia
2019 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Why do the first multiparty elections after authoritarian rule turn violent in some countries but not in others? Thisarticle places legacies from the authoritarian past at the core of an explanation of when democratic openings becomeassociated with electoral violence in multi-ethnic states, and complement existing research focused on the immediateconditions surrounding the elections. We argue that authoritarian rule characterized by more exclusionary multiethniccoalitions creates legacies that amplify the risk of violent elections during the shift to multiparty politics.Through competitive and fragmented interethnic relations, exclusionary systems foreclose the forging of cross-ethnicelite coalitions and make hostile narratives a powerful tool for political mobilization. By contrast, regimes with abroad-based ethnic support base cultivate inclusive inter-elite bargaining, enable cross-ethnic coalitions, and reduceincentives for hostile ethnic mobilization, which lower the risk of violent elections. We explore this argument bycomparing founding elections in Zambia (1991), which were largely peaceful, and Kenya (1992), with large-scalestate-instigated electoral violence along ethnic lines. The analysis suggests that the type of authoritarian rule createdpolitical legacies that underpinned political competition and mobilization during the first multiparty elections, andmade violence a more viable electoral strategy in Kenya than in Zambia.

Keywords
authoritarianism, elections, ethnicity, Kenya, violence, Zambia
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-398351 (URN)10.1177/0022343319884983 (DOI)
Available from: 2019-12-05 Created: 2019-12-05 Last updated: 2019-12-05
Fjelde, H., Hultman, L. & Nilsson, D. (2019). Protection through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians. International Organization, 73(1), 103-131
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Protection through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians
2019 (English)In: International Organization, ISSN 0020-8183, E-ISSN 1531-5088, Vol. 73, no 1, p. 103-131Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Are UN peacekeepers effective in protecting civilians from violence? Existing studies examine this issue at the country level, thereby making it difficult to isolate the effect of peacekeepers and to assess the actual mechanism at work. We provide the first comprehensive evaluation of UN peacekeeping success in protecting civilians at the subnational level. We argue that peacekeepers through their sizable local presence can increase the political and military costs for warring actors to engage in civilian targeting. Since peacekeepers’ access to civilian populations rests on government consent, peacekeepers will primarily be effective in imposing these costs on rebel groups, but less so for government actors. To test these conjectures we combine new monthly data on the location of peacekeepers with data on the location and timing of civilian killings in Africa. Our findings suggest that local peacekeeping presence enhances the effectiveness of civilian protection against rebel abuse, but that UN peacekeeping struggles to protect civilians from government forces.

National Category
Political Science Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354931 (URN)10.1017/S0020818318000346 (DOI)000455664400004 ()
Funder
The Royal Swedish Academy of Letters, History and Antiquities (KVHAA)Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, P12-0787:1EU, European Research Council, ERC ADG 694640
Available from: 2018-06-25 Created: 2018-06-25 Last updated: 2019-02-04Bibliographically approved
Davenport, C., Nygård, H. M., Fjelde, H. & Armstrong, D. (2019). The Consequences of Contention: Understanding the Aftereffects of Political Conflict and Violence. Annual review of political science (Palo Alto, Calif. Print), 22, 361-377
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Consequences of Contention: Understanding the Aftereffects of Political Conflict and Violence
2019 (English)In: Annual review of political science (Palo Alto, Calif. Print), ISSN 1094-2939, E-ISSN 1545-1577, Vol. 22, p. 361-377Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

What are the political and economic consequences of contention (i.e., genocide, civil war, state repression/human rights violation, terrorism, and protest)? Despite a significant amount of interest as well as quantitative research, the literature on this subject remains underdeveloped and imbalanced across topic areas. To date, investigations have been focused on particular forms of contention and specific consequences. While this research has led to some important insights, substantial limitations-as well as opportunities for future development-remain. In particular, there is a need for simultaneously investigating a wider range of consequences (beyond democracy and economic development), a wider range of contentious activity (beyond civil war, protest, and terrorism), a wider range of units of analysis (beyond the nation year), and a wider range of empirical approaches in order to handle particular difficulties confronting this type of inquiry (beyond ordinary least-squares regression). Only then will we have a better and more comprehensive understanding of what contention does and does not do politically and economically. This review takes stock of existing research and lays out an approach for looking at the problem using a more comprehensive perspective.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ANNUAL REVIEWS, 2019
Keywords
political violence, legacy of violence, outcomes, consequences, aftereffects, contention, civil conflict
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-390348 (URN)10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-064057 (DOI)000475728100020 ()
Available from: 2019-08-08 Created: 2019-08-08 Last updated: 2019-08-08Bibliographically approved
Hegre, H., Allansson, M., Basedau, M., Colaresi, M., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., . . . Vestby, J. (2019). ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), 155-174
Open this publication in new window or tab >>ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
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2019 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 56, no 2, p. 155-174Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.

Keywords
Africa, armed conflict, forecasting
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-377187 (URN)10.1177/0022343319823860 (DOI)000461239400001 ()
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 694640Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC)
Available from: 2019-02-15 Created: 2019-02-15 Last updated: 2019-04-11Bibliographically approved
Fjelde, H. & Höglund, K. (2018). Ethnic Politics and Elite Competition: The Roots of Electoral Violence in Kenya (1ed.). In: Mimmi Söderberg Kovacs; Jesper Bjarnesen (Ed.), Violence in African Elections: Between Democracy and Big Man Politics (pp. 27-46). London: Zed Books
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Ethnic Politics and Elite Competition: The Roots of Electoral Violence in Kenya
2018 (English)In: Violence in African Elections: Between Democracy and Big Man Politics / [ed] Mimmi Söderberg Kovacs; Jesper Bjarnesen, London: Zed Books, 2018, 1, p. 27-46Chapter in book (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: Zed Books, 2018 Edition: 1
Keywords
elections, violence, Kenya
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-351655 (URN)978-1-78699-228-4 (ISBN)
Available from: 2018-05-29 Created: 2018-05-29 Last updated: 2018-09-19Bibliographically approved
Fjelde, H. & Nilsson, D. (2018). The Rise of Rebel Contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars. Journal of Peace Research, 55(5), 551-565
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Rise of Rebel Contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars
2018 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 55, no 5, p. 551-565Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-337943 (URN)10.1177/0022343318767497 (DOI)000441283400001 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2015-01235Swedish Research Council, 421-2009-1833Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, NHS 14-1701:1Swedish Research Council, Norska forskningsrådet, 250-441
Available from: 2018-01-05 Created: 2018-01-05 Last updated: 2019-06-27
von Uexkull, N., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H. & Buhaug, H. (2016). Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(44), 12391-12396
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought
2016 (English)In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 113, no 44, p. 12391-12396Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989-2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups' livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.

Keywords
armed conflict, climate variability, drought, ethnicity, georeferenced event data
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-308910 (URN)10.1073/pnas.1607542113 (DOI)000386608200038 ()27791091 (PubMedID)
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation AgencyEU, European Research Council, 648291
Available from: 2016-12-01 Created: 2016-12-01 Last updated: 2019-02-01Bibliographically approved
Fjelde, H. & Höglund, K. (2016). Electoral Institutions and Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. British Journal of Political Science, 46(2), 297-320
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Electoral Institutions and Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa
2016 (English)In: British Journal of Political Science, ISSN 0007-1234, E-ISSN 1469-2112, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 297-320Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Political violence remains a pervasive feature of electoral dynamics in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, even where multiparty elections have become the dominant mode of regulating access to political power. With cross-national data on electoral violence in Sub-Saharan African elections between 1990 and 2010, this article develops and tests a theory that links the use of violent electoral tactics to the high stakes put in place by majoritarian electoral institutions. It is found that electoral violence is more likely in countries that employ majoritarian voting rules and elect fewer legislators from each district. Majoritarian institutions are, as predicted by theory, particularly likely to provoke violence where large ethno-political groups are excluded from power and significant economic inequalities exist.

Keywords
violence, elections, Africa
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-281929 (URN)10.1017/S0007123414000179 (DOI)000373392700004 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 421/2010/1515
Available from: 2016-03-31 Created: 2016-03-31 Last updated: 2018-10-30Bibliographically approved
Fjelde, H., Hultman, L. & Lindberg Bromley, S. (2016). Offsetting Losses: Bargaining Power and Rebel Attacks on Peacekeepers. International Studies Quarterly, 60(4), 611-623
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Offsetting Losses: Bargaining Power and Rebel Attacks on Peacekeepers
2016 (English)In: International Studies Quarterly, ISSN 0020-8833, E-ISSN 1468-2478, Vol. 60, no 4, p. 611-623Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In recent years, international third parties have increasingly sought to manage the dire consequences of civil war, often by deploying peacekeeping operations. However, peacekeepers sometimes face deliberate attacks by armed groups. These attacks hamper efforts to provide humanitarian relief and security. This raises a critical question: what factors lead rebel groups to target peacekeepers? We argue that internal conflict dynamics are important for explaining this phenomenon. Rebels attack peacekeepers as an alternative strategy to undermine incumbent regimes. They adopt this strategy as the balance of power turns against them in their struggle against governments. We evaluate our argument using a novel event data set on violent attacks on peacekeepers in sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2009. We find a positive relationship between rebel losses and violent attacks on peacekeepers. These findings hold when controlling for mission-specific characteristics, time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity, and across different model specifications.

National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-314273 (URN)10.1093/isq/sqw017 (DOI)000392925300003 ()
Available from: 2017-02-01 Created: 2017-02-01 Last updated: 2019-02-01Bibliographically approved
Projects
ViEWS: a political Violence Early Warning System; Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research; Publications
Hultman, L., Nygård, H. M. & Hegre, H. (2019). Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations. Journal of Politics, 81(1), 215-232Hegre, H., Allansson, M., Basedau, M., Colaresi, M., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., . . . Vestby, J. (2019). ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), 155-174
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-5251-7309

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