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Publications (10 of 107) Show all publications
Scaini, A., Amvrosiadi, N., Hissler, C., Pfister, L. & Beven, K. (2019). Following tracer through the unsaturated zone using a multiple interacting pathways model: Implications from laboratory experiments. Hydrological Processes, 33(17), 2300-2313
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Following tracer through the unsaturated zone using a multiple interacting pathways model: Implications from laboratory experiments
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2019 (English)In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 33, no 17, p. 2300-2313Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Models must effectively represent velocities and celerities if they are to address the old water paradox. Celerity information is recorded indirectly in hydrograph observations, whereas velocity information is more difficult to measure and simulate effectively, requiring additional assumptions and parameters. Velocity information can be obtained from tracer experiments, but we often lack information on the influence of soil properties on tracer mobility. This study features a combined experimental and modelling approach geared towards the evaluation of different structures in the multiple interacting pathways (MIPs) model and validates the representation of velocities with laboratory tracer experiments using an undisturbed soil column. Results indicate that the soil microstructure was modified during the experiment. Soil water velocities were represented using MIPs, testing how the (a) shape of the velocity distribution, (b) transition probability matrices (TPMs), (c) presence of immobile storage, and (d) nonstationary field capacity influence the model's performance. In MIPs, the TPM controls exhanges of water between pathways. In our experiment, MIPs were able to provide a good representation of the pattern of outflow. The results show that the connectedness of the faster pathways is important for controlling the percolation of water and tracer through the soil. The best model performance was obtained with the inclusion of immobile storage, but simulations were poor under the assumption of stationary parameters. The entire experiment was adequately simulated once a time-variable field capacity parameter was introduced, supporting the need for including the effects of soil microstructure changes observed during the experiment.

Keywords
celerity, soil properties, tracer mobility, velocity
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-331732 (URN)10.1002/hyp.13466 (DOI)000477502900001 ()
Available from: 2017-10-17 Created: 2017-10-17 Last updated: 2019-12-06Bibliographically approved
Metcalfe, P., Beven, K., Hankin, B. & Lamb, R. (2018). A new method, with application, for analysis of the impacts on flood risk of widely distributed enhanced hillslope storage. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(4), 2589-2605
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A new method, with application, for analysis of the impacts on flood risk of widely distributed enhanced hillslope storage
2018 (English)In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, no 4, p. 2589-2605Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Enhanced hillslope storage is utilised in natural flood management in order to retain overland storm run-off and to reduce connectivity between fast surface flow pathways and the channel. Examples include excavated ponds, deepened or bunded accumulation areas, and gullies and ephemeral channels blocked with wooden barriers or debris dams.

The performance of large, distributed networks of such measures is poorly understood. Extensive schemes can potentially retain large quantities of run-off, but there are indications that much of their effectiveness can be attributed to desynchronisation of sub-catchment flood waves. Inappropriately sited measures may therefore increase, rather than mitigate, flood risk. Fully distributed hydrodynamic models have been applied in limited studies but introduce significant computational complexity. The longer run times of such models also restrict their use for uncertainty estimation or evaluation of the many potential configurations and storm sequences that may influence the timings and magnitudes of flood waves.

Here a simplified overland flow-routing module and semi-distributed representation of enhanced hillslope storage is developed. It is applied to the headwaters of a large rural catchment in Cumbria, UK, where the use of an extensive network of storage features is proposed as a flood mitigation strategy. The models were run within a Monte Carlo framework against data for a 2-month period of extreme flood events that caused significant damage in areas downstream. Acceptable realisations and likelihood weightings were identified using the GLUE uncertainty estimation framework. Behavioural realisations were rerun against the catchment model modified with the addition of the hillslope storage. Three different drainage rate parameters were applied across the network of hillslope storage.

The study demonstrates that schemes comprising widely distributed hillslope storage can be modelled effectively within such a reduced complexity framework. It shows the importance of drainage rates from storage features while operating through a sequence of events. We discuss limitations in the simplified representation of overland flow-routing and representation and storage, and how this could be improved using experimental evidence. We suggest ways in which features could be grouped more strategically and thus improve the performance of such schemes.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-356092 (URN)10.5194/hess-22-2589-2018 (DOI)000431150400001 ()
Funder
European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
Available from: 2018-07-19 Created: 2018-07-19 Last updated: 2018-07-19Bibliographically approved
Vrugt, J. A. & Beven, K. (2018). Embracing equifinality with efficiency: Limits of Acceptability sampling using the DREAM(LOA) algorithm. Journal of Hydrology, 559, 954-971
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Embracing equifinality with efficiency: Limits of Acceptability sampling using the DREAM(LOA) algorithm
2018 (English)In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 559, p. 954-971Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This essay illustrates some recent developments to the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) MATLAB toolbox of Vrugt (2016) to delineate and sample the behavioural solution space of set-theoretic likelihood functions used within the GLUE (Limits of Acceptability) framework (Beven and Binley, 1992, 2014; Beven and Freer, 2001; Beven, 2006). This work builds on the DREAM(ABC) algorithm of Sadegh and Vrugt (2014) and enhances significantly the accuracy and CPU-efficiency of Bayesian inference with GLUE. In particular it is shown how lack of adequate sampling in the model space might lead to unjustified model rejection.

Keywords
GLUE, Limits of Acceptability, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Posterior sampling, DREAM, DREAM((LOA)), Sufficiency, Hydrological modelling
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-355685 (URN)10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.026 (DOI)000430902000075 ()
Available from: 2018-07-03 Created: 2018-07-03 Last updated: 2018-07-03Bibliographically approved
Beven, K., Almeida, S., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Blazkova, S., Borgomeo, E., . . . Wilkins, K. L. (2018). Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas. Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 18(10), 2741-2768
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas
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2018 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 18, no 10, p. 2741-2768Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are currently considered in the most widely occurring natural hazard areas, including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. Our aim is to provide an overview of the types of epistemic uncertainty in the analysis of these natural hazards and to discuss how they have been treated so far to bring out some commonalities and differences. The breadth of our study makes it difficult to go into great detail on each aspect covered here; hence the focus lies on providing an overview and on citing key literature. We find that in current probabilistic approaches to the problem, uncertainties are all too often treated as if, at some fundamental level, they are aleatory in nature. This can be a tempting choice when knowledge of more complex structures is difficult to determine but not acknowledging the epistemic nature of many sources of uncertainty will compromise any risk analysis. We do not imply that probabilistic uncertainty estimation necessarily ignores the epistemic nature of uncertainties in natural hazards; expert elicitation for example can be set within a probabilistic framework to do just that. However, we suggest that the use of simple aleatory distributional models, common in current practice, will underestimate the potential variability in assessing hazards, consequences, and risks. A commonality across all approaches is that every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of the sources of epistemic uncertainty. It is therefore important to record the assumptions made and to evaluate their impact on the uncertainty estimate. Additional guidelines for good practice based on this review are suggested in the companion paper (Part 2).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2018
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-369947 (URN)10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018 (DOI)000448276200001 ()
Available from: 2018-12-18 Created: 2018-12-18 Last updated: 2018-12-18Bibliographically approved
Beven, K., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., . . . Watson, M. (2018). Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2: What should constitute good practice?. Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 18(10), 2769-2783
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2: What should constitute good practice?
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2018 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 18, no 10, p. 2769-2783Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Part 1 of this paper has discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited understanding of the processes involved in different natural hazard areas. Such deficits may include uncertainties about frequencies, process representations, parameters, present and future boundary conditions, consequences and impacts, and the meaning of observations in evaluating simulation models. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities, even as elicited probabilities rationalized on the basis of expert judgements. This paper reviews the issues raised by trying to quantify the effects of epistemic uncertainties. Such scientific uncertainties might have significant influence on decisions made, say, for risk management, so it is important to examine the sensitivity of such decisions to different feasible sets of assumptions, to communicate the meaning of associated uncertainty estimates, and to provide an audit trail for the analysis. A conceptual framework for good practice in dealing with epistemic uncertainties is outlined and the implications of applying the principles to natural hazard assessments are discussed. Six stages are recognized, with recommendations at each stage as follows: (1) framing the analysis, preferably with input from potential users; (2) evaluating the available data for epistemic uncertainties, especially when they might lead to inconsistencies; (3) eliciting information on sources of uncertainty from experts; (4) defining a workflow that will give reliable and accurate results; (5) assessing robustness to uncertainty, including the impact on any decisions that are dependent on the analysis; and (6) communicating the findings and meaning of the analysis to potential users, stakeholders, and decision makers. Visualizations are helpful in conveying the nature of the uncertainty outputs, while recognizing that the deeper epistemic uncertainties might not be readily amenable to visualizations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2018
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-369900 (URN)10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018 (DOI)000448276200002 ()
Available from: 2018-12-19 Created: 2018-12-19 Last updated: 2018-12-19Bibliographically approved
Westerberg, I., Di Baldassarre, G., Beven, K., Coxon, G. & Krueger, T. (2018). Reply to Discussion of "Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example"(*) [Letter to the editor]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63(13-14), 2001-2003
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reply to Discussion of "Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example"(*)
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2018 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 63, no 13-14, p. 2001-2003Article in journal, Letter (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models - making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a "certified" scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as "pragmatic realists" in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.

Keywords
uncertainty, socio-hydrology, perceptual model, flood risk, change analysis
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-373082 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2018.1547505 (DOI)000453717400011 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 942-2015-321
Available from: 2019-01-11 Created: 2019-01-11 Last updated: 2019-01-11Bibliographically approved
Metcalfe, P., Beven, K., Hankin, B. & Lamb, R. (2017). A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature-based approaches to flood risk management, with application to in-channel interventions across a 29-km(2) scale catchment in the United Kingdom. Hydrological Processes, 31(9), 1734-1748
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature-based approaches to flood risk management, with application to in-channel interventions across a 29-km(2) scale catchment in the United Kingdom
2017 (English)In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 31, no 9, p. 1734-1748Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Nature-based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in-channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in-channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000m(3) is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double-peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature-based approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WILEY, 2017
Keywords
flood hydraulics, natural flood risk management, nature-based solutions, semidistributed hydrological models
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-322717 (URN)10.1002/hyp.11140 (DOI)000400159100005 ()
Available from: 2017-05-29 Created: 2017-05-29 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Fuentes-Andino, D., Beven, K., Kauffeldt, A., Xu, C.-Y., Halldin, S. & Di Baldassarre, G. (2017). Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(2), 232-245
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions
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2017 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 2, p. 232-245Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.

Keywords
rainfall multiplier, rainfall input error, reliability of the predictions, precision of predictions, Topmodel, floods
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-291537 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2016.1183775 (DOI)000392602000006 ()
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, 54100006Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC), p2011010
Available from: 2016-05-03 Created: 2016-05-03 Last updated: 2018-09-03Bibliographically approved
Westerberg, I. K., Di Baldassarre, G., Beven, K. J., Coxon, G. & Krueger, T. (2017). Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(11), 1705-1713
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example
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2017 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 11, p. 1705-1713Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis.Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources - and different perceptions thereof - explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
T, 2017
Keywords
Uncertainty, socio-hydrology, perceptual model, flood risk, change analysis
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-333621 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2017.1356926 (DOI)000407513700001 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 942-2015-321EU, FP7, Seventh Framework Programme, 329762NERC - the Natural Environment Research Council, NE/L010399/1
Available from: 2017-11-16 Created: 2017-11-16 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Ameli, A. A., Beven, K., Erlandsson, M., Creed, I. F., McDonnell, J. J. & Bishop, K. (2017). Primary weathering rates, water transit times, and concentration-discharge relations: A theoretical analysis for the critical zone. Water resources research, 53(1), 942-960
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Primary weathering rates, water transit times, and concentration-discharge relations: A theoretical analysis for the critical zone
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2017 (English)In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 53, no 1, p. 942-960Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The permeability architecture of the critical zone exerts a major influence on the hydrogeochemistry of the critical zone. Water flow path dynamics drive the spatiotemporal pattern of geochemical evolution and resulting streamflow concentration-discharge (C-Q) relation, but these flow paths are complex and difficult to map quantitatively. Here we couple a new integrated flow and particle tracking transport model with a general reversible Transition State Theory style dissolution rate law to explore theoretically how C-Q relations and concentration in the critical zone respond to decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) with soil depth. We do this for a range of flow rates and mineral reaction kinetics. Our results show that for minerals with a high ratio of equilibrium concentration ( Ceq) to intrinsic weathering rate ( Rmax), vertical heterogeneity in K-s enhances the gradient of weathering-derived solute concentration in the critical zone and strengthens the inverse stream C-Q relation. As <mml:mfrac>CeqRmax</mml:mfrac> decreases, the spatial distribution of concentration in the critical zone becomes more uniform for a wide range of flow rates, and stream C-Q relation approaches chemostatic behavior, regardless of the degree of vertical heterogeneity in K-s. These findings suggest that the transport-controlled mechanisms in the hillslope can lead to chemostatic C-Q relations in the stream while the hillslope surface reaction-controlled mechanisms are associated with an inverse stream C-Q relation. In addition, as <mml:mfrac>CeqRmax</mml:mfrac> decreases, the concentration in the critical zone and stream become less dependent on groundwater age (or transit time).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2017
Keywords
chemical weathering, conductivity profile, stream C-Q relation, saturated-unsaturated flow and transport, transit time
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-319876 (URN)10.1002/2016WR019448 (DOI)000394911200055 ()
Funder
Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council FormasThe Kempe Foundations
Available from: 2017-04-13 Created: 2017-04-13 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-7465-3934

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