uu.seUppsala University Publications
Change search
Link to record
Permanent link

Direct link
BETA
Di Baldassarre, GiulianoORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-8180-4996
Alternative names
Publications (10 of 108) Show all publications
Weyrich, P., Mondino, E., Borga, M., Di Baldassarre, G., Patt, A. & Scolobig, A. (2020). A flood-risk-oriented, dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behaviours. Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 20(1), 287-298
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A flood-risk-oriented, dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behaviours
Show others...
2020 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 20, no 1, p. 287-298Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Private risk reduction behaviours can significantly reduce the negative impacts of flooding and flash floods. Over the past decades, researchers have used various socio-cognitive models or threat and coping mechanisms to explain individual protective behaviours. However, these models ignore the fact that people are not equally ready to act upon a danger, and they (the models) give limited insights into the effectiveness of communication strategies to foster risk reduction behaviours. Therefore, we explored the current state of homeowners' readiness to undertake risk reduction behaviours in flood risk areas by applying a dynamic protection motivation framework. We conducted a survey in an Italian municipality that experienced severe flash flooding in September 2018. The results show that people are motivated by different factors in prompting risk reduction behaviour based on their chosen types of protective measures. For example, people that undertook structural or avoidance measures are more likely to be motivated to protect themselves by increased perceptions of vulnerability and response efficacy and are less worried about expected flood losses compared to people that undertook only basic emergency measures. In this paper, we argue how these new insights contribute to targeting flood risk communication strategies to groups of individuals characterized by different readiness stages and motivations to protect themselves.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH, 2020
National Category
Sociology Applied Psychology
Research subject
Hydrology; Sociology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-403727 (URN)10.5194/nhess-20-287-2020 (DOI)000509388300001 ()
Available from: 2020-02-03 Created: 2020-02-03 Last updated: 2020-03-09Bibliographically approved
De Luca, P., Messori, G., Wilby, R. L., Mazzoleni, M. & Di Baldassarre, G. (2020). Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale. Earth System Dynamics, 11(1), 251-266
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
Show others...
2020 (English)In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 11, no 1, p. 251-266Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Multi-hazard events can be associated with larger socio-economic impacts than single-hazard events. Understanding the spatio-temporal interactions that characterize the former is therefore of relevance to disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we consider two high-impact hazards, namely wet and dry hydrological extremes, and quantify their global co-occurrence. We define these using the monthly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index based on the Penman-Monteith model (sc_PDSI_pm), covering the period 1950-2014, at 2.5 degrees horizontal resolution. We find that the land areas affected by extreme wet, dry, and wet-dry events (i.e. geographically remote yet temporally co-occurring wet or dry extremes) are all increasing with time, the trends of which in dry and wet-dry episodes are significant (p value << 0.01). The most geographically widespread wet-dry event was associated with the strong La Nina in 2010. This caused wet-dry anomalies across a land area of 21 million km(2) with documented high-impact flooding and drought episodes spanning diverse regions. To further elucidate the interplay of wet and dry extremes at a grid cell scale, we introduce two new metrics: the wet-dry (WD) ratio and the extreme transition (ET) time intervals. The WD ratio measures the relative occurrence of wet or dry extremes, whereas ET quantifies the average separation time of hydrological extremes with opposite signs. The WD ratio shows that the incidence of wet extremes dominates over dry extremes in the USA, northern and southern South America, northern Europe, north Africa, western China, and most of Australia. Conversely, dry extremes are more prominent in most of the remaining regions. The median ET for wet to dry is similar to 27 months, while the dry-to-wet median ET is 21 months. We also evaluate correlations between wet-dry hydrological extremes and leading modes of climate variability, namely the El Nina-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). We find that ENSO and PDO have a similar influence globally, with the former significantly impacting (p value < 0.05) a larger area (18.1 % of total sc_PDSI_pm area) compared to the latter (12.0 %), whereas the AMO shows an almost inverse pattern and significantly impacts the largest area overall (18.9 %). ENSO and PDO show the most significant correlations over northern South America, the central and western USA, the Middle East, eastern Russia, and eastern Australia. On the other hand, the AMO shows significant associations over Mexico, Brazil, central Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, China, and eastern Russia. Our analysis brings new insights on hydrological multi-hazards that are of relevance to governments and organizations with globally distributed interests. Specifically, the multi-hazard maps may be used to evaluate worst-case disaster scenarios considering the potential co-occurrence of wet and dry hydrological extremes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2020
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-408112 (URN)10.5194/esd-11-251-2020 (DOI)000518771000001 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2016-03724
Available from: 2020-04-04 Created: 2020-04-04 Last updated: 2020-04-04Bibliographically approved
Mondino, E., Scolobig, A., Borga, M., Albrecht, F., Mård, J., Weyrich, P. & Di Baldassarre, G. (2020). Exploring changes in hydrogeological risk awareness and preparedness over time: a case study in northeastern Italy. Hydrological Sciences Journal
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring changes in hydrogeological risk awareness and preparedness over time: a case study in northeastern Italy
Show others...
2020 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Hydrogeological hazards are increasingly causing damage worldwide due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Building resilient communities is crucial to reduce potential losses. To this end, one of the first steps is to understand how people perceive potential threats around them. This study aims at exploring how risk awareness of, and preparedness to, face hydrological hazards changes over time. A cohort study was carried out in two villages in the northeastern Italian Alps, Romagnano and Vermiglio, affected by debris flows in 2000 and 2002. Surveys were conducted in 2005 and 2018, and the results compared. The survey data show that both awareness and preparedness decreased over time. We attribute this change to the fact that no event had occurred in a long time and to a lack of proper risk communication strategies. The outcomes of this study contribute to socio-hydrological modelling by providing empirical data on human behaviour dynamics.

Keywords
sociohydrology, risk awareness, risk preparedness, debris flow, longitudinal data, hydrogeological hazard
National Category
Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology) Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sociology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-405297 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2020.1729361 (DOI)
Available from: 2020-02-27 Created: 2020-02-27 Last updated: 2020-03-10Bibliographically approved
Oriangi, G., Albrecht, F., Di Baldassarre, G., Bamutaze, Y., Mukwaya, P. I., Ardö, J. & Pilesjö, P. (2020). Household resilience to climate change hazards in Uganda. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 12(1), 59-73
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Household resilience to climate change hazards in Uganda
Show others...
2020 (English)In: International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, ISSN 1756-8692, E-ISSN 1756-8706, Vol. 12, no 1, p. 59-73Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose As climate change shocks and stresses increasingly affect urban areas in developing countries, resilience is imperative for the purposes of preparation, recovery and adaptation. This study aims to investigate demographic characteristics and social networks that influence the household capacity to prepare, recover and adapt when faced with prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events in Mbale municipality in Eastern Uganda. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional research design was used to elicit subjective opinions. Previous studies indicate the importance of subjective approaches for measuring social resilience but their use has not been well explored in the context of quantifying urban resilience to climate change shocks and stresses. This study uses 389 structured household interviews to capture demographic characteristics, social networks and resilience capacities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for analysis. Findings The ability of low-income households to meet their daily expenditure needs, household size, and networks with relatives and non government organizations (NGOs) were significant determinants of preparedness, recovery and adaptation to prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events. Originality/value Even the low-income households are substantially more likely to prepare for and recover from prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events if they can meet their daily expenditure needs. This finding is noteworthy because the poorest in society are generally the most vulnerable to hazards.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
EMERALD GROUP PUBLISHING LTD, 2020
Keywords
Resilience, Drought, Urban, Networks, Rainfall, Demographic
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-403494 (URN)10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2018-0069 (DOI)000506418000004 ()
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
Available from: 2020-01-29 Created: 2020-01-29 Last updated: 2020-01-29Bibliographically approved
Okoli, K., Mazzoleni, M., Breinl, K. & Di Baldassarre, G. (2019). A systematic comparison of statistical and hydrological methods for design flood estimation. Hydrology Research, 50(6), 1665-1678
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A systematic comparison of statistical and hydrological methods for design flood estimation
2019 (English)In: Hydrology Research, ISSN 1998-9563, E-ISSN 2224-7955, Vol. 50, no 6, p. 1665-1678Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We compare statistical and hydrological methods to estimate design floods by proposing a framework based on virtual reality. To illustrate the framework, we used probability model selection and model averaging as statistical methods, while continuous simulations made with a simple or a perfect rainfall-runoff model are used as hydrological methods. The results of our numerical exercise show that design floods estimated by using a simple rainfall-runoff model have small parameter uncertainty and limited errors, even for high return periods. Statistical methods perform better than the linear reservoir model in terms of median errors for high return periods, but their uncertainty (i.e. variance of the error) is larger. Moreover, selecting the best fitting probability distribution is associated with numerous outliers. On the contrary, using multiple probability distributions, regardless of their capability in fitting the data, leads to significantly less outliers, while keeping a similar accuracy. Thus, we find that, among the statistical methods, model averaging is a better option than model selection. Our results also show the relevance of the precautionary principle in design flood estimation, and thus help develop general recommendations for practitioners and experts involved in flood risk reduction.

National Category
Water Engineering
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-390357 (URN)10.2166/nh.2019.188 (DOI)000503261700015 ()
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas
Available from: 2019-08-08 Created: 2019-08-08 Last updated: 2020-01-16Bibliographically approved
Okoli, K., Breinl, K., Mazzoleni, M. & Di Baldassarre, G. (2019). Design Flood Estimation: Exploring the Potentials and Limitations of Two Alternative Approaches. Water, 11(4), Article ID 729.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Design Flood Estimation: Exploring the Potentials and Limitations of Two Alternative Approaches
2019 (English)In: Water, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 11, no 4, article id 729Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The design of flood defence structures requires the estimation of flood water levels corresponding to a given probability of exceedance, or return period. In river flood management, this estimation is often done by statistically analysing the frequency of flood discharge peaks. This typically requires three main steps. First, direct measurements of annual maximum water levels at a river cross-section are converted into annual maximum flows by using a rating curve. Second, a probability distribution function is fitted to these annual maximum flows to derive the design peak flow corresponding to a given return period. Third, the design peak flow is used as input to a hydraulic model to derive the corresponding design flood level. Each of these three steps is associated with significant uncertainty that affects the accuracy of estimated design flood levels. Here, we propose a simulation framework to compare this common approach (based on the frequency analysis of annual maximum flows) with an alternative approach based on the frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels. The rationale behind this study is that high water levels are directly measured, and they often come along with less uncertainty than river flows. While this alternative approach is common for storm surge and coastal flooding, the potential of this approach in the context of river flooding has not been sufficiently explored. Our framework is based on the generation of synthetic data to perform a numerical experiment and compare the accuracy and precision of estimated design flood levels based on either annual maximum river flows (common approach) or annual maximum water levels (alternative approach).

Keywords
Design flood, Design flood levels
National Category
Water Engineering
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-390325 (URN)10.3390/w11040729 (DOI)000473105700099 ()
Projects
Hydraulic Engineering
Available from: 2019-08-08 Created: 2019-08-08 Last updated: 2019-09-09Bibliographically approved
Ridolfi, E., Albrecht, F. & Di Baldassarre, G. (2019). Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(1), 12-20
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time
2019 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 65, no 1, p. 12-20Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Milton Park, Oxfordshire: Taylor & Francis, 2019
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-400961 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2019.1677907 (DOI)000493148700001 ()
Projects
HydroSocialExtreme, ERC 761678
Funder
EU, European Research Council, 761678
Available from: 2020-01-03 Created: 2020-01-03 Last updated: 2020-04-20Bibliographically approved
Nardi, F., Annis, A., Di Baldassarre, G., Vivoni, E. R. & Grimaldi, S. (2019). GFPLAIN250m, a global high-resolution dataset of Earth's floodplains. Scientific Data, 6, Article ID 180309.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>GFPLAIN250m, a global high-resolution dataset of Earth's floodplains
Show others...
2019 (English)In: Scientific Data, E-ISSN 2052-4463, Vol. 6, article id 180309Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Identifying floodplain boundaries is of paramount importance for earth, environmental and socioeconomic studies addressing riverine risk and resource management. However, to date, a global floodplain delineation using a homogeneous procedure has not been constructed. In this paper, we present the first, comprehensive, high-resolution, gridded dataset of Earth's floodplains at 250-m resolution (GFPLAIN250m). We use the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital terrain model and set of terrain analysis procedures for geomorphic floodplain delineations. The elevation data are processed by a fast geospatial tool for floodplain mapping available for download at https://github.com/fnardi/GFPLAIN. The GFPLAIN250m dataset can support many applications, including flood hazard mapping, habitat restoration, development studies, and the analysis of human-flood interactions. To test the GFPLAIN250m dataset, we perform a consistency analysis with floodplain delineations derived by flood hazard modelling studies in Europe.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2019
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-375870 (URN)10.1038/sdata.2018.309 (DOI)000455601400001 ()30644852 (PubMedID)
Funder
EU, European Research Council, 761678
Available from: 2019-02-04 Created: 2019-02-04 Last updated: 2019-02-04Bibliographically approved
Rusca, M. & Di Baldassarre, G. (2019). Interdisciplinary Critical Geographies of Water: Capturing the Mutual Shaping of Society and Hydrological Flows. Water, 11(10), Article ID 1973.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Interdisciplinary Critical Geographies of Water: Capturing the Mutual Shaping of Society and Hydrological Flows
2019 (English)In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 11, no 10, article id 1973Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In light of recent calls for an increased commitment to interdisciplinary endeavors, this paper reflects on the implications of a critical geography of water that crosses social and natural sciences. Questions on how to best research the relationship between water and society have been raised both in the field of critical geographies of water and sociohydrology. Yet, there has been little crossover between these disciplinary perspectives. This, we argue, may be partly explained by the fact that interdisciplinary research is both advocated and antagonized. On the one hand, interdisciplinarity is argued to deliver more in terms of effectively informing policy processes and developing theoretical perspectives that can reform and regenerate knowledge. On the other hand, natural and social sciences are often presented as ontologically, epistemologically, and methodologically incompatible. Drawing on our own research experience and expertise, this paper focuses on the multiple ways in which critical geographies of water and sociohydrology are convergent, compatible, and complementary. We reflect on the existing theoretical instruments to engage in interdisciplinary research and question some of the assumptions on the methodological and epistemological incompatibility between natural and social sciences. We then propose that an interdisciplinary resource geography can further understandings of how power and the non-human co-constitute the social world and hydrological flows and advance conceptualizations of water as socionatures.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2019
Keywords
critical geography, interdisciplinary studies, socionatures, hydrosocial cycle, sociohydrology
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-398438 (URN)10.3390/w11101973 (DOI)000495598400018 ()
Funder
EU, European Research Council, 771678
Available from: 2019-12-06 Created: 2019-12-06 Last updated: 2019-12-06Bibliographically approved
Gebrehiwot, S. G., Di Baldassarre, G., Bishop, K., Halldin, S. & Breuer, L. (2019). Is observation uncertainty masking the signal of land use change impacts on hydrology?. Journal of Hydrology, 570, 393-400
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Is observation uncertainty masking the signal of land use change impacts on hydrology?
Show others...
2019 (English)In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 570, p. 393-400Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Analysis of hydrological impacts of land use change raises questions about whether, and how much, such impacts are misrepresented because of errors in river flow observations. In this paper, land use change impacts (represented by changes in watershed storage) and different ranges of discharge measurement error are compared to assess how errors in discharge measurement can potentially mask a land use change impact. Using a watershed from the Ethiopian highlands to exemplify this, we simulated five different levels of land use change impacts with five levels of watershed storage reductions (from 10% to 50% change) and the associated time series of runoff. Different levels of observation error were then introduced into these artificial time series. Comparison was made between every pair, i.e. a time series derived from a certain level of land use change (storage reduction) versus a time series corresponding to a given level of observation error, using a step-change t-test. Significant step-changes between pairs define the detectability of land use change impact. The analysis was made for the entire 30-year time series as well as for the most extreme annual weather conditions. The results showed that for the average year and wettest year, 75% or more error in observed discharge masks the maximum simulated land use change impact on hydrology. In dry years, a 50% error in discharge is enough to mask the same impact. Knowing (and improving) the level of data quality contributes to a better understanding of hydrological uncertainties and improves the precision in assessing land use change impacts. Both of these are essential elements in water resources development planning.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2019
Keywords
Detectability, Discharge, Error range, Watershed storage, Upper-Didesa watershed
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-380488 (URN)10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.058 (DOI)000460709400031 ()
Available from: 2019-03-28 Created: 2019-03-28 Last updated: 2019-03-28Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-8180-4996

Search in DiVA

Show all publications