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We investigate changes in the global reported fatalities from earthquake disasters in the global Emergency Events Database (EM‐DAT). Drawing parallels with the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude analysis, in terms of disaster frequency versus the number of casualties, we see a significant overlap of the curves and improving levels of completeness over six 20‐year periods. This implies a decrease in underreporting with time. We find that the apparent strong upward trend in the number of (reported) earthquake disasters in EM‐DAT is caused by a gradually improved reporting primarily of events killing fewer than 10 people. Our findings imply that the true (reported and unreported) number of earthquake disasters, according to the EM‐DAT definition, has been surprisingly constant over, at least, the last 100 yr. We also show that the average annual number of people killed in earthquake disasters is relatively unaffected by spurious trends in reporting and has remained remarkably constant despite population increase. This implies an impressive reduced mortality risk roughly proportional to population increase since 1900. However, there is no indication in the data that the risk of future mega‐disasters is negligible, and further major reductions in vulnerability should be actively pursued. 

Distinguishing between different types of seismic events is a task typically performed manually by expert analysts and can thus be both time and resource expensive. Analysts at the Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN) use four different event types in the routine analysis: natural (tectonic) earthquakes, blasts (e.g. from mines, quarries and construction) and two different types of mining-induced events associated with large, underground mines. In order to aid manual event classification and to classify automatic event definitions, we have used fully connected neural networks to implement classification models which distinguish between the four event types. For each event, we bandpass filter the waveform data in 20 narrow-frequency bands before dividing each component into four non-overlapping time windows, corresponding to the P phase, P coda, S phase and S coda. In each window, we compute the root-mean-square amplitude and the resulting array of amplitudes is then used as the neural network inputs. We compare results achieved using a station-specific approach, where individual models are trained for each seismic station, to a regional approach where a single model is trained for the whole study area. An extension of the models, which distinguishes spurious phase associations from real seismic events in automatic event definitions, has also been implemented. When applying our models to evaluation data distinguishing between earthquakes and blasts, we achieve an accuracy of about 98 per cent for automatic events and 99 per cent for manually analysed events. In areas located close to large underground mines, where all four event types are observed, the corresponding accuracy is about 90 and 96 per cent, respectively. The accuracy when distinguishing spurious events from real seismic events is about 95 per cent. We find that the majority of erroneous classifications can be traced back to uncertainties in automatic phase picks and location estimates. The models are already in use at the SNSN, both for preliminary type predictions of automatic events and for reviewing manually analysed events.

Assessing seismic hazard in stable continental regions such as Sweden poses unique challenges compared to active seismic regions. With diffuse seismicity, low seismicity rate, few large-magnitude earthquakes and little strong-motion data, estimating recurrence parameters and determining appropriate attenuation relationships is challenging. This study presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Sweden based on a recent earthquake catalogue, which includes a high number of events with magnitudes ranging from M_w −1.4 to M_w 5.9, enabling recurrence parameters to be calculated for smaller source zones than in previous studies and with less uncertainty. Recent ground motion models developed specifically for stable continental regions, including Fennoscandia, are used in the logic tree accounting for their uncertainty, and the hazard is calculated using the OpenQuake engine. The results are presented in the form of mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps at 475- and 2500-year return periods and hazard curves for four seismically active areas in Sweden. We find the highest hazard in Sweden in the northernmost part of the country, in the post-glacial fault province. This is in contrast to previous studies, which have not considered the relatively high seismic activity on the post-glacial faults. We also find hazard to be relatively high along the northeast coast and in southwestern Sweden, whereas the southeast of Sweden and the mountain region to the northwest have low hazard. For a 475-year return period we estimate the highest PGA values to be 0.04–0.06 g in the far north, and for a 2500-year return period it is 0.1–0.15 g in the same area. Much remains to be addressed in regards to the intraplate seismicity in Sweden, including the homogenization of small local magnitudes with large moment magnitudes, the occurrence of large events in areas with little prior seismicity and the uncertainties surrounding the potential for large earthquakes on the post-glacial faults in northern Fennoscandia.

We investigate the utility of the P/S amplitude discriminant for small seismic events recorded at local distances on surface seismic networks using (1) mining-related events from within the Kloof gold mine in South Africa; and (2) mining-related events and earthquakes within and adjacent to the Kiruna iron ore mine in northern Sweden. For the Kloof mine, seventy-five source mechanisms characterized by moment tensor solutions obtained using high-frequency in-mine seismic data are used to evaluate three mine-related source types, isotropic (crush), compensated linear vector dipole (crush-slip), and double-couple (DC; pure slip). For the Kiruna mine region, 270 events are used to evaluate earthquake sources, chemical explosions, and mine-related seismic events (primarily isotropic). For the Kloof mine events, we find that average P/S amplitude ratios measured in the 2-6 Hz frequency band discriminate between isotropic and DC events, and if only pure-slip events with a DC component of >60% are considered, the effective frequency band can be extended from 2 to 8 Hz. For the Kiruna region events, P/S amplitude ratios effectively discriminate earthquakes from chemical explosions in the 4-6 Hz and 10-28 Hz frequency bands. Our findings further show that average P/S amplitude ratios for mine-related events and earthquakes separate at frequencies of 10 Hz and higher. A comparison of amplitude ratios for crush and pure-slip events located within a depth range of 1 km in the Kloof mine, and a comparison of amplitude ratios of shallow ( < 10 km depth) and deep-focus (>20 km depth) earthquakes in the Kiruna region, indicate that the P/S amplitude discriminant is not influenced significantly by source depth. These findings thus suggest that the P/S amplitude discriminant, originally developed for larger events recorded at regional and teleseismic distances, can be extended to smaller events recorded at local distances.

Traditional earthquake location relying on first arrival picking is challenging for microseismic events with low signal-to-noise ratio. Over the past years, alternative procedures have been explored based on the idea of migrating the energy of an earthquake back into its source position by stacking along theoretical traveltime curves. To avoid destructive interference of signals with opposite polarity, it is common to transform the input signals into positive time-series. Stacking-based source location has been successfully applied at various scales, but existing studies differ considerably in the choice of characteristic function, the amount of pre-processing and the phases used in the analysis. We use a data set of 62 natural microearthquakes recorded on a 2-D seismic array of 145 vertical geophones across the glacially triggered Burtrask fault to compare the performance of five commonly used characteristic functions: the noise filtered seismograms and the semblance, the envelope, the short-term average/long-term average ratio and the kurtosis gradient of the seismograms. We obtain the best results for a combined P- and S-wave location using a polarity-sensitive characteristic function, that is the filtered seismograms or the semblance. In contrast, the absolute functions often fail to align the signals properly, yielding biased location estimates. Moreover, we observe that the success of the procedure is very sensitive to noise suppression and signal shaping prior to stacking. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of including lower quality S-wave data to improve the location estimates. Furthermore, our results illustrate the benefits of retaining the phase information for location accuracy and noise suppression. To ensure optimal location results, we recommend carefully pre-processing the data and test different characteristic functions for each new data set. Despite the suboptimal array geometry, we obtain good locations for most events within similar to 30-40 km of the survey and the locations are consistent with an image of the fault trace from an earlier reflection seismic survey.

Strong compressive and shear stresses generated by glacial loading and unloading have a direct impact on near-surface geological processes. Glacial stresses are constantly evolving, creating stress perturbations in the lithosphere that extend significant distances away from the ice. In the Arctic, periodic methane seepage and faulting have been recurrently associated with glacial cycles. However, the evolution of the Arctic glacial stress field and its impact on the upper lithosphere have not been investigated. Here, we compute the evolution in space and time of the glacial stresses induced in the Arctic lithosphere by the North American, Eurasian and Greenland ice sheets during the latest glaciation. We use glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) methodology to investigate the response of spherical, viscoelastic Earth models with varying lithospheric thickness to the ice loads. We find that the GIA-induced maximum horizontal stress (sigma(H)) is compressive in regions characterized by thick ice cover, with magnitudes of 20-25 MPa in Fennoscandia and 35-40 MPa in Greenland at the last glacial maximum. Simultaneously, a tensile regime with sigma(H) magnitude down to -16 MPa dominates across the forebulges with a mean of -4 MPa in the Fram Strait. At present time, sigma(H) in the Fram Strait remains tensile with an East-West orientation. The evolution of GIA-induced stresses from the last glaciation to present could destabilize faults along tensile forebulges, for example, the west-coast of Svalbard. A more tensile stress regime as during the Last Glacial Maximum would have more impact on pre-existing faults that favor gas seepage from gas reservoirs.

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are a potential heat source in many parts of the world, even in locations where the temperature gradient is relatively low. We present here an integrated study of reflection seismic data, borehole logs and seismicity analysis performed in conjunction with a geothermal exploratory project operated by E.ON in Malmo center dot, Sweden. In 2020, the pre-existing 2.1 km deep FFC-1 borehole through the sedimentary cover was deepened into the crystalline basement to about 3.1 km vertical depth. Combined interpretation of the reflection seismic data and geophysical wireline logs show that most of the reflectivity in the Precambrian basement is likely generated by lenses of mafic amphibolite embedded in a felsic gneissic matrix. The general structural bedding and foliation is gently dipping to sub-horizontal, similar to other locations in southwest Sweden. Fracture frequency is relatively high in the crystalline rock mass, with heavy fracturing in the uppermost part of the crystalline basement, obscuring a clear reflection from the top of the Precambrian. Highly fractured and hydraulically conductive intervals are also found between 2,562 and 2,695 m based on a temperature drop and the interpretation of the geophysical data. Open fractures, both natural and induced, have a clear N-S orientation, contrasting with the expected NW-SE direction based on the orientation of the SorgenfreiTornquist Zone and earthquake fault plane solutions to the north. This difference may be partly explained by local variations in the stress field near the FFC-1 borehole and vairations in the stress field with depth. Despite this, the data from the FFC-1 well provide novel and unique information on the complex physical state of the crystalline basement on the margin of the Fennoscandian Shield, which further addresses the need for obtaining in-situ stress data to fully understand the local stress field prior to any stimulation. A temperature of 84 degrees C measured at 3 km depth indicates that a desired EGS temperature of 120-140 degrees C may be reached at 5-6 km depth, assuming a temperature gradient of about 20 degrees C. If the relatively high fracture frequency and occurrence of fracture zones down to 3.1 km are also present at these target depths, then the FFC-1 location may be suitable for heat extraction if the rock mass is properly characterized before stimulation.

We present a modeling technique for generating synthetic ground motions, aimed at earthquakes of design significance for critical structures and ground motions at distances corresponding to the engineering near field, in which real data are often missing. We use dynamic modeling based on the finite‐difference approach to simulate the rupture process within a fault, followed by kinematic modeling to generate the ground motions. The earthquake source ruptures were modeled using the 3D distinct element code (Itasca, 2013). We then used the complete synthetic program by Spudich and Xu (2002) to simulate the propagation of seismic waves and to obtain synthetic ground motions. In this work, we demonstrate the method covering the frequency ranges of engineering interests up to 25 Hz and quantify the differences in ground motion generated. We compare the synthetic ground motions for distances up to 30 km with a ground‐motion prediction equation, which synthesizes the expected ground motion and its randomness based on observations. The synthetic ground motions can be used to supplement observations in the near field for seismic hazard analysis. We demonstrate the hybrid approach to one critical site in the Fennoscandian Shield, northern Europe.

Accurate picking of head-wave arrival times is an important component of first-arrival traveltime tomography. Far-offset traces in particular have low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), but picking on these traces is necessary in order to obtain velocity information at depth. Furthermore, there is often an insufficient number of far-offset traces for obtaining reliable models at depth. We present here an extrapolation method for increasing the number of first arrivals beyond the maximum recorded offset, thereby extending the supervirtual refraction interferometry (SVI) method. We refer to the method as extrapolated SVI (ESVI). It is a novel attempt to extrapolate first arrivals using a fully data-driven method. We first test the methodology on synthetic data sets, and we then apply ESVI to two published real data sets over the Parvie fault system in northern Sweden. These data sets were acquired along the same profile at different times with different acquisition parameters and noise levels. The results show that ESVI enhances the SNR of head waves when the noise level is high. That is the same as the conventional SVI. ESVI also increases the number of pickable first arrivals by extrapolating head waves past the original maximum offset of each shot. We also show that the significant increase in first-arrival traveltime picks is beneficial for improving resolution and penetration depth in the tomographic imaging and, consequently, better revealing the subsurface velocity distribution. The tomographic images show higher velocities in the hanging walls of the main Parvie fault and another subsidiary fault, as interpreted relative to migrated images from previous seismic reflection processing.

The reactivation of glacially induced faults is linked to the increase and decrease of ice mass. But, whether faults are reactivated by glacially induced stresses depends to a large degree on the crustal stress field, fault properties and fluid pressures. The background (tectonic and lithostatic) stress field has a major effect on the potential for reactivation, as the varying stresses induced by the ice sheet affects the state of stress around the fault, bringing the fault to more stable or more unstable conditions. Here, we describe the effect of glacially induced stresses on fault reactivation under three potential background stress regimes of normal, strike-slip and thrust/reverse faulting. The Mohr diagram is used to illustrate how glacially induced stresses affect the location and the size of the Mohr circle. We review these different cases by applying an analysis of the stress state at different time points in the glacial cycle. In addition, we present an overview of fault properties that affect the reactivation of glacially induced faults, such as pore-fluid pressure and coefficient of friction.