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Karlsen, R., Bishop, K., Grabs, T. J., Ottosson-Lofvenius, M., Laudon, H. & Seibert, J. (2019). The role of landscape properties, storage and evapotranspiration on variability in streamflow recessions in a boreal catchment. Journal of Hydrology, 570, 315-328
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The role of landscape properties, storage and evapotranspiration on variability in streamflow recessions in a boreal catchment
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2019 (English)In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 570, p. 315-328Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Streamflow recession analysis provides valuable insights into catchment functioning that can be related to runoff generation, storage retention and baseflow dynamics. As an integrated characteristic, recession analysis is particularly useful in catchment comparison studies to help explain drivers of spatial and temporal variability in hydrological behavior. Here, five years of hourly streamflow data from 14, partly nested, catchments within a 68 km(2) boreal forest landscape in Northern Sweden were used to explore spatiotemporal variation in hydrological processes through recession analysis. The aim of this study was to better understand spatial variation in runoff generation and storage-discharge dynamics across the landscape, as well as the relation to landscape properties. Due to high collinearity between variables, partial least square regression was used to quantify the associations between recession characteristics and catchment properties, as well as to identify key variables controlling recession behavior. We analyzed recession characteristics using both an aggregated approach including all recession data and individual recession events. The analyses based on individual recession events, indicated that catchment topography, quantified by indices such as mean slope or elevation above the stream network, is a primary control on the recession behavior during relatively high flows, whereas catchment area gains importance when flows are relatively low. The proportion of sediment and deep soils also controlled recession behavior. Furthermore, we found that recession characteristics are influenced by both evapotranspiration (ET) and proxies of antecedent catchment storage, but that the patterns were different depending on catchment properties. ET was less influential in catchments with deeper soils and larger catchment area. Shifts in recession rates were primarily related to variation in storage, with faster streamflow recessions occurring during periods with low storage. The results demonstrate the influence of catchment properties on recession behavior, and we found great value in analyzing individual recession events for an increased understanding of spatial and temporal recession characteristics. When recession properties were lumped together, the relationships to catchment characteristics were obscured. This indicates the value of more detailed analyses, at least under the strongly seasonal hydroclimatic conditions of this site.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2019
Keywords
Recession curves, Spatio-temporal variability, Landscape analysis, Runoff, Krycklan
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-380487 (URN)10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.065 (DOI)000460709400025 ()
Funder
Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council FormasThe Kempe Foundations
Available from: 2019-04-02 Created: 2019-04-02 Last updated: 2019-04-02Bibliographically approved
Sikorska, A. E. & Seibert, J. (2018). Appropriate temporal resolution of precipitation data for discharge modelling in pre-alpine catchments. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63(1), 1-16
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Appropriate temporal resolution of precipitation data for discharge modelling in pre-alpine catchments
2018 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 63, no 1, p. 1-16Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are desired for hydrological modelling and flood studies. Yet the choice of an appropriate resolution is not straightforward because the use of too high a temporal resolution increases the data requirements, computational costs and, presumably, associated uncertainty, while performance improvement may be indiscernible. In this study, the effect of averaging hourly precipitation on model performance and associated uncertainty is investigated using two data sources: station network precipitation (SNP) and radar-based precipitation (RBP). From these datasets, time series of different temporal resolutions were generated, and runoff was simulated for 13 pre-alpine catchments with a bucket-type model. Our results revealed that different temporal resolutions were required for an acceptable model performance depending on the catchment size and data source. These were 1-12h for small (16-59km(2)), 3-21h for medium (60-200km(2)), and 24h for large (200-939km(2)) catchments.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2018
Keywords
radar-based precipitation, station network precipitation, averaging length, uncertainty, Bayesian methods, bucket-type model
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-342455 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2017.1410279 (DOI)000422685200001 ()
Available from: 2018-02-26 Created: 2018-02-26 Last updated: 2018-02-26Bibliographically approved
Brunner, M. I., Sikorska, A. E. & Seibert, J. (2018). Bivariate analysis of floods in climate impact assessments. Science of the Total Environment, 616-617, 1392-1403
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bivariate analysis of floods in climate impact assessments
2018 (English)In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 616-617, p. 1392-1403Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate impact studies regarding floods usually focus on peak discharges and a bivariate assessment of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes is not commonly included. A joint consideration of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, however, is crucial when assessing flood risks for current and future climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology to develop synthetic design hydrographs for future climate conditions that jointly consider peak discharges and hydrograph volumes. First, change factors are derived based on a regional climate model and are applied to observed precipitation and temperature time series. Second, the modified time series are fed into a calibrated hydrological model to simulate runoff time series for future conditions. Third, these time series are used to construct synthetic design hydrographs. The bivariate flood frequency analysis used in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs takes into account the dependence between peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, and represents the shape of the hydrograph. The latter is modeled using a probability density function while the dependence between the design variables peak discharge and hydrograph volume is modeled using a copula. We applied this approach to a set of eight mountainous catchments in Switzerland to construct catchment-specific and season-specific design hydrographs for a control and three scenario climates. Our work demonstrates that projected climate changes have an impact not only on peak discharges but also on hydrograph volumes and on hydrograph shapes both at an annual and at a seasonal scale. These changes are not necessarily proportional which implies that climate impact assessments on future floods should consider more flood characteristics than just flood peaks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2018
Keywords
Synthetic design hydrographs, Bivariate flood frequency, Seasonality, Hydrological modeling
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-346656 (URN)10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.176 (DOI)000424121800139 ()29111248 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2018-03-20 Created: 2018-03-20 Last updated: 2018-03-20Bibliographically approved
Reynolds, J. E., Halldin, S., Seibert, J. & Xu, C.-Y. (2018). Definitions of climatological and discharge days: do they matter in hydrological modelling?. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63(5), 836-844
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Definitions of climatological and discharge days: do they matter in hydrological modelling?
2018 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 63, no 5, p. 836-844Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The performance of hydrological models is affected by uncertainty related to observed climatological and discharge data. Although the latter has been widely investigated, the effects on hydrological models from different starting times of the day have received little interest. In this study, observational data from one tropical basin were used to investigate the effects on a typical bucket-type hydrological model, the HBV, when the definitions of the climatological and discharge days are changed. An optimization procedure based on a genetic algorithm was used to assess the effects on model performance. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies varied considerably between day definitions, with the largest dependence on the climatological-day definition. The variation was likely caused by how storm water was assigned to one or two daily rainfall values depending on the definition of the climatological day. Hydrological models are unlikely to predict high flows accurately if rainfall intensities are reduced because of the day definition.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2018
Keywords
climatological day, discharge day, rainfall-runoff model, daily resolution, regionalization, floods
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-353191 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2018.1451646 (DOI)000430212100010 ()
Available from: 2018-06-12 Created: 2018-06-12 Last updated: 2018-12-05Bibliographically approved
Wang, L., van Meerveld, H. J. & Seibert, J. (2018). Effect of Observation Errors on the Timing of the Most Informative Isotope Samples for Event-Based Model Calibration. HYDROLOGY, 5(1), Article ID 4.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Effect of Observation Errors on the Timing of the Most Informative Isotope Samples for Event-Based Model Calibration
2018 (English)In: HYDROLOGY, ISSN 2306-5338, Vol. 5, no 1, article id 4Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Many studies have shown that isotope data are valuable for hydrological model calibration. Recent developments have made isotope analyses more accessible but event sampling still involves significant time and financial costs. Therefore, it is worth to study how many isotope samples are needed for hydrological model calibration and what the most informative sampling times are. In this study, we used synthetic data to investigate how systematic errors in the precipitation, streamflow and the isotopic composition of precipitation affect the information content of stream isotope samples for model calibration. The results show that model performance improves significantly when two or three isotope samples are used for calibration and that the most informative samples are taken on the falling limb. However, when there are errors in the rainfall isotopic composition, rising limb samples are more informative. Data errors caused the most informative samples to be more clustered and to occur earlier in the event compared to error free data. These results provide guidance on when to sample events for model calibration and thus help to reduce the cost and effort in obtaining useful data for model calibration.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2018
Keywords
measurement error, sampling strategy, value of data, isotopes, event-based model calibration
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-375585 (URN)10.3390/hydrology5010004 (DOI)000455156200004 ()
Available from: 2019-01-31 Created: 2019-01-31 Last updated: 2019-01-31Bibliographically approved
Sikorska, A. E., Viviroli, D. & Seibert, J. (2018). Effective precipitation duration for runoff peaks based on catchment modelling. Journal of Hydrology, 556, 510-522
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Effective precipitation duration for runoff peaks based on catchment modelling
2018 (English)In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 556, p. 510-522Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Despite precipitation intensities may greatly vary during one flood event, detailed information about these intensities may not be required to accurately simulate floods with a hydrological model which rather reacts to cumulative precipitation sums. This raises two questions: to which extent is it important to preserve sub-daily precipitation intensities and how long does it effectively rain from the hydrological point of view? Both questions might seem straightforward to answer with a direct analysis of past precipitation events but require some arbitrary choices regarding the length of a precipitation event. To avoid these arbitrary decisions, here we present an alternative approach to characterize the effective length of precipitation event which is based on runoff simulations with respect to large floods. More precisely, we quantify the fraction of a day over which the daily precipitation has to be distributed to faithfully reproduce the large annual and seasonal floods which were generated by the hourly precipitation rate time series. New precipitation time series were generated by first aggregating the hourly observed data into daily totals and then evenly distributing them over sub-daily periods (n hours). These simulated time series were used as input to a hydrological bucket-type model and the resulting runoff flood peaks were compared to those obtained when using the original precipitation time series. We define then the effective daily precipitation duration as the number of hours n, for which the largest peaks are simulated best. For nine mesoscale Swiss catchments this effective daily precipitation duration was about half a day, which indicates that detailed information on precipitation intensities is not necessarily required to accurately estimate peaks of the largest annual and seasonal floods. These findings support the use of simple disaggregation approaches to make usage of past daily precipitation observations or daily precipitation simulations (e.g. from climate models) for hydrological modeling at an hourly time step.

Keywords
Effective precipitation duration, Flood events, Annual peaks, Seasonal peaks, Flood type, Fuzzy approach
National Category
Geology Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Water Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-346379 (URN)10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.028 (DOI)000423641300040 ()
Available from: 2018-03-23 Created: 2018-03-23 Last updated: 2018-03-23Bibliographically approved
Brunner, M. I., Viviroli, D., Furrer, R., Seibert, J. & Favre, A.-C. (2018). Identification of Flood Reactivity Regions via the Functional Clustering of Hydrographs. Water resources research, 54(3), 1852-1867
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Identification of Flood Reactivity Regions via the Functional Clustering of Hydrographs
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2018 (English)In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 54, no 3, p. 1852-1867Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Flood hydrograph shapes contain valuable information on the flood-generation mechanisms of a catchment. To make good use of this information, we express flood hydrograph shapes as continuous functions using a functional data approach. We propose a clustering approach based on functional data for flood hydrograph shapes to identify a set of representative hydrograph shapes on a catchment scale and use these catchment-specific sets of representative hydrographs to establish regions of catchments with similar flood reactivity on a regional scale. We applied this approach to flood samples of 163 medium-size Swiss catchments. The results indicate that three representative hydrograph shapes sufficiently describe the hydrograph shape variability within a catchment and therefore can be used as a proxy for the flood behavior of a catchment. These catchment-specific sets of three hydrographs were used to group the catchments into three reactivity regions of similar flood behavior. These regions were not only characterized by similar hydrograph shapes and reactivity but also by event magnitudes and triggering event conditions. We envision these regions to be useful in regionalization studies, regional flood frequency analyses, and to allow for the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in ungauged catchments. The clustering approach based on functional data which establish these regions is very flexible and has the potential to be extended to other geographical regions or toward the use in climate impact studies.

Keywords
clustering, functional data analysis, hydrograph shapes, homogeneous regions, regionalization
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354257 (URN)10.1002/2017WR021650 (DOI)000430364900025 ()
Available from: 2018-06-28 Created: 2018-06-28 Last updated: 2018-06-28Bibliographically approved
Jenicek, M., Seibert, J. & Staudinger, M. (2018). Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments. Water resources research, 54(1), 538-556
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments
2018 (English)In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 54, no 1, p. 538-556Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

It is expected that an increasing proportion of the precipitation will fall as rain in alpine catchments in the future. Consequently, snow storage is expected to decrease, which, together with changes in snowmelt rates and timing, might cause reductions in spring and summer low flows. The objectives of this study were (1) to simulate the effect of changing snow storage on low flows during the warm seasons and (2) to relate drought sensitivity to the simulated snow storage changes at different elevations. The Swiss Climate Change Scenarios 2011 data set was used to derive future changes in air temperature and precipitation. A typical bucket-type catchment model, HBV-light, was applied to 14 mountain catchments in Switzerland to simulate streamflow and snow in the reference period and three future periods. The largest relative decrease in annual maximum SWE was simulated for elevations below 2,200 m a.s.l. (60-75% for the period 2070-2099) and the snowmelt season shifted by up to 4 weeks earlier. The relative decrease in spring and summer minimum runoff that was caused by the relative decrease in maximum SWE (i.e., elasticity), reached 40-90% in most of catchments for the reference period and decreased for the future periods. This decreasing elasticity indicated that the effect of snow on summer low flows is reduced in the future. The fraction of snowmelt runoff in summer decreased by more than 50% at the highest elevations and almost disappeared at the lowest elevations. This might have large implications on water availability during the summer.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2018
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354535 (URN)10.1002/2017WR021648 (DOI)000428474000030 ()
Available from: 2018-07-16 Created: 2018-07-16 Last updated: 2018-07-16Bibliographically approved
Brunner, M. I., Seibert, J. & Favre, A.-C. (2018). Representative sets of design hydrographs for ungauged catchments: A regional approach using probabilistic region memberships. Advances in Water Resources, 112, 235-244
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Representative sets of design hydrographs for ungauged catchments: A regional approach using probabilistic region memberships
2018 (English)In: Advances in Water Resources, ISSN 0309-1708, E-ISSN 1872-9657, Vol. 112, p. 235-244Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Traditional design flood estimation approaches have focused on peak discharges and have often neglected other hydrograph characteristics such as hydrograph volume and shape. Synthetic design hydrograph estimation procedures overcome this deficiency by jointly considering peak discharge, hydrograph volume, and shape. Such procedures have recently been extended to allow for the consideration of process variability within a catchment by a flood-type specific construction of design hydrographs. However, they depend on observed runoff time series and are not directly applicable in ungauged catchments where such series are not available. To obtain reliable flood estimates, there is a need for an approach that allows for the consideration of process variability in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in ungauged catchments. In this study, we therefore propose an approach that combines a bivariate index flood approach with event-type specific synthetic design hydrograph construction. First, regions of similar flood reactivity are delineated and a classification rule that enables the assignment of ungauged catchments to one of these reactivity regions is established. Second, event-type specific synthetic design hydrographs are constructed using the pooled data divided by event type from the corresponding reactivity region in a bivariate index flood procedure. The approach was tested and validated on a dataset of 163 Swiss catchments. The results indicated that 1) random forest is a suitable classification model for the assignment of an ungauged catchment to one of the reactivity regions, 2) the combination of a bivariate index flood approach and event-type specific synthetic design hydrograph construction enables the consideration of event types in ungauged catchments, and 3) the use of probabilistic class memberships in regional synthetic design hydrograph construction helps to alleviate the problem of misclassification. Event-type specific synthetic design hydrograph sets enable the inclusion of process variability into design flood estimation and can be used as a compromise between single best estimate synthetic design hydrographs and continuous simulation studies.

Keywords
Classification, Random forest, Homogeneous regions, Regionalization, Mixtures, Floods
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-386323 (URN)10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.12.018 (DOI)000427990700017 ()
Available from: 2019-06-24 Created: 2019-06-24 Last updated: 2019-06-24Bibliographically approved
Reynolds, E., Halldin, S., Seibert, J., Xu, C.-Y. & Grabs, T. J. (2018). Robustness of Flood-Model Calibration using Single and Multiple Events. Hydrological Sciences Journal
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Robustness of Flood-Model Calibration using Single and Multiple Events
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2018 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-368457 (URN)
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
Available from: 2018-12-04 Created: 2018-12-04 Last updated: 2018-12-05
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-6314-2124

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