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Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
2010 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects total natural gas output in the EU to decrease from 216 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/year) in 2006 to 90 bcm/year in 2030. For the same period, EU demand for natural gas is forecast to increase rapidly. In 2006 demand for natural gas in the EU amounted to 532 bcm/year. By 2030, it is expected to reach 680 bcm/year. As a consequence, the widening gap between EU production and consumption requires a 90% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030. The main sources of imported gas for the EU are Russia and Norway. Between them they accounted for 62% of the EU’s gas imports in 2006. The objective of this thesis is to assess the potential future levels of gas supplies to the EU from its two main suppliers, Norway and Russia. Scenarios for future natural gas production potential for Norway and Russia have been modeled utilizing a bottom-up approach, building field-by-field, and individual modeling has been made for giant and semi- giant gas fields. In order to forecast the production profile for an individual giant natural gas field a Giant Gas Field Model (GGF-model) has been developed. The GGF-model has also been applied to production from an aggregate of fields, such as production from small fields and undiscovered resources.

Energy security in the EU is heavily dependent on gas supplies from a relatively small number of giant gas fields. In Norway almost all production originates from 18 fields of which 9 can be considered as giant fields. In Russia 36 giant fields account for essentially all gas production. There is limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU, and all of the scenarios investigated show Norwegian gas production in decline by 2030. Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU may even be, by 2030, 20 bcm/year lower than today’s level. The maximum increase in exports of Russian gas supplies to the EU amount to only 45% by 2030. In real numbers this means a mere increase of about 70 bcm In addition, there are a number of potential downside factors for future Russian gas supplies to the European markets. Consequently, a 90% increase of import volumes to the EU by 2030 will be impossible to achieve. From a European energy security perspective the dependence of pipeline gas imports is not the only energy security problem to be in the limelight, the question of physical availability of overall gas supplies deserves serious attention as well. There is a lively discussion regarding the geopolitical implications of European dependence on imported gas from Russia. However, the results of this thesis suggest that when assessing the future gas demand of the EU it would be of equal importance to be concerned about diminishing availability of global gas supplies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis , 2010. , p. 61
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 705
Keywords [en]
natural gas production, giant gas fields, depletion rate, forecasting, energy security, EU, Norway, Russia
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112229ISBN: 978-91-554-7698-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-112229DiVA, id: diva2:285447
Public defence
2010-02-19, Siegbahnsalen, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Uppsala, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2010-01-29 Created: 2010-01-12 Last updated: 2010-01-29Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
Open this publication in new window or tab >>How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?
2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 11, p. 4809-4818Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

According to the long term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA’s scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global "peak oil" would not occur before 2030.

Keywords
Peak oil, Depletion rate, R/P ratio
National Category
Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-109736 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.042 (DOI)000271824600063 ()
Available from: 2009-10-23 Created: 2009-10-23 Last updated: 2022-01-28Bibliographically approved
2. The Peak of the Oil Age: Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Peak of the Oil Age: Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
Show others...
2010 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 38, no 3, p. 1398-1414Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided in to 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable- resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, an alysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA’s present modeling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the ‘‘policy makers, investors and end users’’ to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford: Elsevier Ltd, 2010
Keywords
Future oil supply, Peak oil, World Energy Outlook 2008
National Category
Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112219 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.021 (DOI)000274500000019 ()
Available from: 2010-01-11 Created: 2010-01-11 Last updated: 2022-01-28
3. A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry
2007 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 35, no 3, p. 1931-1947Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash programme production, from Canada's oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006-2018 and 2006-2050. The implementation of a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today's dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada's obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada's oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash programme from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term crash programme results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.

Keywords
Oil sands, Canada, Peak oil
National Category
Physical Sciences
Research subject
Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112213 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2006.06.007 (DOI)000244848800045 ()
Available from: 2010-01-11 Created: 2010-01-11 Last updated: 2022-01-28Bibliographically approved
4. Future Danish oil and gas export
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Future Danish oil and gas export
2009 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 34, no 11, p. 1826-1834Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Denmark possesses only a small share of the exploitation rights to North Sea oil and is a minor producer when compared to Norway and the UK. However, Denmark is still an oil exporter and a very important supplier of oil for certain countries, in particular Sweden.

A field-by-field analysis of the Danish oil and gas fields, combined with estimated production contribution from new field developments, enhanced oil recovery and undiscovered fields, provides a future production outlook. The conclusion from this analysis is that by 2030 Denmark will no longer be an oil or gas exporter at all. Our results are also in agreement with the Danish Energy Authority’s own forecast, and may be seen as an independent confirmation of their general statements.

Decreasing Danish oil production, coupled with a rapid decline in Norway’s oil output, will force Sweden to import oil from more distant markets in the future, dramatically reducing Swedish energy security. If no new gas suppliers are introduced to the Swedish grid, then Swedish gas consumption is clearly predestined to crumble alongside declining Danish production. Future hydrocarbon production from Denmark displays a clear link to Sweden’s future energy security.

Keywords
Future Danish oil and gas production, Field-by-field analysis, Swedish energy security
National Category
Physical Sciences Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-109738 (URN)10.1016/j.energy.2009.07.028 (DOI)000272008200009 ()
Available from: 2009-10-23 Created: 2009-10-23 Last updated: 2022-01-28Bibliographically approved
5. European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production
Open this publication in new window or tab >>European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production
2009 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 37, no 12, p. 5037-5055Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25–40% from today’s level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20–25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118 bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127 bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline Export levels are 94–78 bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124–135 bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96–115 bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20 bcm lower than today’s level.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford: Elsevier Limited, 2009
Keywords
Norway, natural gas production, forecast
National Category
Physical Sciences
Research subject
Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112216 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.075 (DOI)000272426500005 ()
Available from: 2010-01-11 Created: 2010-01-11 Last updated: 2022-01-28Bibliographically approved
6. European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports
Open this publication in new window or tab >>European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports
2010 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 38, no 12, p. 7827-7843Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The widening gap between EU gas production and consumption may require an 87% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030, and there are great uncertainties regarding the amounts of gas that can be expected from new suppliers. The potential of increased production from Norway and Algeria is limited, hence, Russia is likely to play a crucial part of meeting the anticipated growing gas demand of the EU. A field-by-field study of 83 giant gas fields shows that the major producing Russian gas fields are in decline, and by 2013 much larger supplies from the Yamal Peninsula and the Shtokman field will be needed in order to avoid a decline in production. Gas from fields in Eastern Siberia and the Far East will mainly be directed to the Asian and Pacific Rim markets, thereby limiting its relevance to the European and CIS markets. As a result, the maximum export increase to the European and CIS markets amounts only to about 45% for the period 2015-2030. The discourse surrounding the EU’s dependence on Russian gas should thus not only be concerned with geopolitics, but also with the issue of resource limitations.

Keywords
Russia, giant gas fields, forecasting
National Category
Physical Sciences
Research subject
Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112221 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2010.08.042 (DOI)000285032000030 ()
Available from: 2010-01-11 Created: 2010-01-11 Last updated: 2022-01-28Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
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  • nn-NB
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Output format
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