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Bayesian Parameterization in the spread of Diseases
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Division of Scientific Computing.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Mathematical and computational epidemiological models are important tools in efforts to combat the spread of infectious diseases. The models can be used to predict further progression of an epidemic and for assessing potential countermeasures to control disease spread. In the proposal of models (when data is available), one needs parameter estimation methods. In this thesis, likelihood-less Bayesian inference methods are concerned. The data and the model originate from the spread of a verotoxigenic Escherichia coli in the Swedish cattle population. In using the SISE3 model, which is an extension of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model with added environmental pressure and three age categories, two different methods were employed to give an estimated posterior: Approximate Bayesian Computations and Synthetic Likelihood Markov chain Monte Carlo. The mean values of the resulting posteriors were close to the previously performed point estimates, which gives the conclusion that Bayesian inference on a nation scaled SIS-like network is conceivable.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , p. 46
Series
UPTEC F, ISSN 1401-5757 ; 17024
Keywords [en]
Bayesian Inference, likelihood-free, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Approximate Bayesian Computations, Synthetic likelihood, Epidemiology, disease modeling
National Category
Other Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-326607OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-326607DiVA, id: diva2:1127474
Educational program
Master Programme in Engineering Physics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-08-18 Created: 2017-07-15 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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Language
  • de-DE
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