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History is written by the victors: The effect of the push of the past on the fossil record
Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Geovetenskapliga sektionen, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, Paleobiologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-9007-4369
Univ Leeds, Sch Math, Dept Stat, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-0701-1274
2018 (Engelska)Ingår i: Evolution, ISSN 0014-3820, E-ISSN 1558-5646, Vol. 72, nr 11, s. 2276-2291Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Survivorship biases can generate remarkable apparent rate heterogeneities through time in otherwise homogeneous birth-death models of phylogenies. They are a potential explanation for many striking patterns seen in the fossil record and molecular phylogenies. One such bias is the "push of the past": clades that survived a substantial length of time are likely to have experienced a high rate of early diversification. This creates the illusion of a secular rate slow-down through time that is, rather, a reversion to the mean. An extra effect increasing early rates of lineage generation is also seen in large clades. These biases are important but relatively neglected influences on many aspects of diversification patterns in the fossil record and elsewhere, such as diversification spikes after mass extinctions and at the origins of clades; they also influence rates of fossilization, changes in rates of phenotypic evolution and even molecular clocks. These inevitable features of surviving and/or large clades should thus not be generalized to the diversification process as a whole without additional study of small and extinct clades, and raise questions about many of the traditional explanations of the patterns seen in the fossil record.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
WILEY , 2018. Vol. 72, nr 11, s. 2276-2291
Nyckelord [en]
Crown groups, diversification rates, mass extinctions, molecular clocks, push of the past, survivorship bias
Nationell ämneskategori
Evolutionsbiologi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-371092DOI: 10.1111/evo.13593ISI: 000449670700001PubMedID: 30257040OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-371092DiVA, id: diva2:1272713
Forskningsfinansiär
VetenskapsrådetTillgänglig från: 2018-12-19 Skapad: 2018-12-19 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-01-07Bibliografiskt granskad

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