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Introducing an Agenda-based Measurement of Mediation Success: The Divergent Effects of the Manipulation Strategy in African Civil Wars
Swiss Fed Inst Technol, CSS, Haldeneggsteig 4, CH-8006 Zurich, Switzerland.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
2019 (English)In: International Negotiation, ISSN 1382-340X, E-ISSN 1571-8069, Vol. 24, no 2, p. 296-323Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Previous quantitative mediation research has relied on generalized measurements of "mediation success," such as agreements, ceasefires or peace durability. However, these measurements of success do not take into account what mediators were mandated to achieve. We propose benchmarking outcomes against the explicit mandates of the interventions, a novel way of conceptualizing mediation success. Utilizing data on the agendas of mediated negotiations in intrastate armed conflicts in Africa between 1990 and 2010 as a proxy for mediation mandates, we examine the relative effectiveness of manipulation as a mediation strategy. The study shows, in contrast to previous research, that third party manipulation does not have a significant effect on whether the goal of a given round of negotiations is achieved and, that under some circumstances, may decrease the likelihood of mediation success. We discuss the opportunities as well as limitations of a mandate-based approach to the study of mediation success.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Brill Academic Publishers, 2019. Vol. 24, no 2, p. 296-323
Keywords [en]
mediation, mandate, mediation success, mediation strategy, civil war, Africa
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-387562DOI: 10.1163/15718069-24011175ISI: 000469416000005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-387562DiVA, id: diva2:1330003
Available from: 2019-06-25 Created: 2019-06-25 Last updated: 2019-06-25Bibliographically approved

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Svensson, Isak

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