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Application of the Bayesian framework for forensic interpretation to casework involving postmortem interval estimates of decomposed human remains
Natl Vet Inst, Dept Chem Environm & Feed Hyg, SE-75189 Uppsala, Sweden.
Uppsala universitet, Medicinska och farmaceutiska vetenskapsområdet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för kirurgiska vetenskaper, Rättsmedicin. Natl Board Forens Med, Dept Forens Med, Box 1024, SE-75140 Uppsala, Sweden.
Uppsala universitet, Medicinska och farmaceutiska vetenskapsområdet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för kirurgiska vetenskaper, Rättsmedicin. Natl Board Forens Med, Dept Forens Med, Box 1024, SE-75140 Uppsala, Sweden.
Chalmers Univ Technol, Math Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden;Univ Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-2569-6070
2019 (engelsk)Inngår i: Forensic Science International, ISSN 0379-0738, E-ISSN 1872-6283, Vol. 301, s. 402-414Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

We demonstrate how the Bayesian framework for forensic interpretation can be adapted for casework involving postmortem intervals (PMI) utilizing taphonomic data as well as how to overcome some of the limitations of current approaches for estimating and communicating uncertainty. A model is implemented for indoor cases based on partial body scores from three different anatomical regions as correlated functions of accumulated temperature (AT). The multivariate model enables estimation of PMI for human remains also when one or two local body scores are missing or undetermined, e.g. as a result of burns, scars or covered body parts. The model was trained using the expectation maximization algorithm, enabling us to account for uncertainty of PMI and/or ambient temperature in the training data. Alternative approaches reporting the results are presented, including the likelihood curve, likelihood ratios for competing hypotheses and posterior probability distributions and credibility intervals for PMI. The applicability or the approaches in different forensic scenarios is discussed.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD , 2019. Vol. 301, s. 402-414
Emneord [en]
Postmortem interval, Bayesian, Forensic taphonomy, Value of evidence, Forensic statistics
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-390510DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2019.05.050ISI: 000473261300056PubMedID: 31234111OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-390510DiVA, id: diva2:1341850
Forskningsfinansiär
Swedish Research Council, 2012-05994Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-08-12 Laget: 2019-08-12 Sist oppdatert: 2019-08-12bibliografisk kontrollert

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