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A new dynamical systems perspective on atmospheric predictability: Eastern Mediterranean weather regimes as a case study
Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geophys, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel;Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geog & Human Environm, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel;Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Porter Sch Environm Studies, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel.
Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geophys, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel.
Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geophys, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel;Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geog & Human Environm, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel.
Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geophys, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel;Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Porter Sch Environm Studies, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel.
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2019 (English)In: Science Advances, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 5, no 6, article id eaau0936Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The atmosphere is a chaotic system displaying recurrent large-scale configurations. Recent developments in dynamical systems theory allow us to describe these configurations in terms of the local dimension-a proxy for the active number of degrees of freedom-and persistence in phase space, which can be interpreted as persistence in time. These properties provide information on the intrinsic predictability of an atmospheric state. Here, this technique is applied to atmospheric configurations in the eastern Mediterranean, grouped into synoptic classifications (SCs). It is shown that local dimension and persistence, derived from reanalysis and CMIP5 models' daily sea-level pressure fields, can serve as an extremely informative qualitative method for evaluating the predictability of the different SCs. These metrics, combined with the SC transitional probability approach, may be a valuable complement to operational weather forecasts and effective tools for climate model evaluation. This new perspective can be extended to other geographical regions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE , 2019. Vol. 5, no 6, article id eaau0936
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Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Climate Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-390649DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau0936ISI: 000473798500004PubMedID: 31183396OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-390649DiVA, id: diva2:1342402
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Swedish Research Council, 2016-03724Available from: 2019-08-13 Created: 2019-08-13 Last updated: 2019-08-13Bibliographically approved

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Messori, Gabriele

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