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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Sweden
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics. (Seismologi)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6337-7839
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0789-5949
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7251-0059
(English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
Abstract [en]

Assessing seismic hazard in stable continental regions (SCR) such as Sweden poses unique challenges compared to active seismic regions. With diffuse seismicity, low seismicity rate, few large magnitude earthquakes and little strong motion data, estimating recurrence parameters and determining appropriate attenuation relationships is challenging. This study presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Sweden based on a recent earthquake catalogue which includes a large number of events with magnitudes ranging from 5.9 to -1.4, enabling recurrence parameters to be calculated for more source areas than in previous studies, and with less uncertainty. Recent ground motion models developed specifically for stable continental regions, including Fennoscandia, are used in logic trees accounting for their uncertainty and the hazard is calculated using the OpenQuake engine.The results are presented in the form of mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps at 475 and 2500 year return periods and hazard curves for four seismically active areas in Sweden. We find the highest hazard in the northernmost part of the country, in the post-glacial fault province. This is in contrast to previous studies, which have not considered the high seismic activity on the post-glacial faults. We also find relatively high hazard along the northeast coast and in southwestern Sweden, whereas the southeast and the mountain region to the northwest have low hazard.For a 475 year return period we estimate the highest PGAs to be 0.04-0.05g, in the far north, and for a 2500 year return period it is 0.1-0.15g in the same area. Significant uncertainties remain to be addressed in regards to the SCR seismicity in Sweden, including the homogenization of small local magnitudes with large moment magnitudes, the occurrence of large events in areas with little prior seismicity and the uncertainties surrounding the potential for large earthquakes on the post-glacial faults in northern Fennoscandia.

National Category
Geophysics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-517256OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-517256DiVA, id: diva2:1817356
Available from: 2023-12-06 Created: 2023-12-06 Last updated: 2023-12-06
In thesis
1. Bias-adjusted analysis of global natural disaster records and an assessment of seismic hazard in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bias-adjusted analysis of global natural disaster records and an assessment of seismic hazard in Sweden
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Natural disasters pose significant challenges today and demand efficient allocation of society’s limited resources for disaster risk reduction. This relies on analysis of natural disaster records, which are prone to (reporting) biases that can affect the inferences drawn from their analysis. Data incompleteness is common in earthquake seismology, and, with a starting point in the Gutenberg-Richter law, this thesis studies the power-law behaviour between fatalities and the frequency of global natural disasters recorded by EM-DAT from 1900 to 2020. 

Analysing, first, the power-law behaviour of global earthquake frequency and magnitude reveals overlapping patterns, and apparent improved reporting completeness over the studied periods, implying any increase in recorded earthquakes is a reporting artefact. Similarly, “frequency-magnitude” analysis of earthquake disasters shows power-law behaviour and an almost-unchanged distribution of fatalities over time, which also implies improved reporting. Similar analysis of hydro-meteorological disasters in EM-DAT shows their substantially increased number with time to be a reporting artefact driven by improved reporting of low-fatality disasters. The increasing gradient of the power-law part of the frequency-magnitude graphs implies that the worst events have become less fatal on average.  

Climate-related disaster risk reduction actions have thus been very successful, resulting in a continuous decline in aggregate associated fatalities, to the extent that earthquakes have been the most fatal natural disasters over the last few decades.  Notably, while the earthquake magnitude distribution is dominated by earthquakes in high-seismicity zones, fatalities predominantly occur in low-seismicity intraplate regions. This implies that seismic hazard in Sweden, an intraplate area, may be significant, especially as earthquakes as large as M8 have occurred in its recent deglaciation phase. Hazard analysis based on data from the recently expanded Swedish seismic network clearly unveils significant hazard posed by Post-Glacial faults in the North. 

This research advances our understanding of natural disaster dynamics, emphasizing the necessity for non-conventional methodologies to analyze historical data. It offers important insights to help form effective disaster risk reduction strategies, particularly in the context of seismic hazard assessment for specific regions like Sweden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2024. p. 73
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2347
Keywords
Power-law, Natural-disasters, Seismic-hazard assessment.
National Category
Geophysics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-517257 (URN)978-91-513-1985-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-03-01, Hambergsalen, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2024-02-07 Created: 2023-12-06 Last updated: 2024-02-07

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Lund, BjörnRoberts, Roland

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