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The cognitive substrate of subjective probability.
Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
2005 (English)In: Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, ISSN 0278-7393, Vol. 31, no 4, 600-20 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The prominent cognitive theories of probability judgment were primarily developed to explain cognitive biases rather than to account for the cognitive processes in probability judgment. In this article the authors compare 3 major theories of the processes and representations in probability judgment: the representativeness heuristic, implemented as prototype similarity, relative likelihood, or evidential support accumulation (ESAM; D. J. Koehler, C. M. White, & R. Grondin, 2003); cue-based relative frequency; and exemplar memory, implemented by probabilities from exemplars (PROBEX; P. Juslin & M. Persson, 2002). Three experiments with different task structures consistently demonstrate that exemplar memory is the best account of the data whereas the results are inconsistent with extant formulations of the representativeness heuristic and cue-based relative frequency.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2005. Vol. 31, no 4, 600-20 p.
Keyword [en]
subjective probability judgment, multiple-cue learning, exemplar memory, representativeness heuristic, cue-based relative frequency
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-73985PubMedID: 16060768OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-73985DiVA: diva2:101896
Available from: 2005-08-17 Created: 2005-08-17 Last updated: 2011-01-11

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Nilsson, HåkanOlsson, HenrikJuslin, Peter

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