Copula correlation modeling of aggregate solar irradiance in spatial networks
2016 (English)In: Proceedings of the 6th lnternational Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems, Wien, 2016Conference paper (Refereed)
Estimating solar irradiance over several locations in a spatial network is of interest for a wide variety of applications, in particular for simulations of distribution grid with high photovoltaic (PV) penetration. This paper presents a method for estimating the clear-sky index for N locations in any spatial network of locations. The model is based on the clear-sky index distribution for one location, and the cross-correlation of clear-sky index between all location pairs. The correlated clear-sky index for each location is obtained from a copula model of correlation based on the station pair correlations and the clear-sky index for a single location. In this paper the clear-sky index for a single location is obtained by a bimodal mixture distribution model and the correlation between station pairs is modeled via an exponential model. The model bridges the gap between estimating the clear-sky index for adjacent and maximally dispersed locations. Applications of this model to simulations of aggregate photovoltaic power generation is also discussed.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-307663OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-307663DiVA: diva2:1047684
6th Solar Integration Workshop (International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power System), 14 - 15 November 2016, Vienna, Austria