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Copula correlation modeling of aggregate solar irradiance in spatial networks
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics. (Built Environment Energy Systems Group)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics. (BEESG)
2016 (English)In: Proceedings of the 6th lnternational Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems, Wien, 2016Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Estimating solar irradiance over several locations in a spatial network is of interest for a wide variety of applications, in particular for simulations of distribution grid with high photovoltaic (PV) penetration. This paper presents a method for estimating the clear-sky index for N locations in any spatial network of locations. The model is based on the clear-sky index distribution for one location, and the cross-correlation of clear-sky index between all location pairs. The correlated clear-sky index for each location is obtained from a copula model of correlation based on the station pair correlations and the clear-sky index for a single location. In this paper the clear-sky index for a single location is obtained by a bimodal mixture distribution model and the correlation between station pairs is modeled via an exponential model. The model bridges the gap between estimating the clear-sky index for adjacent and maximally dispersed locations. Applications of this model to simulations of aggregate photovoltaic power generation is also discussed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Wien, 2016.
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-307663OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-307663DiVA: diva2:1047684
Conference
6th Solar Integration Workshop (International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power System), 14 - 15 November 2016, Vienna, Austria
Available from: 2016-11-18 Created: 2016-11-18 Last updated: 2017-01-17

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