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Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Res Inst Oslo, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Res Inst Oslo, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway..
Peace Res Inst Oslo, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway.;Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Sociol & Polit Sci, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway..
2016 (English)In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 113, no 44, 12391-12396 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989-2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups' livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 113, no 44, 12391-12396 p.
Keyword [en]
armed conflict, climate variability, drought, ethnicity, georeferenced event data
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-308910DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1607542113ISI: 000386608200038PubMedID: 27791091OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-308910DiVA: diva2:1051225
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation AgencyEU, European Research Council, 648291
Available from: 2016-12-01 Created: 2016-12-01 Last updated: 2016-12-01Bibliographically approved

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von Uexkull, NinaCroicu, MihaiFjelde, Hanne
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