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Range shifts or extinction?: Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds
Swedish Museum Nat Hist, Dept Bioinformat & Genet, Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Zool, Stockholm, Sweden..
Swedish Museum Nat Hist, Dept Bioinformat & Genet, Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Zool, Stockholm, Sweden.;Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Complejidad, Ciudad De Mexico, Mexico..
UiT Arctic Univ Norway, Dept Arctic & Marine Biol, Tromso, Norway..
SD Inc, Mammoth Site Hot Springs, Hot Springs, NC USA..
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2017 (English)In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 23, no 4, 1425-1435 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WILEY-BLACKWELL , 2017. Vol. 23, no 4, 1425-1435 p.
Keyword [en]
approximate Bayesian computation, climate change, colonization, extinction, Lagopus, palaeogenetics, phylogeography, Pleistocene, species distribution modelling
National Category
Evolutionary Biology Ecology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-319525DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13522ISI: 000396836800006PubMedID: 27762483OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-319525DiVA: diva2:1087289
Funder
Swedish Research Council FormasSwedish Research Council
Available from: 2017-04-06 Created: 2017-04-06 Last updated: 2017-04-06Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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