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Introduction: Forecasting in peace research
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. PRIO, Oslo, Norway..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5076-0994
UCL, Dept Polit Sci, London WC1E 6BT, England..
PRIO, Oslo, Norway..
Hertie Sch Governance, Berlin, Germany..
2017 (English)In: Journal of Peace Research, ISSN 0022-3433, E-ISSN 1460-3578, Vol. 54, no 2, 113-124 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized data, and predictions more generally as the assignment of probability distributions to realized or unrealized outcomes. Increasingly, scholars present within-and out-of-sample prediction results in their publications and sometimes even forecasts for unrealized, future outcomes. The articles in this special issue demonstrate the ability of current approaches to forecast events of interest and contributes to the formulation of best practices for forecasting within peace research. We highlight the role of forecasting for theory evaluation and as a bridge between academics and policymakers, summarize the contributions in the special issue, and provide some thoughts on how research on forecasting in peace research should proceed. We suggest some best practices, noting the importance of theory development, interpretability of models, replicability of results, and data collection.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2017. Vol. 54, no 2, 113-124 p.
Keyword [en]
forecasting, out of sample evaluation, peace research, prediction, theory testing
National Category
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-320280DOI: 10.1177/0022343317691330ISI: 000398128000001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-320280DiVA: diva2:1092000
Available from: 2017-04-28 Created: 2017-04-28 Last updated: 2017-04-28Bibliographically approved

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