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The Talks Before the Talks: Effects of Pre-Negotiation on Reaching Peace Agreements in Intra-State Armed Conflict
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Pre-negotiation is widely accepted as a means to convince intra-state conflict parties to negotiate formally; however, research has not yet established a causal link between early efforts to bring warring parties together and the outcome of any negotiated settlement. This gap begs the question: To what extent do activities during the pre-negotiation phase contribute to the signing of a peace agreement? Theory on inter-state conflict suggests that pre-negotiation reduces risk, thereby convincing conflict parties that they have more to gain from negotiating than from fighting. However, in conflicts between governments and non-state armed actors, this study argues that reciprocity, rather, paves the way for peace agreements to take hold. This study introduces a new dataset on pre-negotiation within the context of intra-state armed conflict from 2005 to 2015 that is built upon the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and reduces the selection effects that often plague studies of peace processes. In contrast to existing qualitative research, this study finds little evidence that pre-negotiation increases the likelihood that conflict dyads sign peace agreements. A closer look suggests that a quantitative approach to this topic requires increased nuance of the conditions under which conflict parties shift from unilateral to iterated, joint decision-making. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , 62 p.
Keyword [en]
pre-negotiation, peace agreement, intra-state conflict, civil war
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-325234OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-325234DiVA: diva2:1113598
Subject / course
Peace and Conflict Studies
Educational program
Master Programme in Peace and Conflict Studies
Supervisors
Available from: 2017-06-22 Created: 2017-06-22 Last updated: 2017-06-22Bibliographically approved

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  • apa
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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