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Audience Costs in the Mediation of Intrastate Conflict: An Analysis of State and Non-State Mediation, 1945 - 2014
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Existing theories on the influence of a state mediator’s political regime on mediation share the expectation that democracies will outperform autocracies in this regard. However these theories have rarely been applied to mediation in intrastate conflict. This thesis addresses this theoretical and empirical gap. The central argument presented in this thesis – grounded in bargaining theory – is that democratic states face high domestic audience costs, which makes them more credible and effective mediators. A logistic regression analysis of 674 cases of mediation in intrastate conflicts between 1945 and 2014, however, shows that democratic mediators are not significantly more effective than autocratic or non-state mediators. In fact, only international organizations are shown to be significantly more successful mediators than other types. The effect of audience costs on mediation success is therefore not as clear-cut in intrastate conflict as it is in interstate conflict. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , 49 p.
Keyword [en]
mediation, democracy, political regime, bargaining theory, audience costs
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-325290OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-325290DiVA: diva2:1114050
Subject / course
Peace and Conflict Studies
Educational program
Master Programme in Peace and Conflict Studies
Supervisors
Available from: 2017-06-22 Created: 2017-06-22 Last updated: 2017-06-22Bibliographically approved

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