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Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example
IVL Swedish Environm Res Inst, Stockholm, Sweden.;Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol, Avon, England.;Ctr Nat Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Ctr Nat Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8180-4996
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England..
Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England..
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2017 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 11, 1705-1713 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis.Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources - and different perceptions thereof - explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
T , 2017. Vol. 62, no 11, 1705-1713 p.
Keyword [en]
Uncertainty, socio-hydrology, perceptual model, flood risk, change analysis
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-333621DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2017.1356926ISI: 000407513700001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-333621DiVA: diva2:1157684
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 942-2015-321EU, FP7, Seventh Framework Programme, 329762NERC - the Natural Environment Research Council, NE/L010399/1
Available from: 2017-11-16 Created: 2017-11-16 Last updated: 2017-11-16Bibliographically approved

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Di Baldassarre, GiulianoBeven, Keith J.

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