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Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss
Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Lab Hydraul Hydrol & Glaciol VAW, Zurich, Switzerland.;Univ Fribourg, Dept Geosci, Fribourg, Switzerland..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Geophys, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA.
2018 (English)In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 8, no 2, p. 135-140Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources(1-4), but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce(5,6). Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum ('peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP , 2018. Vol. 8, no 2, p. 135-140
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-345721DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0049-xISI: 000423842400015OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-345721DiVA, id: diva2:1190216
Available from: 2018-03-14 Created: 2018-03-14 Last updated: 2018-03-14Bibliographically approved

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