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Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes
Univ Tehran, Inst Geophys, Tehran, Iran.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Geophysics. Univ Tehran, Inst Geophys, Tehran, Iran.
RIPI, Tehran, Iran.
2018 (English)In: Pure and Applied Geophysics, ISSN 0033-4553, E-ISSN 1420-9136, Vol. 175, no 4, p. 1325-1340Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M-w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M-w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M-w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 175, no 4, p. 1325-1340
Keywords [en]
Tsunami hazard, western Makran subduction zone, scaled slip distributions, heterogeneity, numerical modeling
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354243DOI: 10.1007/s00024-018-1842-9ISI: 000430976700006OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-354243DiVA, id: diva2:1220967
Conference
26th IAG General Assembly of the International-Union-of-Geodesy-and-Geophysics (IUGG) on Earth and Environmental Sciences for Future Generations, JUN 22-JUL 02, 2015, Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC
Available from: 2018-06-19 Created: 2018-06-19 Last updated: 2018-06-19Bibliographically approved

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Shomali, Zaher Hossein

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