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Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6410-1551
Peace Research Institute, Oslo, Norway.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Peace Research Institute Oslo.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5076-0994
2019 (English)In: Journal of Politics, ISSN 0022-3816, E-ISSN 1468-2508, Vol. 81, no 1, p. 215-232Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Several studies show a beneficial effect of peacekeeping operations (PKOs). However, by looking at individual effect pathways (intensity, duration, recurrence, diffusion) in isolation, they underestimate the peacekeeping impact of PKOs. We propose a novel method of evaluating the combined impact across all pathways based on a statistical model of the efficacy of UN PKOs in preventing the onset, escalation, continuation, and recurrence of internal armed conflict. We run a set of simulations based on the statistical estimates to assess the impact of alternative UN policies for the 2001-13 period. If the UN had invested US$200 billion in PKOs with strong mandates, major armed conflict would have been reduced by up to two-thirds relative to a scenario without PKOs and 150,000 lives would have been saved over the 13-year period compared to a no-PKO scenario. UN peacekeeping is clearly a cost-effective way of increasing global security.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 81, no 1, p. 215-232
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354690DOI: 10.1086/700203ISI: 000455040500020OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-354690DiVA, id: diva2:1222269
Part of project
ViEWS: a political Violence Early Warning System
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 694640Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2014.0162Available from: 2018-06-21 Created: 2018-06-21 Last updated: 2020-02-24Bibliographically approved

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Hultman, LisaHegre, Håvard

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