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A review of the main drivers and variability of Central America's Climate and seasonal forecast systems
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Costa Rica, Ctr Invest Geofis, San Jose 2060, Costa Rica.
Univ Costa Rica, Ctr Invest Geofis, San Jose 2060, Costa Rica;Univ Costa Rica, Ctr Invest Ciencias Mar & Limnol, San Jose 2060, Costa Rica;Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Fis, San Jose 2060, Costa Rica.
Univ Costa Rica, Ctr Invest Geofis, San Jose 2060, Costa Rica;Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Fis, San Jose 2060, Costa Rica.
2018 (English)In: Revista de biologia tropical, ISSN 0034-7744, E-ISSN 2215-2075, Vol. 66, p. S153-S175Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Central America is a region susceptible to natural disasters and climate change. We reviewed the literature on the main atmospheric and oceanographic forces and climate modulators affecting Central America, for different spatial and time scales. We also reviewed the reported correlation between climate variability, natural hazards and climate change aspects (in the past and future). In addition, we examined the current state of seasonal prediction systems being applied to the region. At inter-annual scales, El Nino/Southern Oscillation is the main climate modulator; however, other indices such as the Tropical North Atlantic, Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have shown a correlation with precipitation anomalies in the region. Current seasonal forecast systems in the region have shown a constant development, including incorporation of different approaches ranging from statistical to dynamical downscaling, improving prediction of variables such as precipitation. Many studies have revealed the need of including -in addition to the climatic information-socio-economic variables to assess the impact of natural disasters and climate change in the region. These studies highlight the importance of socio-economic and human life losses associated with the impacts caused by natural hazards for organizations and governments.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Universidad de Costa Rica , 2018. Vol. 66, p. S153-S175
Keywords [en]
Natural threats, seasonal climate prediction, climate variability, climate change
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-366686DOI: 10.15517/RBT.V66I1.33294ISI: 000439025700011OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-366686DiVA, id: diva2:1265418
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation AgencyAvailable from: 2018-11-23 Created: 2018-11-23 Last updated: 2018-11-23Bibliographically approved

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