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Behavioral responses to the implementation of the ROT-reform
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The potential presence of anticipation effects is reasonable to account for when evaluating the effects of a policy if individuals are considered forward looking, there is an awareness among the population of the upcoming reform and a benefit of acting. Individuals anticipate an upcoming tax increase by substituting consumption intertemporally, causing an increase in the consumption prior to implementation. The reform of lowering the tax deduction provided those purchasing ROT-services was announced end of March 2015 and implemented 1:st of January 2016. The estimated savings were 5.6 billion SEK. It is however, unclear whether potential anticipation effects were accounted for. Not accounting for anticipation effects could risk overestimating the savings, due to increased consumption prior to implementation. The aim of the thesis is to estimate potential anticipation effects to the reform. This is done by graphically analysing the use of the ROT-services, investigating the news coverage coinciding with the announcement, and the Google search frequency. Additionally, a regression is being performed to estimate the use of the services during the periods surrounding the implementation. The results suggest an increased interest in ROT-services coinciding with the announcement of the reform. The results, furthermore, indicate an increase in consumption during the period between announcement and implementation, which is even more pronounced the last month prior to implementation. The potential presence of anticipation effects, hence, could have been reasonable to account for in estimating the savings of the reform.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 40
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-392715OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-392715DiVA, id: diva2:1349374
Subject / course
Economics
Educational program
Master Programme in Economics
Supervisors
Available from: 2019-09-09 Created: 2019-09-09 Last updated: 2019-09-09Bibliographically approved

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