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Practical causal analysis for the treatment timing effect on doubly censored duration: effect of fertility on work span
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies)
Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation. Inst Labor Econ, Bonn, Germany. (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies)ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6140-9123
Korea Univ, Seoul, South Korea.
2019 (English)In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), ISSN 0964-1998, E-ISSN 1467-985X, Vol. 182, no 4, p. 1561-1585Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a practical causal framework to estimate the effects of a treatment and its timing on a doubly censored response. We then apply the methodology to find the effect of fertility on work duration where, not just fertility itself, but the timing of fertility should matter greatly. Since fertility and its decision of timing are chosen by the individual, it is likely to be endogenous. We use a populationwide data set over mothers with two children to address the endogeneity issue by using the first two children's same-sex instrument in a 'control function' setting. We find that having a third child reduces the average labour market work duration, and that the magnitude of the effect increases monotonically with the waiting time between the second and third children. Moreover, the negative effect varies substantially over education and second-birth age, being stronger for mothers with higher education and lower second-birth age.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WILEY , 2019. Vol. 182, no 4, p. 1561-1585
Keywords [en]
Doubly censored response, Fertility, Labour supply, Treatment timing
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-396960DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12474ISI: 000492420800021OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-396960DiVA, id: diva2:1369776
Available from: 2019-11-13 Created: 2019-11-13 Last updated: 2019-11-13Bibliographically approved

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Angelov, NikolayJohansson, Per

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