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Monte Carlo seismic hazard maps for northern Central America, covering El Salvador and surrounding area
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
2004 (English)In: Geological Society of America, Special Paper, ISSN 0072-1077, Vol. 375, 423-433 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A Monte Carlo approach is utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. In this approach, the seismic source boundary location is only considered to construct different earthquake catalogs. For each catalog, a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to generate numerous synthetic catalogs that have the same properties as the observed catalog but with random occurrences of earthquakes following the Poisson model and with epicentral locations randomly determined from the observed catalog. Selecting models to describe seismic source zones and earthquake recurrence is not required since such considerations are implicit in the synthetic earthquake catalogs. Thus, uncertainties related to gathering and manipulating the appropriate data for seismic hazard parameters and source zone boundaries are not propagated through the analysis into the hazard result. The characteristic earthquake recurrence model is used to describe the occurrence of large-magnitude events from the geological data. A set of new seismic hazard maps, exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr, is presented for a large area of northern Central America, including El Salvador and Guatemala. The hazard is highest in the coastal regions adjacent to the megathrust and the transcurrent fault zones. As a case history, disaggregation of seismic hazard is carried out for cities of San Salvador and Guatemala by using a spatial distribution of epicenters around these sites to select design ground motion for seismic risk decisions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2004. Vol. 375, 423-433 p.
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-90704DOI: 10.1130/0-8137-2375-2.423OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-90704DiVA: diva2:163155
Available from: 2003-09-01 Created: 2003-09-01 Last updated: 2017-12-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Prediction of Strong Ground Motion and Hazard Uncertainties
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Prediction of Strong Ground Motion and Hazard Uncertainties
2003 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this thesis is to provide a detailed description of recent methods and scientific basis for characterizing earthquake sources within a certain region with distinct tectonic environments. The focus will be on those characteristics that are most significant to the ground-shaking hazard and on how we can incorporate our current knowledge into hazard analyses for engineering design purposes. I treat two particular geographical areas where I think current hazard analysis methods are in need of significant improvement, and suggest some approaches that have proven to be effective in past applications elsewhere. A combined hazard procedure is used to estimate seismicity in northern Central America, where there appear to be four tectonic environments for modeling the seismogenic sources and in Iran, where the large earthquakes usually occur on known faults. A preferred seismic hazard model for northern Central America and the western Caribbean plate based on earthquake catalogs, geodetic measurements, and geological information is presented. I used the widely practiced method of relating seismicity data to geological data to assess the various seismic hazard parameters and test parameter sensitivities.

The sensitivity and overall uncertainty in peak ground acceleration (PGA) estimates are calculated for northwestern Iran by using a specific randomized blocks design. A Monte Carlo approach is utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. A set of new seismic hazard maps, exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years, is presented for the area of relevance. Disaggregation of seismic hazard is carried out for cities of San Salvador and Guatemala by using a spatial distribution of epicenters around these sites to select design ground motion for seismic risk decisions.

In conclusion, consideration of the effect of parameters such as seismic moment, fault rupture, rupture directivity and stress drop are strongly recommended in estimating the near field ground motions. The rupture process of the 2002 Changureh earthquake (Mw = 6.5), Iran, was analyzed by using the empirical Green’s function (EGF) method. This method simulates strong ground motions for future large earthquakes at particular sites where no empirical data are available.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Universitetsbiblioteket, 2003. 27 p.
Series
Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1104-232X ; 872
Keyword
Geophysics, Disaggregation, Ground motion, Monte Carlo simulation, Seismic hazard, Geofysik
National Category
Geophysics
Research subject
Geophysics with specialization in Seismology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-3535 (URN)91-554-5702-9 (ISBN)
Public defence
2003-09-26, Axel Hamber-salen, Geocentrum, Uppsala, 10:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2003-09-01 Created: 2003-09-01 Last updated: 2016-05-13Bibliographically approved

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