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Monte Carlo seismic hazard maps for northern Central America, covering El Salvador and sorrounding area
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
2004 (English)In: Geological Society of America, Special Paper, ISSN 0072-1077, Vol. 375, 375-31 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A Monte Carlo approach is utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. In this approach, the seismic source boundary location is only considered to construct different earthquake catalogs. For each catalog, a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to generate numerous synthetic catalogs that have the same properties as the observed catalog but with random occurrences of earthquakes following the Poisson model and with epicentral locations randomly determined from the observed catalog. Selecting models to describe seismic source zones and earthquake recurrence is not required since such considerations are implicit in the synthetic earthquake catalogs. Thus, uncertainties related to gathering and manipulating the appropriate data for seismic hazard parameters and source zone boundaries are not propagated through the analysis into the hazard result. The characteristic earthquake recurrence model is used to describe the occurrence of large-magnitude events from the geological data. A set of new seismic hazard maps, exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr, is presented for a large area of northern Central America, including El Salvador and Guatemala. The hazard is highest in the coastal regions adjacent to the megathrust and the transcurrent fault zones. As a case history, disaggregation of seismic hazard is carried out for cities of San Salvador and Guatemala by using a spatial distribution of epicenters around these sites to select design ground motion for seismic risk decisions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2004. Vol. 375, 375-31 p.
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-90932DOI: 10.1130/0-8137-2375-2.423OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-90932DiVA: diva2:163455
Available from: 2003-09-30 Created: 2003-09-30 Last updated: 2013-05-16Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Statistical Seismology Studies in Central America: b-value, seismic hazard and seismic quiescence
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Statistical Seismology Studies in Central America: b-value, seismic hazard and seismic quiescence
2003 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[es]
Estudios de Sismología Estadística en Centroamérica : Valor b, amenaza sísmica y quietud sísmica
Abstract [en]

The present thesis collects results of research applying theory and methods of statistical seismology to the seismicity of Central America, a region with a complex tectonic setting controlled by the interaction of four major plates, namely the Caribbean, Cocos, Nazca and North American plates.

Three different earthquake catalogues were used for studies focused on stress in a tectonic volume, seismic hazard maps and seismicity patterns (precursors), covering the region 94ºW to 81ºW and 5ºN to 20ºN.

Variations in the b-value, the parameter in Gutenberg & Richter’s equation LogN=a-bM, as a function of depth in the subduction zone were investigated. High b-values were identified in the upper part of the slab at depths of 80-110km beneath Guatemala-El Salvador and at depths 130-170km beneath Nicaragua. These anomalies may be related to the generation of volcanism occurring above them. Time dependence of the b-value was also studied. Five case studies were selected (events with MS ≥7.2) for a detailed analysis. In three out of five cases, it was possible to link b-value minima to the time of occurrence of corresponding large events.

Seismic quiescence was mapped as a function of time and space by a griding technique. The characteristics of the quiescence were calculated using the statistics Z and ß and for Time Window lengths between 1 and 5 years. Five positive anomalies were found, which can be associated with large earthquakes (MS≥7.2).

Finally, a Monte Carlo approach was utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. A set of new seismic hazard maps exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years is presented for a large area of northern Central America, including El Salvador and Guatemala.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2003. 27 p.
Series
Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1104-232X ; 897
Keyword
Geophysics, b-value, seismic hazard, Monte Carlo, seismic quiescence, Central America, stress, Geofysik
National Category
Geophysics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-3613 (URN)91-554-5761-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2003-10-23, Axel Hamberg-salen, Geocentrum, Uppsala, 10:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2003-09-30 Created: 2003-09-30 Last updated: 2016-05-13Bibliographically approved

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