Monte Carlo seismic hazard maps for northern Central America, covering El Salvador and sorrounding area
2004 (English)In: Geological Society of America, Special Paper, ISSN 0072-1077, Vol. 375, 375-31 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
A Monte Carlo approach is utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. In this approach, the seismic source boundary location is only considered to construct different earthquake catalogs. For each catalog, a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to generate numerous synthetic catalogs that have the same properties as the observed catalog but with random occurrences of earthquakes following the Poisson model and with epicentral locations randomly determined from the observed catalog. Selecting models to describe seismic source zones and earthquake recurrence is not required since such considerations are implicit in the synthetic earthquake catalogs. Thus, uncertainties related to gathering and manipulating the appropriate data for seismic hazard parameters and source zone boundaries are not propagated through the analysis into the hazard result. The characteristic earthquake recurrence model is used to describe the occurrence of large-magnitude events from the geological data. A set of new seismic hazard maps, exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr, is presented for a large area of northern Central America, including El Salvador and Guatemala. The hazard is highest in the coastal regions adjacent to the megathrust and the transcurrent fault zones. As a case history, disaggregation of seismic hazard is carried out for cities of San Salvador and Guatemala by using a spatial distribution of epicenters around these sites to select design ground motion for seismic risk decisions.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2004. Vol. 375, 375-31 p.
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-90932DOI: 10.1130/0-8137-2375-2.423OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-90932DiVA: diva2:163455