Logo: to the web site of Uppsala University

Aims: In the UNITI endoscopy sub-study, only 17.4% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) on ustekinumab achieved endoscopic response and 10.9% of patients achieved endoscopic remission at week (w)44. We aimed to evaluate the impact of alternative ustekinumab dosage regimens on endoscopic outcomes based on population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (popPK-PD) modelling and simulation analysis.

Methods: Real-world data were obtained from 83 patients with moderate-to-severe CD (95% biological-refractory) enrolled in a prospective cohort study receiving intravenous ustekinumab (similar to 6 mg/kg) followed by every eight-week (q8w) subcutaneous maintenance therapy (90 mg). Three sequential models were developed: a two-compartment popPK model linking ustekinumab dose to ustekinumab exposure, an indirect response popPK-PD model describing the effect of ustekinumab exposure on fecal calprotectin (fCal), and a logistic regression outcome model linking fCal to endoscopic outcomes.

Results: Ustekinumab clearance increased with decreasing serum albumin and increasing bodyweight. fCal decreased with increasing ustekinumab exposure. The probability of endoscopic response at w24 increased from 10.0% to 17.9% with fCal at w8 decreasing from 1800 mu g/g to 694 mu g/g (EC50). The probability of endoscopic remission at w24 increased from 2.1% to 10.0% with fCal at w8 decreasing from 1800 mu g/g to 214 mu g/g (EC50). Simulation-based comparison of q8w and q4w maintenance dosing regimens predicted 16.7% and 22.2% endoscopic response rates, respectively. Endoscopic remission rates were estimated to be 4.2% on q8w dosing and 6.7% on q4w dosing.

Conclusions: The developed models can guide clinical trial design and support model-informed dose optimization (stratified or individualized dosing) to improve endoscopic outcomes.