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How to detect a salami slicer: A stochastic controller-and-stopper game with unknown competition
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, Probability Theory and Combinatorics.
Stockholm Univ, Dept Math, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
Umeå Univ, Dept Math & Math Stat, S-90187 Umeå, Sweden..
2022 (English)In: SIAM Journal of Control and Optimization, ISSN 0363-0129, E-ISSN 1095-7138, Vol. 60, no 1, p. 545-574Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We consider a stochastic game of control and stopping specified in terms of a process X-t = -theta Lambda(t)+W-t, representing the holdings of Player 1, where W is a Brownian motion, theta is a Bernoulli random variable indicating whether Player 2 is active or not, and Lambda is a nondecreasing continuous process representing the accumulated "theft" or "fraud" performed by Player 2 (if active) against Player 1. Player 1 cannot observe theta or Lambda directly but can merely observe the path of the process X and may choose a stopping rule tau to deactivate Player 2 at a cost M. Player 1 thus does not know if she is the victim of fraud or not and operates in this sense under unknown competition. Player 2 can observe both theta and W and seeks to choose a fraud strategy Lambda that maximizes the expected discounted amount E [integral(tau)(0) e(-rs)d Lambda(s)vertical bar theta = 1], whereas Player 1 seeks to choose the stopping strategy tau so as to minimize the expected discounted cost E[theta integral(tau)(0) e(-rs)d Lambda(s) + e(-rr)MI({tau, infinity})]. This non-zero-sum game belongs to a class of stochastic dynamic games with unknown competition and continuous controls and is motivated by applications in fraud detection; it combines filtering (detection), stochastic control, optimal stopping, strategic features (games), and asymmetric information. We derive Nash equilibria for this game; for some parameter values we find an equilibrium in pure strategies, and for other parameter values we find an equilibrium by allowing for randomized stopping strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Society for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (SIAM) , 2022. Vol. 60, no 1, p. 545-574
Keywords [en]
stochastic game theory, stochastic optimal control, fraud detection, optimal stopping
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-474706DOI: 10.1137/21M139044XISI: 000790264000002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-474706DiVA, id: diva2:1659987
Available from: 2022-05-23 Created: 2022-05-23 Last updated: 2022-05-23Bibliographically approved

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Ekström, Erik

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