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The Economic Costs of Civil War
Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-94638OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-94638DiVA: diva2:168551
Available from: 2006-05-17 Created: 2006-05-17Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Studies in conflict economics and economic growth
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Studies in conflict economics and economic growth
2006 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

“Armaments and Economic Performance”. The literature on military expenditure (milex) is scrutinized with respect to five areas. Investment is reduced when milex increases. Most studies have found economic growth hindered by higher milex. No clear association between milex and employment is found. However, the same amount of other public expenditure creates more jobs. There is some evidence for milex as counter-cyclical instrument in the US. The result for studies if milex is used in electoral cycles in the US is contradictory. Disaggregated data are emphasized as a possible solution to get more definite results.

“The Economic Costs of Civil Wars”. The empirical studies of the economic costs of internal armed conflicts are divided into accounting and modelling methods. Cost is seen as the difference between the counterfactual production without conflict and the actual production. The average economic cost of internal armed conflict is a 3.7% yearly reduction of GDP. There are large differences between the estimates. One of the reasons for pursuing such studies is to give improved basis for more cost-effective post-conflict reconstruction, which is better achieved with an accounting method.

“War and Economic Performance – Different Data, Different Conclusions?” This article studies the importance of armed conflict for economic growth by replicating an earlier analysis with new data on conflicts. The basic model investigates how conflicts in 1960-1974 affect economic growth in 1975-1989. Koubi finds that “wars are conducive to higher growth”. Koubi’s finding is confirmed when different conflict data is used in a similar research design.

“The Role of External Factors in Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Thailand and the Philippines 1950-1990”. Can differences in economic performance be explained by external factors? Both historical and regression analyses are utilised to answer the question. Three external factors are analysed: International trade, foreign direct investment, and external debt. In the regression analysis none of the external factors qualify as statistically significant. The historical analysis finds two external factors discriminating between the two countries. Thus, they might explain the differing growth rates of Thailand and the Philippines: Manufactured exports and external debt.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning, 2006. 17 p.
Report / Department of Peace and Conflict Research, ISSN 0566-8808 ; 72
Peace and conflict research, economic growth, economic costs of war, conflict, civil war, military expenditure, Thailand, Philippines, armed conflict, Freds- och konfliktforskning
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-6942 (URN)91-506-1878-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2006-06-07, Sal 1, Gamla Torget 3, Gamla Torget 3, Uppsala, 14:15
Available from: 2006-05-17 Created: 2006-05-17Bibliographically approved

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