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Equifinality and Flux Mapping: A New Approach to Model Evaluation and Process Representation Under Uncertainty
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1149-5080
Department of Infrastructure Engineering University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3255-3692
Department of Infrastructure Engineering University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1885-0826
Department of Infrastructure Engineering University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4982-146X
2019 (English)In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 55, no 11, p. 8922-8941Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Uncertainty analysis is an integral part of any scientific modeling, particularly within the domain of hydrological sciences given the various types and sources of uncertainty. At the center of uncertainty rests the concept of equifinality, that is, reaching a given endpoint (finality) through different pathways. The operational definition of equifinality in hydrological modeling is that various model structures and/or parameter sets (i.e., equal pathways) are equally capable of reproducing a similar (not necessarily identical) hydrological outcome (i.e., finality). Here we argue that there is more to model equifinality than model structures/parameters, that is, other model components can give rise to model equifinality and/or could be used to explore equifinality within model space. We identified six facets of model equifinality, namely, model structure, parameters, performance metrics, initial and boundary conditions, inputs, and internal fluxes. Focusing on model internal fluxes, we developed a methodology called flux mapping that has fundamental implications in understanding and evaluating model process representation within the paradigm of multiple working hypotheses. To illustrate this, we examine the equifinality of runoff fluxes of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model for a number of different Australian catchments. We demonstrate how flux maps can give new insights into the model behavior that cannot be captured by conventional model evaluation methods. We discuss the advantages of flux space, as a subspace of the model space not usually examined, over parameter space. We further discuss the utility of flux mapping in hypothesis generation and testing, extendable to any field of scientific modeling of open complex systems under uncertainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2019. Vol. 55, no 11, p. 8922-8941
Keywords [en]
equifinality, open complex systems, hydrological systems, uncertainty, scientific modeling and model evaluation, modeling philosophy
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Water Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-484140DOI: 10.1029/2018wr023750ISI: 000495830000001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-484140DiVA, id: diva2:1693743
Funder
Australian Research CouncilAvailable from: 2022-09-07 Created: 2022-09-07 Last updated: 2023-03-29Bibliographically approved

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Khatami, Sina

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Khatami, SinaPeel, Murray C.Peterson, Tim J.Western, Andrew W.
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