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Effects of Warmer World Scenarios on Hydrologic Inputs to Lake Mälaren, Sweden and Implications for Nutrient Loads
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Evolution, Limnology.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Evolution, Limnology.
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2008 (English)In: Hydrobiologia, ISSN 0018-8158, E-ISSN 1573-5117, Vol. 599, 191-199 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A simple, rapid, and flexible modelling approach was applied to explore the impacts of climate change on hydrologic inputs and consequent implications for nutrient loading to Lake Malaren, Sweden using a loading function model (GWLF). The first step in the process was to adapt the model for use in a large and complex Swedish catchment. We focused on the Galten basin with four rivers draining into the western region of Malaren. The catchment model was calibrated and tested using long-term historical data for river discharge and dissolved nutrients (N, P). Then multiple regional climate model simulation results were downscaled to the local catchment level, and used to simulate possible hydrological and nutrient loading responses to warmer world scenarios. Climate change projections for the rivers of Galten basin show profound changes in the timing of discharge and nutrient delivery due to increased winter precipitation and earlier snow melt. Impacts on total annual discharge and load are minimal, but the alteration in river flow regime and the timing of nutrient delivery for future climate scenarios is strikingly different from historical conditions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2008. Vol. 599, 191-199 p.
Keyword [en]
catchment modeling, hydrologic transport, nutrient loading, climate impact assessment
National Category
Biological Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-96263DOI: 10.1007/s10750-007-9197-8ISI: 000252890800024OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-96263DiVA: diva2:170779
Available from: 2007-10-04 Created: 2007-10-04 Last updated: 2017-12-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Climate Change Impacts on the Catchment Contribution to Lake Water Quantity and Quality
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Climate Change Impacts on the Catchment Contribution to Lake Water Quantity and Quality
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A key question related to climate change projections is how will aquatic systems respond to changes in variables such as temperature and precipitation? This thesis uses GWLF, a simple catchment scale model to explore potential impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality.

River discharge and nutrient loads were modelled for several warmer world scenarios. For one catchment in New York, USA changes in annual dissolved phosphorus loads decreased along with annual streamflow, and particulate phosphorus loads increased for a single future climate scenario. For the Galten catchment of Lake Mälaren, Sweden, the spring melt peak observed historically was reduced for six future scenarios. Peak runoff and dissolved phosphorus and nitrogen load maxima occurred in winter rather than early spring.

A synthesis of model results for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loadings for five European catchments showed changes in the timing and magnitude of peak DIN load for several future scenarios. In northern Europe, changes were largely due to increased winter streamflow and reduced snow pack and spring melt runoff. In western Europe, DIN loads increased in winter or early spring due to increased precipitation.

The biological response for a warmer future scenario was modelled for the Galten basin of Lake Mälaren using GWLF coupled to a lake phytoplankton model and a physical lake model. An increase in cyanobacteria biomass accompanied by a decline in diatom biomass resulted from changes in the timing of nutrient export from the catchment. The projected increase in lake temperature favored an overall increase in total phytoplankton biomass.

Lastly, a method based on hourly measurements of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence provides the appropriate data for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) model parameterization and may also be used for surveillance of organic matter inputs to lakes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2007. 35 p.
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 347
Keyword
Climate change, water quality modelling, Lake Mälaren, GWLF, nutrient transport
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-8236 (URN)978-91-554-6980-1 (ISBN)
Public defence
2007-10-25, Zootissalen, Evolutionsbiologistcentrum, Norbyvägen 18, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2007-10-04 Created: 2007-10-04 Last updated: 2016-04-28Bibliographically approved

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