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Labor Market Returns and the Evolution of Cognitive Skills: Theory and Evidence
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Stockholm University; Centre for Economic Policy Research, United Kingdom.
2022 (English)In: Quarterly Journal of Economics, ISSN 0033-5533, E-ISSN 1531-4650, Vol. 137, no 4, p. 2309-2361Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A large literature in cognitive science studies the puzzling "Flynn effect" of rising fluid intelligence (reasoning skill) in rich countries. We develop an economic model in which a cohort's mix of skills is determined by different skills' relative returns in the labor market and by the technology for producing skills. We estimate the model using administrative data from Sweden. Combining data from exams taken at military enlistment with earnings records from the tax register, we document an increase in the relative labor market return to logical reasoning skill as compared to vocabulary knowledge. The estimated model implies that changes in labor market returns explain 37% of the measured increase in reasoning skill, and can also explain the decline in knowledge. An original survey of parents, an analysis of trends in school curricula, and an analysis of occupational characteristics show evidence of increasing emphasis on reasoning as compared to knowledge.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2022. Vol. 137, no 4, p. 2309-2361
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-492546DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjac022ISI: 000818056100001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-492546DiVA, id: diva2:1724281
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2017-00628The Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation, P2015-0095:1Available from: 2023-01-05 Created: 2023-01-05 Last updated: 2024-09-02Bibliographically approved

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Seim, David

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