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The naive intuitive statistician: A naive sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
Department of Psychology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden .
2007 (English)In: Psychological review, ISSN 0033-295X, E-ISSN 1939-1471, Vol. 114, no 3, 678-703 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The perspective of the naïve intuitive statistician is outlined and applied to explain overconfidence when people produce intuitive confidence intervals and why this format leads to more overconfidence than other formally equivalent formats. The naïve sampling model implies that people accurately describe the sample information they have but are naïve in the sense that they uncritically take sample properties as estimates of population properties. A review demonstrates that the naïve sampling model accounts for the robust and important findings in previous research as well as provides novel predictions that are confirmed, including a way to minimize the overconfidence with interval production. The authors discuss the naïve sampling model as a representative of models inspired by the naïve intuitive statistician.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 114, no 3, 678-703 p.
Keyword [en]
subjective probability; calibration; confidence intervals; overconfidence; sampling model
National Category
Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-87204DOI: 10.1037/0033-295X.114.3.678ISI: 000247855400007PubMedID: 17638502OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-87204DiVA: diva2:25562
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2008-09-30 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved

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