The role of short-term memory capacity and task experience for overconfidence in judgment under uncertainty
2008 (English)In: Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory and Cognition, ISSN 0278-7393, E-ISSN 1939-1285, Vol. 34, no 5, 1027-1042 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from limited task experience or from short-term memory limitations. As predicted by the naive sampling model (P. Juslin, A. Winman, & P. Hansson, 2007), overconfidence with probability judgment is rapidly reduced by additional task experience, whereas overconfidence with intuitive confidence intervals is minimally affected even by extensive task experience. In contrast to the minor bias with probability judgment, the extreme overconfidence bias with intuitive confidence intervals is correlated with short-term memory capacity. The proposed interpretation is that increased task experience is not sufficient to cure the overconfidence with confidence intervals because it stems from short-term memory limitations.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2008. Vol. 34, no 5, 1027-1042 p.
subjective probability, confidence intervals, cognitive ability; individual differences
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-87202DOI: 10.1037/a0012638ISI: 000258907400002PubMedID: 18763889OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-87202DiVA: diva2:25565