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A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.
2007 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 35, no 3, 1931-1947 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash programme production, from Canada's oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006-2018 and 2006-2050. The implementation of a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today's dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada's obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada's oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash programme from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term crash programme results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 35, no 3, 1931-1947 p.
Keyword [en]
Oil sands, Canada, Peak oil
National Category
Physical Sciences
Research subject
Physics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112213DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.06.007ISI: 000244848800045OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-112213DiVA: diva2:285429
Available from: 2010-01-11 Created: 2010-01-11 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security
2010 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects total natural gas output in the EU to decrease from 216 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/year) in 2006 to 90 bcm/year in 2030. For the same period, EU demand for natural gas is forecast to increase rapidly. In 2006 demand for natural gas in the EU amounted to 532 bcm/year. By 2030, it is expected to reach 680 bcm/year. As a consequence, the widening gap between EU production and consumption requires a 90% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030. The main sources of imported gas for the EU are Russia and Norway. Between them they accounted for 62% of the EU’s gas imports in 2006. The objective of this thesis is to assess the potential future levels of gas supplies to the EU from its two main suppliers, Norway and Russia. Scenarios for future natural gas production potential for Norway and Russia have been modeled utilizing a bottom-up approach, building field-by-field, and individual modeling has been made for giant and semi- giant gas fields. In order to forecast the production profile for an individual giant natural gas field a Giant Gas Field Model (GGF-model) has been developed. The GGF-model has also been applied to production from an aggregate of fields, such as production from small fields and undiscovered resources.

Energy security in the EU is heavily dependent on gas supplies from a relatively small number of giant gas fields. In Norway almost all production originates from 18 fields of which 9 can be considered as giant fields. In Russia 36 giant fields account for essentially all gas production. There is limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU, and all of the scenarios investigated show Norwegian gas production in decline by 2030. Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU may even be, by 2030, 20 bcm/year lower than today’s level. The maximum increase in exports of Russian gas supplies to the EU amount to only 45% by 2030. In real numbers this means a mere increase of about 70 bcm In addition, there are a number of potential downside factors for future Russian gas supplies to the European markets. Consequently, a 90% increase of import volumes to the EU by 2030 will be impossible to achieve. From a European energy security perspective the dependence of pipeline gas imports is not the only energy security problem to be in the limelight, the question of physical availability of overall gas supplies deserves serious attention as well. There is a lively discussion regarding the geopolitical implications of European dependence on imported gas from Russia. However, the results of this thesis suggest that when assessing the future gas demand of the EU it would be of equal importance to be concerned about diminishing availability of global gas supplies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2010. 61 p.
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 705
Keyword
natural gas production, giant gas fields, depletion rate, forecasting, energy security, EU, Norway, Russia
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-112229 (URN)978-91-554-7698-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2010-02-19, Siegbahnsalen, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Uppsala, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2010-01-29 Created: 2010-01-12 Last updated: 2010-01-29Bibliographically approved

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Söderbergh, Bengt

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