From Armed Conflict to War: Ethnic Mobilization and Conflict Intensification
2009 (English)In: International Studies Quarterly, ISSN 0020-8833, E-ISSN 1468-2478, Vol. 53, no 2, 369-388 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
This paper presents a new line of inquiry into ethnicity and armed conflict, asking the question: are conflicts in which rebels mobilize along ethnic lines more likely to see intensified violence than non-ethnically mobilized conflicts? The paper argues that the ascriptive nature of ethnicity eases the identification of potential rebels and facilitates a rebel group’s growth, leading to an increased risk for war. This proposition is empirically tested using a Cox model on all intrastate armed conflicts 1946–2004; the results show that ethnically-mobilized armed conflicts have a 92% higher risk for intensification to war. In extending the analysis, the study finds that the vast majority of conflicts intensified in the first year, but for every year a low-scale conflict remained active thereafter, the risk of intensification increased, peaking around year twelve.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 53, no 2, 369-388 p.
civil war, civil conflict, ethnic conflict
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject Peace and Conflict Research
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-120217DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00538.xISI: 000266637600006OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-120217DiVA: diva2:302875