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Probability theory: Not the very guide of life
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology. (Cognition)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology. (cognition)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology. (cognition)
2009 (English)In: Psychological review, ISSN 0033-295X, E-ISSN 1939-1471, Vol. 116, no 4, 856-874 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Probability theory has long been taken as the self-evident norm against   which to evaluate inductive reasoning, and classical demonstrations of   violations of this norm include the conjunction error and base-rate   neglect. Many of these phenomena require multiplicative probability   integration, whereas people seem more inclined to linear additive   integration, in part, at least, because of well-known capacity   constraints on controlled thought. In this article, the authors show   with computer simulations that when based on approximate knowledge of   probabilities, as is routinely the case in natural environments, linear   additive integration can yield as accurate estimates, and as good   average decision returns, as estimates based on probability theory. It   is proposed that in natural environments people have little opportunity   or incentive to induce the normative rules of probability theory and,   given their cognitive constraints, linear additive integration may   often offer superior bounded rationality.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 116, no 4, 856-874 p.
Keyword [en]
probability judgment, representativeness heuristic, conjunction error, base-rate neglect, additive integration
National Category
Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-120885DOI: 10.1037/a0016979ISI: 000270774700006PubMedID: 19839686OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-120885DiVA: diva2:304095
Funder
Swedish Research CouncilRiksbankens Jubileumsfond
Available from: 2010-03-17 Created: 2010-03-17 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved

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Juslin, PeterNilsson, Håkan

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