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The presence of unemployment hysteresis in OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
2010 (English)In: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, no 3, 779-792 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates the relevance of unemployment hysteresis in seventeen OECD countries. We employ an out-of-sample forecast exercise in which a mean-reverting autoregressive model is compared to an autoregressive model with an imposed unit root. A substantial difference in forecasting performance between the two models is established for many countries, but the results are mixed in their strength. The evidence for unemployment hysteresis in Austria, Finland, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Japan and Sweden is, however, convincing. For no country can unambiguous support for a mean reverting unemployment rate be found.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 38, no 3, 779-792 p.
Keyword [en]
Unit root, Persistence, Labour market
National Category
Research subject
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-132025DOI: 10.1007/s00181-009-0290-xISI: 000275753600014OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-132025DiVA: diva2:356648
Available from: 2010-10-13 Created: 2010-10-13 Last updated: 2013-08-26Bibliographically approved

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Gustavsson, Magnus
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