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Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
2009 (English)In: Scandinavian Journal of Economics, ISSN 0347-0520, E-ISSN 1467-9442, Vol. 111, no 2, 387-415 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Within a decision-making group, such as a central bank's monetary-policy committee, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system and, accordingly, a particular predictive density—or fan chart—associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 111, no 2, 387-415 p.
Keyword [en]
Forecasts, predictive density, linear opinion pool
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Research subject
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-132097DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2009.01569.xISI: 000265713400008OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-132097DiVA: diva2:356933
Available from: 2010-10-14 Created: 2010-10-14 Last updated: 2010-12-29Bibliographically approved

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