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A high-resolution stochastic model of domestic activity patterns and electricity demand
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics. (Built Environment Energy Systems Group (BEESG))
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Solid State Physics.
2010 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 87, no 6, 1880-1892 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Realistic time-resolved data on occupant behaviour, presence and energy use are important inputs to various types of simulations, including performance of small-scale energy systems and buildings' indoor climate, use of lighting and energy demand. This paper presents a modelling framework for stochastic generation of high-resolution series of such data. The model generates both synthetic activity sequences of individual household members, including occupancy states, and domestic electricity demand based on these patterns. The activity-generating model, based on non-homogeneous Markov chains that are tuned to an extensive empirical time-use data set, creates a realistic spread of activities over time, down to a 1-min resolution. A detailed validation against measurements shows that modelled power demand data for individual households as well as aggregate demand for an arbitrary number of households are highly realistic in terms of end-use composition, annual and diurnal variations, diversity between households, short time-scale fluctuations and load coincidence. An important aim with the model development has been to maintain a sound balance between complexity and output quality. Although the model yields a high-quality output, the proposed model structure is uncomplicated in comparison to other available domestic load models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 87, no 6, 1880-1892 p.
Keyword [en]
Bottom-up, Domestic electricity demand, Load model, Markov chain, Stochastic
National Category
Engineering and Technology
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-132899DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.11.006ISI: 000278306300010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-132899DiVA: diva2:359583
Available from: 2010-10-28 Created: 2010-10-28 Last updated: 2016-04-18Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. System Studies and Simulations of Distributed Photovoltaics in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>System Studies and Simulations of Distributed Photovoltaics in Sweden
2010 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) capacity is increasing worldwide, mainly due to extensive subsidy schemes for renewable electricity generation. A majority of newly installed systems are distributed small-scale systems located in distribution grids, often at residential customers. Recent developments suggest that such distributed PV generation (PV-DG) could gain more interest in Sweden in the near future. With prospects of decreasing system prices, an extensive integration does not seem impossible.

In this PhD thesis the opportunities for utilisation of on-site PV generation and the consequences of a widespread introduction are studied. The specific aims are to improve modelling of residential electricity demand to provide a basis for simulations, to study load matching and grid interaction of on-site PV and to add to the understanding of power system impacts.

Time-use data (TUD) provided a realistic basis for residential load modelling. Both a deterministic and a stochastic approach for generating different types of end-use profiles were developed. The models are capable of realistically reproducing important electric load properties such as diurnal and seasonal variations, short time-scale fluctuations and random load coincidence.

The load matching capability of residential on-site PV was found to be low by default but possible to improve to some extent by different measures. Net metering reduces the economic effects of the mismatch and has a decisive impact on the production value and on the system sizes that are reasonable to install for a small-scale producer.

Impacts of large-scale PV-DG on low-voltage (LV) grids and on the national power system were studied. Power flow studies showed that voltage rise in LV grids is not a limiting factor for integration of PV-DG. Variability and correlations with large-scale wind power were determined using a scenario for large-scale building-mounted PV. Profound impacts on the power system were found only for the most extreme scenarios.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2010. 110 p.
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 781
Photovoltaics, Solar energy, Distributed generation, Load modelling, Time-use data, Markov chain, Power flow, Power system
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Engineering Science
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-132907 (URN)978-91-554-7931-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2010-12-10, Häggsalen, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Uppsala, 13:15 (English)
Felaktigt tryckt som Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology 711Available from: 2010-11-18 Created: 2010-10-28 Last updated: 2011-03-21Bibliographically approved

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Widén, JoakimWäckelgård, Ewa
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