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Adult age differences in the realism of confidence judgments: Overconfidence, format dependence, and cognitive predictors
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
2008 (English)In: Psychology and Aging, ISSN 0882-7974, E-ISSN 1939-1498, Vol. 23, no 3, 531-544 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Realistic confidence judgments are essential to everyday functioning, but few studies have addressed the issue of age differences in overconfidence. Therefore, the authors examined this issue with probability judgment and intuitive confidence intervals in a sample of 122 healthy adults (ages: 35-40, 55-60, 70-75 years). In line with predictions based on the naive sampling model (P. Justin, A. Winnian, & P. Hansson, 2007), substantial format dependence was observed, with extreme overconfidence when confidence was expressed as an intuitive confidence interval but not when confidence was expressed as a probability judgment. Moreover, an age-related increase in overconfidence was selectively observed when confidence was expressed as intuitive confidence intervals. Structural equation modeling indicated that the age-related increases in overconfidence were mediated by a general cognitive ability factor that may reflect executive processes. Finally, the results indicated that part of the negative influence of increased age on general ability may be compensated for by an age-related increase in domain-relevant knowledge.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2008. Vol. 23, no 3, 531-544 p.
Keyword [en]
adult age difference, overconfidence, probability judgment, cognitive predictors
National Category
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-140357DOI: 10.1037/a0012782ISI: 000259422200005PubMedID: 18808243OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-140357DiVA: diva2:383478
Available from: 2011-01-05 Created: 2011-01-05 Last updated: 2016-04-27

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