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Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production: comparisons of four models
The University of Newcastle, School of Engineering.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. (Globala Energisystem)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
University of New South Wales, Institute of Environmental Studies.
The University of Newcastle, School of Engineering.
2011 (English)In: International Journal of Coal Geology, ISSN 0166-5162, E-ISSN 1872-7840, Vol. 86, no 4, 329-341 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail and two recoverable resource estimates determined namely Standard and High. The Standard case calculated the likely recoverable coal resources in Australia to be 317 Gt, whereas the High scenario determined the maximal amount of recoverable coal resources at 367 Gt. Different modelling approaches (Logistic, Gompertz, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models) were used to project fossil fuel production and the projections of the relative approaches were compared. Good agreement was found between the Logistic, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models with production peaking in 2119 +/- 6 at between 1.9 and 3.3 Gt/y. Contrasting these projections the Gompertz curves peak in 2084 +/- 5 at 1-1.1 Gt/y. It was argued that the Logistic, Static and Dynamic models are more likely to produce accurate projections than the Gompertz curve. The production forecast is based on existing technology and constraints and a qualitative discussion is presented on possible influences on future production, namely: export capacity, climate change, overburden management, environmental and social impacts and export market issues.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 86, no 4, 329-341 p.
Keyword [en]
Australia, Coal reserves, Coal production, Peak coal, Modelling
National Category
Natural Sciences Energy Systems Mineral and Mine Engineering
Research subject
Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-155245DOI: 10.1016/j.coal.2011.03.006ISI: 000291377300004OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-155245DiVA: diva2:425270
Available from: 2011-06-21 Created: 2011-06-20 Last updated: 2017-12-11

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Höök, Mikael

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