Climate sensitivity of Storglaciären, Sweden: an intercomparison of mass-balance models using ERA-40 re-analysis and regional climate model data
2007 (English)In: Annals of glaciology, Vol 46, 2007 / [ed] Sharp M, 2007, Vol. 46, no 1, 342-348 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
Estimates of glacier contributions to future sea-level rise are often computed from mass-balance sensitivities derived for a set of representative glaciers. Our purpose is to investigate how mass-balance projections and sensitivities vary when using different approaches to compute the glacier mass balance. We choose Storglaciären, Sweden, as a test site and apply five different models including temperature-index and energy-balance approaches further varying in spatial discretization. The models are calibrated using daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis (ERA-40) data. We compute static mass-balance sensitivities and cumulative mass balances until 2100 based on daily temperatures predicted by a regional climate model. Net mass-balance sensitivities to a +1 K perturbation and a 10% increase in precipitation spanned from −0.41 to −0.61 and from 0.19 to 0.22 m a−1, respectively. The cumulative mass balance for the period 2002-2100 in response to the climate-model predicted temperature changes varied between −81 and −92 m for four models, but was −121 m for the fully distributed detailed energy-balance model. This indicates that mass losses may be underestimated if temperature-index methods are used instead of detailed energy-balance approaches that account for the effects of temperature changes on all energy-balance components individually. Our results suggest that future glacier predictions are sensitive to the choice of the mass-balance model broadening the spectrum in uncertainties.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 46, no 1, 342-348 p.
, Annals of glaciology, ISSN 46 ; 0260-3055
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-14906DOI: 10.3189/172756407782871503ISBN: 978-0-946417-41-4OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-14906DiVA: diva2:42677
International Symposium on Cryospheric Indicators of Global Climate Change Cambridge, ENGLAND, AUG 21-25, 2006