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Climate sensitivity of Storglaciären, Sweden: an intercomparison of mass-balance models using ERA-40 re-analysis and regional climate model data
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Air and Water Science.
Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
2007 (English)In: Annals of glaciology, Vol 46, 2007 / [ed] Sharp M, 2007, Vol. 46, no 1, 342-348 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Estimates of glacier contributions to future sea-level rise are often computed from mass-balance sensitivities derived for a set of representative glaciers. Our purpose is to investigate how mass-balance projections and sensitivities vary when using different approaches to compute the glacier mass balance. We choose Storglaciären, Sweden, as a test site and apply five different models including temperature-index and energy-balance approaches further varying in spatial discretization. The models are calibrated using daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis (ERA-40) data. We compute static mass-balance sensitivities and cumulative mass balances until 2100 based on daily temperatures predicted by a regional climate model. Net mass-balance sensitivities to a +1 K perturbation and a 10% increase in precipitation spanned from −0.41 to −0.61 and from 0.19 to 0.22 m a−1, respectively. The cumulative mass balance for the period 2002-2100 in response to the climate-model predicted temperature changes varied between −81 and −92 m for four models, but was −121 m for the fully distributed detailed energy-balance model. This indicates that mass losses may be underestimated if temperature-index methods are used instead of detailed energy-balance approaches that account for the effects of temperature changes on all energy-balance components individually. Our results suggest that future glacier predictions are sensitive to the choice of the mass-balance model broadening the spectrum in uncertainties.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 46, no 1, 342-348 p.
, Annals of glaciology, ISSN 46 ; 0260-3055
Keyword [en]
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-14906DOI: 10.3189/172756407782871503ISBN: 978-0-946417-41-4OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-14906DiVA: diva2:42677
International Symposium on Cryospheric Indicators of Global Climate Change Cambridge, ENGLAND, AUG 21-25, 2006
Available from: 2008-05-15 Created: 2008-05-15 Last updated: 2011-03-25Bibliographically approved

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