uu.seUppsala University Publications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
A new model for 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Type 1 diabetes: from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Family Medicine and Preventive Medicine.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Geriatrics.
Show others and affiliations
2011 (English)In: Diabetic Medicine, ISSN 0742-3071, E-ISSN 1464-5491, Vol. 28, no 10, 1213-1220 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Aims: We assessed the association between risk factors and cardiovascular disease in an observational study of patients with Type 1 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

Methods: A derivation sample of 3661 patients, aged 30-65 years, 6.1% with previous cardiovascular disease, baseline 2002, and 197 cardiovascular disease events when followed for 5 years until 2007. A separate validation data set of 4484 patients, baseline 2003, 201 cardiovascular disease events when followed for 4 years.

Results: Adjusted hazard ratios at Cox regression for fatal/non-fatal cardiovascular disease were: diabetes duration 2.76 (2.21-3.44); onset age 1.47 (1.21-1.78); log ratio total cholesterol:HDL cholesterol 1.26 (1.09-1.45); log HbA(1c) 1.19 (1.03-1.38); log systolic blood pressure 1.17 (1.01-1.34) (1 SD increase in continuous variables); smoker 1.76 (1.27-2.46); macroalbuminuria (> 200 mu g/min) 1.52 (1.10-2.10); previous cardiovascular disease 3.51 (2.54-4.84). All eight variables were used to elaborate a risk equation for 5-year cardiovascular disease risk. Regarding calibration in the derivation data set, ratio predicted 5-year risk (mean 5.4 +/- 7.9%) to observed event rate was 1.0. Discrimination was sufficient, with C-statistic 0.83, sensitivity and specificity 72 and 77%, respectively, for the top quartile of predicted risk. Similarly, calibration and discrimination were adequate in the validation data set: ratio of predicted 4-year risk/observed rate 0.94, C-statistic 0.80, sensitivity and specificity 62 and 77%, respectively, for the top quartile.

Conclusions: This 5-year cardiovascular disease risk model from a large observational study of patients with Type 1 diabetes in routine care showed adequate calibration and discrimination and can be useful for clinical practice. It should also be tested in patients with Type 1 diabetes from other countries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 28, no 10, 1213-1220 p.
Keyword [en]
cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, macrovascular disease, modelling, register
National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-159779DOI: 10.1111/j.1464-5491.2011.03342.xISI: 000295003600014PubMedID: 21627687OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-159779DiVA: diva2:447771
Available from: 2011-10-13 Created: 2011-10-10 Last updated: 2017-12-08Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMed

Authority records BETA

Cederholm, JanZethelius, Björn

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Cederholm, JanZethelius, Björn
By organisation
Family Medicine and Preventive MedicineGeriatrics
In the same journal
Diabetic Medicine
Medical and Health Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 409 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf