Growth rates of global energy systems and future outlooks
2012 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 21, no 1, 23-41 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems' growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid "oil boom"-development - i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events - their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 21, no 1, 23-41 p.
Global energy systems, growth rates, energy forecasting, scenarios, long term forecasting, evaluating forecasts
Energy Systems Other Physics Topics Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Other Environmental Engineering
Research subject Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources; Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-162738DOI: 10.1007/s11053-011-9162-0OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-162738DiVA: diva2:461597
ProjectsSTandUP for energy