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Growth rates of global energy systems and future outlooks
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. (Global Energy Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
China University of Petroleum - Beijing. (School of Business Administration)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)
University of Liverpool. (Oil Depletion Impact Group)
2012 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 21, no 1, 23-41 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems' growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid "oil boom"-development - i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events - their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 21, no 1, 23-41 p.
Keyword [en]
Global energy systems, growth rates, energy forecasting, scenarios, long term forecasting, evaluating forecasts
National Category
Energy Systems Other Physics Topics Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Other Environmental Engineering
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources; Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-162738DOI: 10.1007/s11053-011-9162-0OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-162738DiVA: diva2:461597
Projects
STandUP for energy
Available from: 2011-12-05 Created: 2011-12-05 Last updated: 2017-12-08

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Höök, Mikael

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